Member Info for Size82

Hi Ndn71, to achieve statistical significance how big a sample do you think would be required to test progression to serious disease as a primary measure and do you think it is possible to do that through a platform trial?

Hi Manifesto, if a serious error has been made by mixing steroids with SNG001 (knowingly or unknowing) then I think it will come out in RM's debrief and in any new trial protocols (if it gets to that). I'm pretty sure Polygon will be looking for accountability with Synairgen and / or Parexel if mistakes were made. Jury's out until I hear more. I've no idea what stance the regulators who authorised the trial would take either....

The-Lockie, read Beforegolfs notes from a shareholder who is reputed to have spoken with RM yesterday.

I agree with this. Seems very odd the mid trial evaluation would show key data points being met only for the final data set to bomb. I hope more info is revealed after RM conducts a stewards enquiry.

I'll second that Matml74. Lets hope RM and the team can salvage something as there are glimpses of hope in the RNS, but it feels a long way back. Hope everyone is doing OK. A painful day that will live long in the memory.

Agree Manifesto, and I thought the trial was checked half way through so surprised this issue wasn't picked up then.

I emailed investor relations 30 mins ago to see if RM was due to give an interview. Recieved a delivery failure notification !

I hope you're right Axe C. All eye on any Polygon's next move.

Lol. Do you think they will?

Ndn71, I saw discussions on waiting to release the main results until after the 90 days as to not bias the final long covid data set. However, I can't recall debate on releasing both data sets at once. What was the consensus?

I'd be interested to hear opinions and apologies if this has previously been discussed.

Does anyone think the board may have decided to release the main results alongside the long covid data? This would of course be contrary to previous corporate statements, but might explain the wait especially if crunching the main data set is taking longer than originally anticipated. I can't imagine they'd sit on the main results, but they might be top and tailing them / searching for inferences while crunching the long covid data (which might take a few weeks). If the main results were looking relatively weak they might feel the long covid data will help with the EUA.

Alternatively, main results could still be on track for the early '22 release, but as debated the other day time is ticking on what constitutes 'early 2022' IMO.

HelloSanDiego, the c.a. 80% figure Doc mentioned is for respiratory drugs, rather than all types getting market.

Becontrarian, I agree. You can't really underwrite the upside as who knows what governments will feel is a necessary amount of sng001 to purchase / stockpile, subject to results. The sp will be driven by earnings. As the great Thomas Phelps said. Buy right and sit tight. Imo you shouldnt make sell decisions for non investment reasons....like oh I had a pre conceived idea that I'd sell at x price despite the narrative not changing... .. the best time to sell is usually never.

Dunk, Elgol, I don't think they could sit on such commercially sensitive data without releasing it and instead tout it around the market to potential buyers. In any case you'd have thought the big pharmaceutical companies will already have idea of the price they'd be willing to pay for the company under a number of scenarios (quality of results and anticpated demand). I'd expect big pharma and possibly private equity are ready to pounce, subject to satisfactory results.

I guess the question is what constitutes a fail! Given the weight of academic study/ science and safety data, I suspect this gets to market on results quite abit weaker than the PH II readout. I'd be massively disappointed if they were much lower, but it feels like there is quite a bit of leeway (stand to be corrected). Any way hopefully we will all find out soon! Stay patient all and be lucky...

Luckenbach, I believe SNG001 lasts 3 years refrigerated and 5 frozen so straight away you can see they'll be reoccurring revenues for stockpiling. Re. Market size, think about the total population of all 17 countries involved in sprinter trials. Even a tiny percentage of that figure gives you a very large number of sales......
All subject to a great phase III read out of course ;-)

Incorrect Sid, the upside comes from stockpiling and not from immediate need to treat hospitalised patients with covid. The latter just gets this approved quickly and starts to generate sales, which could be substantial.

I think upupandaway has been misinterpreted on NCYT. Rather than comparing the two companies, I thought he/ she was simply using NCYT as an example of where investors sold out to early given where the sp got to (I.e. we should all be mindful of selling out too early here).

Seaboy, I have no intention of selling out / slicing unless the sp went absolutely nuts very quickly (I.e. way above broker upside price targets). Who knows with the right media coverage and groups such as Wall St bets out there. Subject to Stella results, I envisage the sp being driven higher over time on earnings as countries stock pile and as COPD use eventually comes online . I've been building a sizeable position since April '20. I'd quite like the company to remain indipendent so I can be hold for the long term. If a buyout happens the so be it / great. At least we've got Polygon aligned with us behind the scenes and they'll be pressurising the board to squeeze ever last penny. Also, the management team are nicely aligned with us which I like. I think RM has c.a 750k shares for example and I believe new recruits have share options . Let's just hope the results are great. Fingers crossed. Happy Friday all.

Oakleaf, how come you can't disseminate info from one board to another? Are you talking about the infamous Reddit board?