Member Info for Size82

Good knowledge ??

Sell by the looks of it. Chunky 600k share trade....

Richlist, I don't think so as there weren't enough participants progessing to severe illness in the uk home trial. A better bet would be combining ph II (hospital trial) and ph III Sprinter for reduction in progression to severe illness / death. This would have efficacy around 40% (I think) and statistical significance. This is approach is just speculation though as Synairgen have not mentioned their intention to do this. Not sure why.

We await the sprinter deep dive which is taking longer than anticipated.....
Come on RM & Co. Pull your finger out!
GLA

Hi Andy, re. Your comments this afternoon on timing. A platform trial might take another 18 months plus, but I'd expect Activ 2 phase III to be quicker and they can stop the trial early if data is looking good. Obviously it has to start first!
Re. Commercialisation. Imo the jury is out on the Synairgen team until the Sprinter analysis is published. There are alot of unanswered questions although it seems clear the trial was underpowered. To be fair they tried to be commercial going alone, when in hindsight a JV would might have been better. I would say this though. I envisage Polygon to start becoming increasingly influential in trying to steer Synairgen's direction. At 29.9% (assuming they get there) you'd think they might start throwing their weight about behind the scenes, certainly pushing for an EUA submission if the sprinter data has enough about it. Any way good luck with your investment. Fingers crossed.

Andy, I think you missed a scenario which is more likely a fund raise, aka platform trial. I see fund raise as highly improbable unless Activ 2 is cancelled and other platform trials don't work out. If covid was petering out then I'd be worried about Activ 2 and platforms finishing, but I just don't see it. They've already stated platform as a likely / possible way forward. By the way how did you derive those percentages?! Can't say I agree with any of that....

Hi TLW, at first look the sp feels mispriced right now as it is assumed the sp will rerate, at the latest, on the Actic 2 pH II data. Yet the odd thing is the market already knows that data is good enough to pass and enter ph III. Despite this, and on balance, I think the current sp reflects a combination of uncertainty / risk on the ability to get the drug to market via Activ 2 ph III (or a different platform trial), the trauma of the sprinter results and heavy selling / buying by polar and polygon respectively. I've just had a feeling the sp won't rerate until polygon have finished loading up..... and they're not far off. GLA

TommyD_19, thanks for the response, great post. GLA

Re. SPRINTER deepdive and the potential for comibining phase II & III results together, which has been discussed recently. Will combining the 48 patients from phase II with 309 patients from ph III definitely result in statistical significance for reduction in progression to severe illness or death?

Manifesto, apologies for misspelling your name.

Just to add to Manifisto's comment on SNG undertaking the analysis, it is worth mentioning that Dr P Monk (Synairgen's Chief Scientific Officer) was the lead author in the peer reviewed Lancet paper on the Ph II results.

Well said Manifesto!

You can assign a probability (range) to an outcome successful or otherwise, and I would argue that is not a gamble more a calculation, but we can agree to disagree. Good luck with your investment (or gamble :-). For what it's worth I think you have a high probability of getting your money back or better, but a large chunk of patience will be required. GLA

Sorry but what has betting on horse racing got to do with investing?

I strongly disagree. You can diligently UW investment opportunities focusing on mitigating risk to protect the down side where the worst case scenario is you lose very little / get your money back.

I agree Doc83. Interviews after the SN001 update RNS on the 3rd March would have given RM the perfect platform to start communicating the way forward to shareholders and the wider industry. He could have added some clarity to that RNS which is vague on timescales. I actually think BoD / RM silence is helping Polygon so they may have advised him not to make statements until the sprinter deepdive is finalised / published. GLA

Fingers cross they're able to come up with the goods! Polygon would stand to make a fortune in that situation..... making far more than they would have done otherwise and at a higher rate of return. Probably why they continue to buy along with additional control. GLA

Andy, so you don't think the review of Sprinter will reveal anything meriting an EUA application, even if they combine phase II & phase III results as Brand was alluding to earlier today?

Assuming no material news at least we know it won't be long until they hit 29.99% (assuming that is their goal). My gut feeling is only then will the sp start to rise.

Good share

Thanks for all your responses. Glad to have stimulated some debate. GLA