Member Info for Size82

Hi all, what's everyone's expectations on timings for Further Sprinter Ph III Analysis and 90 day long covid data release?

I thought last week's RNS was really quite vague. The longest process and timeline I could extrapolate with reference to a perr review journal publication would be the 4 months it took for The Lancet publication. However, given Synairgen have already stated the topline results warrant the drug's inclusion in a platform trial you'd think the analysis would be much, much quicker (weeks not months). Even more so if they see any data that merits an EUA application. While the criticism is some times a little harsh, Synairgen aren't exactly renowned for their speed on this board so it would be interesting to hear views on realistic timings.

In addition, is it possible or even likely that the topline long covid data will be released separately to the Sprinter deepdive? Any thoughts appreciated. GLA

Personally I don't think the upside has changed, just the probability of achieving it has diminished. Just need a bloody EUA! Let's hope the Sprinter deepdive comes up with the goods. GLA

Thanks TommyD_19, thats quite a bit higher than i thought / could remember.

Not that i can see this happening at all, but the most they paid was probably about 190 gbx.

The key bit you are missing is that to make a offer for the remaining 70% of shares it needs to be at the highest price over the previous year!

Be slow to buy, be slow to sell

Andy, what about an EUA based on evidence derived of sprinter deepdive data? That remains a possibility especially as the 36% reduction in serve illness and deaths was a wisker away from being statistically significant.....

I'd be amazed if there aren't some nuggets of SNGOLD in that data set.
GLA

TommyD_19, I completely agree. I would be surprised if they could reach c.a. 29% at much less than £1 average. Even if then they'd have to have had a pre sprinter average of 150 gbx and buy 11% post sprinter at 20 gbx.

Good post Brand

I wonder if they'd have gone for an EUA with 36.2% reduction in "Progression to severe disease or death within 35 days" had the p value been less than 0.05, rather than p=0.119. Probably would have done and might still attempt it if further evidence from the Sprinter deepdive review supports it.

Good post Doc83
I share others sentiment as well that it is a bit frustrating the Omicron/Delta IV wasn't released earlier. It would be interesting to know how long they sat on that info. That said would I really have sliced to be on a free ride with Sprinter results due. Probably not, but would have given me the option.... GLA

I would have thought they had plenty of time to buy the dips and their average for the 18% could well be below 170 gbx, perhaps in 150 to 160 gbx range.

Nail on the head their Doc83

Post sprinter RNS they were buying in this range and lower if they started buying on the 21st Feb.
I thought they were buying yesterday. 1 share sells which I've noticed previously when they've been buying. Might have been coincidence though....

Hi HSD, I'm so sure Activ 2 is priced in at these levels. I think the sp is still massively suppressed from the Sprinter results and continues to be so due to wider market conditions.

Kevin1977, assuming the Sprinter data deepdive analysis isn't ready yet , wouldn't pretty much anything that RM might say in an interview have to be released in an RNS first? Anything over and above what was released last Monday on strategy going fowards (I.e. Activ 2 data and progression to phase III / exploring platform trials)....
The sp was always going tank on a poor sprinter result even if its irrational given the trial failed, not the drug and we are in a phase III of Activ 2. RM talking to proactive isn't going to materially impact the sp. The sp will rise again on positive sprinter deepdive data / long covid data, Activ 2 phase II data / starting Active 2 pH III and possibly further Polygon TR1s up to c.a. 29% . Some or all of these are all likely so we just need sit tight, and if you are a believer take the opportunity to buy more on the cheap. Just my thoughts....
GLA

Looks like Polygon might be buying again

Stay strong TLWilliams and good luck. Good posting BTW.

Sprinter perhaps had c.a. 80% to 85% probability of success, so the result going the other way is really really tough, especiallyif you weighted your portfolio accordingly relative the range of likely payouts upon commercialisation....

Question is, what's the probability of Activ 2 trial success. It could again also be quite high given the appatent rigorous nature of how the US are conducting the trial programme. It will give comfort when ph III starts and the ph II data is due soon. However, the current sp might be offering very good value, but of course doubling down could be throwing good money after bad. Of course everyone has their right to vent frustration. I just think it is still abit too early for RM to say anything yet on the sprinter data deepdive. I think alot of patience is going to be required with this one. GLA!

Has anyone thought about a range of probabilities for Activ 2 Phase III success (defined as commercialisation)?