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Probably the most simple explanation is also the most plausible. I assume they think Activ 2 will likely prove a success and are taking the opportunity to buy up on the cheap / average down. Probably also making sure they can block hostile take over and / or influence BoD more. At worst, perhaps just be averaging down for a fraction of their pre phase 3 investment to lower their breakeven in event COPD is the route out, perhaps via a take over.

Hi Niceday, I think one if the key reasons they went global was to ensure the trial would have enough patients to enrol. I can remember RM saying there was no garentee the trial would even finish at the outset. In hindsight, undertaking a trial accross 17 different countries with differening standards of baseline care may have compromised the trial and will have been a nightmare to run. It may yet turn out some gems of data though.

Thanks Matterhorn, will take a look

I completely agree Doc83 - along with the impact of steroids on patients receiving SNG001, it's perhaps the most important question in my mind which needs answering. It's meant to be the sense check to avoid wasting funds and potentially avoiding bankruptcy for a small R&D company.

Hi TLWilliams,
Re. Putting everything in place prematurely. I guess they had to do this on the basis Sprinter results would be good and I doubt it cost much. At the time of the Ashfield Partnership RNS it was widely assumed they'd had seen some headline data upon unblinding, but in hindsight this seems not to have been the case. If they hadn't put the infrastructure in place and the results had been good then I guess we'd all be moaning now at potential delays. Bit of a red herring along with the job adverts for many though.

Agreed on Activ 2 - looking for forward to seeing ph II results and starting ph III) - I think this still has legs, and i look forward to the deep dive analysis on Sprinter and an explanation from the board on what went wrong and how same mistakes will be avoided going forwards. We'll have to stay patient on timings for the deepdive i reckon.

Btw, somme great posting over the weekend from a number of people, too many to name. I think they would have help a great number of people still reeling from last Monday. GLA!

That's a critical one SNG00Gold. I think we all assumed we'd have a acceptable results as the trial wasn't pulled at the half way point.

Gunto, probably as they have form. You're right though, pure speculation.

Seaboy, agree with most of that on Polygon, however, they might be looking at activ 2 P3 readout and see the potential for the real big bucks still. Maybe they do initiate a sale to break even or make a moderate 2x EM within the next six to twelve months, but they might wait until the product is commercialised if they think Activ 2 ph3 has a high probability of success. I'm fairly sure they'd wait another 12, 18, 24 months if they thought they'd be able to generate a 5x to 10x EM EM (or more) versus a quick sale to break even or make a moderate profit. Its fair enough to speculate though. Its just we don't know what they are thinking other than that they are still buying (although not today by the looks of the volumes). GLA

I'm hopeful and have averaged down alot. Still very raw from Monday though....
GLA

I said agreed doc, meant Manifesto in that response.

Sorry Manifesto

Agree Doc, let's hope it is soon. I just feel this week was too soon to say anything scientific or strategic.

MrCosts, I agree with everyone's sentiment that we need an update ASAP from RM providing a debrief on the sprinter results and next steps. The use of steroids and SNG001 needs clarifying urgently. The base line standard of care was always likely to improve in the placebo group (which I think we all agree should have been recognised ahead of time and factored into the trial design), however, I think we need to hear more from the horses mouth on steroid use with SNG001. It is still unclear if it hadn't been used with SNG001 would the results have been much better?! To me that is key. If yes, then Activ 2 results or platform trials could result in standout results and he product be monetized .

Re. Management teams bonuses paid in 2021. They more than achieved their objectives for that period of time hence 100%. I didnt hear many complaints at the time. In the subsequent period they failed and it would be hard to argue they should get more than zero. The BoD are also aligned with shareholders through their stock holdings. Not only are they likely to be reeling emotional from a professional perspective at the disappointment of the sprinter results, but also financially. Rm has c.a. 750,000 shares from memory.

For me the jury is out until we hear more. I suspect this week was too early to say anything strategic or scientific, but I'll be peeved if there is still silence this time next week. In the mean time no doubt Polygon will continue to hoover up and it gives time for us to average down if you're still a believer. GLA

Seaboy, I guess it depends on whether they think the Activ 2 programme can genuinely lead to the big bucks, or whether they engineer a sale on the cheap as part of their contingency plan to average down and exit quickly either to break even or perhaps make a 2x EM. If there isn't a willing buyer then they might not have a choice to wait around for Activ 2!! Either way though I agree with sentiment posted below that I'm happy they are invested as I'm sure they'll be looking to hold the BoD to account on the sprinter trial debacle and the next step plan. GLA

Alkin, I don't disagree the USA has been the focus for Synairgen and rightly so, but i think you should be aware an EUA application would have been submitted shortly in the USA on the back of the Sprinter results had they been any good. That's why the jobs were posted and the Ashfield partnership was put in place.

Alkin why would "Activ-2 P3 positive results have always been the end game"? Sure, they give a second bite of the cherry and provide a fall back position, but surely can't have been considered the main event by any instutional or retail investor. Had results been good in Sprinter Ph III then Synairgen would now be in the process of submitting an EUA. I think you have to be realistic and the time frames for phase III Activ 2 are way out. A positive Actic 2 phase III result could lead to a stockpiling earnings stream, but again, Synairgen haven't even seen the Activ 2 phase II results themselves (they might be marginal) and phase III hasn't even started yet so it's not exactly full steam ahead. For me progression to phase III of Activ 2 led to an element of derisk, but the sp was always going to collapse on the back of the type of phase III sprinter trial results we saw on released Monday. Just my take.

I agree, I added yesterday morning. The strategic play seems to be to average down below the likely average Polygon will have once they hit c.a. 29%. I made some rough estimates of 100 to 110 gbx. Can't see it being much lower, but all ears to hear other opinions. Of course it could end up being a case of throwing good money after bad, but fortunately didn't cost me much to do this. They say it's the hope that kills you!!

On another note I hope every one is doing okay after Monday x

By averaging down to say £1.10 by accumulating 25% +. I agree on that, but what is their exit? They can't trade out of that holding unless the sp is elevated or the company is sold at any price above their average sp.

Hi Woodstock, isnt the difference between the home trials in the UK and those in the States is that the latter are focused on high risk category patients, thus SNG001 is more likely to have shown an measurable impact. Stand to be corrected, but that's why I assume the data has been good enough to progress to Activ 2 phase III. In the UK home trial not enough patients were severely ill to show a material benefit. Having seen first hand what even omicron can do to a severely diabetic person (type 1) I am hopeful there is a path to an EUA (the bar is not that high remember) via the Activ route or sale to a bigger pharmaceutical company to take this further. GLA

Thanks for your quick response, good analysis. Unbelievably frustrating. Trial of the scale required just doesnt seem feasible in an altered environment (Omicron, high levels of vaccinations, improved care etc.). Sadly, it feels the company had one shot to get this right and a narrow window which has now closed. Gutted they didn't manage to pull it off. Hopefully I'm wrong and they can reserect something with learnings from ph 3 on a platform trial, but the time scales are pushed way out. Perhaps, something comes of Activ 2 (best hope it seems, but a slow burn ). In hind sight a jv / licencing deal with big pharma summer of 2020 would have been a better bet than going alone.