Member Info for Sisyphus

For the first time I can remember, my outlook here has changed from cautious optimism to actual excitement for the future. These interims and accompanying RNS are the sign that we have very effectively turned the corner. We have the wind in our sails and the horizon looks clear - good prospects ahead. Rosbunker is the treasure in our hold.

We have the opportunity at this time to build a really strong and pro-active Board and we will make sure we use this opportunity wisely and in the best interest of all the shareholders. To have done all the pumping upgrades, deepened the channel at Dan Balt to accept 80000dwt ships and to have achieved decent interim profit with increased cash reserves is no mean feat. 'Strong summer trading' means Monjasa has kicked in firmly and that leads to the possibility of increased contracts and also increased likelihood of near-term expansion. We have 3 strategically based terminals - all stand-alone but capable of multiple functions as a group. Rosbunker is the treasure-chest. This is a strong, secure and growing business. With strong, proactive BoD support coming in, we should move forward progressively and see shareholder value increase 'significantly' in the short to medium term IMHO. Bring it on.

For Adrian read Richard (fast type error!)

Profitable, cash-generative (despite new upgrades) Strong Summer trading. No change in date or valuation data for Rosbunker sale/resolution ie before April 2014. If anything, the tone intimates that conclusion is imminent. We are now 'up and running' with Monjassa - hence the strong summer trading. On a separate note I'm personally over the moon that Adrian has stepped out of the ring. With only 100k shares, his drive and enthusiasm has always been muted. The enthusiasm that is evident from Simon on the new board is tangible. The guy has transformed Baltic to Pan European Terminals and, since he was personally responsible for securing our Rosbunker assets (see finals notes) I am sure that sale/cash release is very close. Since he holds nearly 5 million shares as opposed to Healeys 100k and Simsoms 20k might I be so forward as to suggest that Simon proposed some kind of special dividend to shareholders on sale of Rosbunker??? That would be popular with everyone - apart from them!!! All IMHO as usual. Hold tight or increase your holding for windfall plus good year ahead. NAV is now well over 2x Market cap!

That sounds a fair assessment given the outlook. The company has certainly built a strong multipoint transhipment and bunkering portfolio with Aabenraa [Dan Balt] at the axis - hence the major interest in it's performance since August 1st when Monjassa contract commenced. The mid 2014 target of 40-50p is definitely realistic and certainly allows for upgrades. The first 6 months of this year saw Dan Balt go from inherited [low value] storage contracts to Contago-led storage/transhipment. The divestment of the legacy contracts allowed us effective financial control of those new contracts. We will have been constrained slightly by the harbour deepening to allow 80dwt vessels [double the existing 40dwt access] and some costs will have been taken on the completion of the SOTA negative pressure German pumping transfer system so the interims [as long as we were making a profit] are really a reflection of the ramp-up to the Monjassa deal. It is interesting to note that we were working to capacity [see RNS] despite the upgrading of the ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore transfer equipment. Projections for H2 1nd 2014 are going to be the key since Dan Balt is effectively the hub of our operation being between Baltic Top and PBI Rotterdam. An interesting aspect of all the research I do has thrown up a possibility I have passed to the BoD. Since Dan Balt is effectively bunkering [mixing and admixing bespoke marine fuels etc] we should be/and are watching Quadrise [QFI]. Why? Quadrise is the producer of marine MSAR2 being trialled my Maersk for fuel consumption reduction in its fleet. The 1,000 ton per day MSAR® manufacturing unit owned by QIL and supporting systems are now installed at the 200,000 barrel per day Orlen Lietuva refinery in Mazeikiai Lithuania and will soon be ready to produce Marine MSAR®2 fuel for supply to Mærsk vessels during 2013. The fuel will be used for the main propulsion of Wärtsilä and MAN Diesel engines on operational Mærsk vessels. Dan Balt is ideally placed with repect to sea channels for the Orlen Lietuva refinery [as are Rosbunker and Baltic Top] - just a thought if the trials are successful. Could be a lucrative mixing opportunity - but thats in the future.

The fact that we have multiple parties interested in acquiring Rosbunker is the reason for the timescale. I'm not sure they are able to give a definitive schedule for resolution because of the possible difference in deals that are on offer. One may well involve a timeframed bid running upto April next year, but IMHO I think we have a lucrative deal [probably with the 'large Russian financial institution'] on the table awaiting legal fine-print. If this is the case, then the process can be concluded swiftly and contracts exchanged. I don't think I can go with the latest cash-balance scenario for several reasons. A week is neither here nor there when we are already 3 months into H2 2013 - we will have a good picture of the Monjassa effect by now. The evolving picture is FAR more important than the actual interims [as long as we are in profit at this transformational juncture from storage to trans-shipment and bunkering] and Rosbunker resolution is the key that unlocks the investment treasure-chest. The proceeds of Rosbunker are effectively equivalent to the total capitalisation of the company!! Even allowing for costs etc we should come away with £20m cash - that buys a lot of new infrastructure and allows a nice little special dividend to be returned to shareholders. That is why I think we have a blunderbus of news in the immediate pipeline and why I, for one, am happy to hold and accumulate on any weakness. [trouble is there isn't any weakness with the prospects I've just mentioned]. All IMHO DYOR

Looks like we're working flat out on Rosbunker as all the interim figures must be well and truly finalised now and ready to release. We know that negotiations are at an advanced stage with 'buyers of substance'; we own our 50% secured under Russian Law and it's highly profitable and we know it's valued at £22.5m. Pan European (excluding it's Rosbunker investment) is a multi-terminal profitable and expanding business. The ONLY hurdle that is stopping this share vaulting into a new trading range is the sale of Rosbunker. The company knows that and the finals indicated that resolution was on track and on target 'before April 2014'. IMHO - I suspect that resolution is now so tangible that we are trying to add it as the 'transformational' step to the interims. Friday is not the day for such a blockbuster - busy weekend with significant RNS early next week?? 

pre-interims looks encouraging. All eyes focused on ramp-up for H2 and 'sale' of Rosbunker.

Baltic Top/PBI/Dan Balt all trading at capacity - yep All upgrades at Dan Balt completed on time and on budget for Monjassa deal commenced August 1st - may have carried exceptional costs but up-and-running from start H2. Transhipment [not storage] - good H2 profits - yep Rosbunker [ growing and profitable Investment] - negotiations in final stages for outright £22.5m sale [to large Russian financial institution or competitor] or bottom line cashflow of £2.5m pa - imminent - yep Lots going on and we are now 3 months into H2 2013 awaiting interims - mouthwatering stuff.

http://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=PAN.L [interesting as an additional pointer] Reckon so - we were promised resolution of the Rosbunker investment before early 2014 in finals - quote - The Directors are confident that any of these options will ensure cash flow is returned to the Group by 1 April 2014 at the latest. I'm inclined to think that this may be imminent in combination with your post. Timelines are tight and the news may have to fall in H2 but I am optimistic of a very favourable outcome since one of the parties mentioned is a large Russian financial institution. This means that competition for a good price is all the better. Let's not forget that Rosbunker is classed as an investment AND is HIGHLY profitable! DYOR as usual.

Methinks something must be stirring with regards to Rosbunker. The games afoot..................??

Totally agree with your observations. I hadn't factored in that we will probably have small exceptional costs associated with bringing Dan Balt upto speed for large Monjassa contract towards end H1. That would probably be best taken at the interim stage since the big ramp-up only occurs at the start of H2 and therefore revenue [and profits] will be very highly skewed to H2. Perhaps I should have pencilled in H1 profits of £1m to £1.2m for H1 but my reasoned figures for the full year still remain at full year £5.7m profit on £30m turnover – strongly weighted to H2. The key will be profit: as long as we are trading profitably at the bottom line in H1, we have the contracts and traction in place to exponentially exploit our resources and Dan Balt is the driver. It is impossible to make comparisons with last year as we have divested Rosbunker as an investment and ring-fenced that at a present value of £22.5m; thus taking away an income stream of c£1.25m (increasing) at the interim stage. The fact that we are presently in the end-stage of negotiations regarding Rosbunker cannot be underestimated since it will either release a capital sum of around £22.5m or bottom line cash-flow of £2.5m a year to our coffers and that will transform the group which is already operationally profitable on all fronts. Quote from the finals: The Group's current 50% holding in Rosbunker is now deemed secure and protected under Russian law. Concurrently, other options for the resolution of the situation are also being pursued by the Directors, and a number of attractive corporate transactions are under negotiation, one of which is with a large Russian financial institution. The Directors consider any one of these possible solutions to be strategically positive for the Group's future.The Directors are confident that any of these options will ensure cash flow is returned to the Group by 1 April 2014 at the latest. Essentially we are trading well below NAV and I am really interested to see projections for the next 6 months which will drive us forward. It was great to see Hepworth Technologies requesting a representative on the Board of Directors – the more involved and diverse the BoD the better. Simon Escott as CEO has done and is doing a Sterling job building Pan European into a major transhipment business. If I had a single concern, it would be that he needs to devolve some of his responsibilities to suitably qualified counterparts and share his deal-making skills to ensure the business continues to prosper. By accepting a rep from Hepworth Technologies onto the board, it is a big step in the right direction – All IMHO.

MCap £22.59m with £22.5m in the bank - plus all your other profitable businesses in for zilch. Heyho what do I know. Certainly seem to be seeing some chunky buys coming in.

Do you think people are actually listening to our posts and doing their own research? Now let me see..............Rosbunker is an investment - not included in our other operations at Dan Balt, PBI and Baltic Top - all of which are working at capacity AND all working profitably........ we get £22.5m for Rosbunker ...................... That means Dan Balt, PBI and Baltic Top are effectively valued at £90,000. Yay; that's a little undervalued =) Seriously - this level of discount is far too big to continue and must seriously begin to align with asset value which is double current MCap.

A £22 million windfall before next years finals is a rather compelling reason to invest. That's one of the reasons we've been quietly accumulating for so long :))) The interims will show we've grasped the baton and ate running, the outlook will show just how fast we are running towards our goal - and the sale of Rosbunker is the £22 million gold medal that we get for our achievement along the way. You've hit the nail on the head - Rosbunker is a cash-cow of a company INVESTMENT that is highly profitable -resolution of sale/cash-flow (as promised) before April 2014 - releases £22m!! That's equal to our total MCap!! All our other operations are cash-generating and 'working at capacity' - and have a greater value than that. DYOR and do the maths on it.

I agree that this week [Tuesday?] looks good for interims, but there's an awful lot of good news pending. We know that we are working at maximum capacity on all three sites. We have stripped site 4 [Rosbunker] and transferred it from asset to investment with resolution of status before April 2014. So [at the risk of having egg-on-my-face; lets play figures. Baltic Top - I expect full year figures of £15m t/o - we dropped margins to gain market share in Kaliningrad - that pressure is easing and we should achieve a minimum profit of £0.6m. PBI - We doubled our capacity here in 2012 adding an additional 120000 cu.m. from end last year [Oct 2012]. It's slightly lower margin but predicable 'oil-major' bunkering - and we have a new lease in 2014 so we should see turnover increase to minimum £9m and conservative profit increase to £3.5m. Dan Balt - here's where the projections kick in. Last year, we inherited legacy storage contracts and pulled a small loss [-£100k on my reckoning on t/o £1m]. We have bespoke transhipments beginning Feb 2013 c/o Contago. We then had SOTA pumping equipment fitted on site and on budget by July 2013 plus harbour deepening completed Aug 2013 allowing acces to 80 dwt vessels [up from 40dwt i.e. doubled]. The full year figures will have the significant impact of the deal with Monjasa from Aug 1st so will be heavily 2nd half weighted. I would expect minimum t/0 £6.0m and full year profits of £2.6m. That gives a VERY conservative profit projection of £0.6+3.5+1.6 = £5.7m on t/o £30m If we can hit £1.9m profit at the interim stage I reckon we are on track [over £2m and we are buzzing] THIS IS EXCLUDING our INVESTMENT in Rosbunker - that is worth £22.5m if we sell or £2.5m pa if we take income. AND resolution is imminent. That means we either get a great big warchest [with possibility of returning a special dividend of part capital to shareholders] or a massive income stream that goes straight to the bottom line. There - i've hung my hat on the stand. Feel free to play with the projections but I have been very conservative with them if you DYOR and check. There is room for a lot of upside - especially in H2. THAT is where the real traction begins and the lucrative bunkering contracts start to kick in making projections difficult. Great time to become part of the Pan Euro team - we've been here waiting for this transformation to happen and now it is bearing fruit.

Follow the money - Nigel Wray is a canny investor. The fundamentals are sound for all the reasons I've highlighted below.

rising strongly! Still time to get on board as this rerates. Absolute steal IMHO at this price. Read my previous research posts and do spme yourself. Nigel Wray increased his holding.

This is good governance and an excellent sign of the progress we are making. No ramping here, just solid statistics and figures to highlight the huge discount to NAV. Simon Escott has achieved all targets on time and within budget. See my previous posts for a breakdown of assets and values. The interims due out anytime will show the increasing traction. Great to have a NED from Hepworth Tech on board at this time as we evolve.

MCap £21.8m NAV £47.6m = crazy. The NAV is given in the finals as £47.6m which actually seems slightly low. PBI is worth at least £12m as we paid £7m for it in 2010 and raised profit from £1.8 to £2.8m increasing. We also doubled capacity to 240000 cu m in Oct 2012 - so that was only in last years accounts for 2 months. Dan Balt cost us £7m (new build cost stated as £26m) and we've spent money on sota upgrades, finished all legacy contracts and signed up Contago ( and capacity let to Monjasa post 2012 y/e) - so even at less than 50% with all NEW transhipment/bunkering contracts now in place plus new harbour channel let's say £12m. Baltic Top turning over £12.68m but low margins rising 2013 valued at very conservative £5m Year end cash at £1m gives £31m minus the £8.5m loan note £22.5m Rosbunker is valued at £22.5. So my total NAV is £45m 2012 accounts give £47.6m but I'm being conservative - 2013 finals will verify that I'm sure. Whichever way you look at it we are massively undervalued at current price and £21m capitalisation. So that's £31m minus the