Member Info for Sisyphus

I suppose the same point would be argued here, but we can't be the only ones running the maths on Rosbunker with or without the flourishing PAN machine. It's not as if there's a lack of Russians or Russian institutions with more than enough vision and money to see the benefits here. Most of us PI's have been here long enough to see the tapestry of terminals that SE has woven - their stand-alone or group effect and strategically relevant distribution. That's why we bought in to it. If someone with £50m plus to spare sees an opportunity to acquire everything at just in excess of its NAV and can channel their own business through it then we would all consider a fair price for that transaction. You have to weigh up what you paid and the length of time you've held it [with no dividend] to work out a fair price for yourself - plus a risk-premium for investing. As long as the ball game starts at or around 50p then we can start talking. The pound party is still on the horizon - hence the 'start at 50p minimum' With more than one offering and therefore choice on the table, I'm glad Simon is taking time to consider all options and looking after our interests. After all - he does own almost 5 million shares =))

The effect on TMC shareprice was to double it overnight earlier in the year from 25 to 50p. Given that out NAV alone is virtually exactly 50p that's a good starting point in that event =))

WLH - talk about food for thought! Perhaps we have all been guilty of looking at Rosnbunker in isolation since we ringfenced it as an investment last year - effectively putting a sale sign on it. We have several offers on the table and we have a finite date of April 2014 for 'resolution' (sale or cas-flow). Like everyone here, I have tried to work out why so specific.......and...a Eureka moment at 6am. It runs like this: one of the tabled offers is dependent on one of our terminals. The offerer, possibly/probably Russian or with very strong connections there, wants Rosbunker. It also owns significant tank storage capacity in Rotterdam and wants to use the two as a 365 days-a-year ice-free route for export through Rosbunker from Russia. On April 2014, our 5 year lease at PBI expires and is currently being negotiated. What if we are being offered a deal which included equivalent 240000 m3 storage at a nominal lease rate as part of the deal??? You can run with this even further if you take WLH's opinion Pf an even bigger picture. Why anyone would want to sell shares at present is totally beyond me - we are worth far more than our MCap in assets and we have a lucrative and ice-free route for Russian export through Baltic to Rotterdam hub. Also, Dan Balt is equidistant between the two. Rosbunker can handle 40dwt vessels, Dan Balt has just been deepened to accept 80dwt. Transhipment of fuel from small to big vessels in transit is also a possible add-on. The possibilities are profound - no wonder our CEO does not want to be rushed and to ensure we get 'the best deal for our shareholders' Nice and tidy.

Certainly like the logic chain on that argument and it works. It really does benefit everyone having a forum like this as the quality and depth of discussion is brilliant. Great food for thought and thanks to all who make this such a 'must read' board.

Quote from ‘Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,’ ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda. On March 29th, 176,000 square kilometers of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice, a record for the time of year.” To blame is the long protracted winter with its unusually cold temperatures. The Local quotes a captain of an ice-breaker: I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season,” said Karl Herlin, captain of the icebreaker Atle. That is interesting and relevant to us because: Worth bearing in mind that all three terminals have some or all heated storage tanks. The winter of 2013 was very long and cold. The tanks need to be kept at 55 degrees F to maintain good rheological flow. Now we either have to heat the tanks and pass on the extra costs to clients or they pay for the product to be kept 'fluid' on site. Either way, it increased our overhead storage charge in 2013 and reduced the profit-margin. Since Rosbunker contributed £2.1m profits to interims 2012, it is fair to assume that, since all our operations are working at capacity - so is Rosbunker. Therefore its profits would have added at least £2.1m if it were treated as an associate rather than an asset/investment. If you take these two facts together then, despite Dan Balt having major upgrades and consequent disruption during H1, we did rather well. The additional money that's flowed into the coffers since July 1st plus the prolonged warm spell since the year end should allow upward revision of projections on last year, even without the recent significant contract wins.

Bet today's sells are Healey and Simpson - sour grapes!! Nice to see the price actually increase as spread tightened. There must be a raft of news on the way. It's interesting to look at the interims in depth and take out what we can. Cash balance was £1.4m at end June - it is £2.4m at end September. That's a million more in the bank in the last three months. Quote -The Company continues to pursue opportunities with regard to Rosbunker and will update shareholders WHEN a suitable transaction has been AGREED'. Strong trading over the summer months - which is expected to continue for the remainder of the year. These are all pertinent points even before the contract was announced today. With regard to the NAV at £49.4m - I ran my slide rule across how they arrived at it: PBI - bought for £7m in 2010 - capacity doubled and all working - profit increased from £1.8 to £2.8m pa so that has got to be worth £12m even at a miserley p/e. Dan Balt cost us £7m in 2011 and had a new-build cost of £26m. We've put in brand new fastflow pumping units to partner SOTA computerised negative pressure fluid transfer systems and the harbour now accepts 80dwt vessels [previously 40dwt]. Plus we have lucrative contracts now in place and at capacity. That's got to be worth a minimum £14m. Baltic Top - bought for £3m in 2006/7 has increased capacity with t/o around £12m pa but low margins. We're trying to leverage margins on the back of being a major supplier but it's creep and go hence reversion in Q3/Q4. Because of that I'll give it a derisory value of £5m although its worth a lot more. Cash is £2.4m. The loan notes are a minus of £8.5m. Rosbunker is valued at £22.4 but would have contributed at least £2.1m in H1 as an associate rather than an investment [see full year 2012 so hike that figure to £24m [discounted]. What does that gives as a very conservative value? 12+14+5+2.4-8.5+24 = £48.9m ------ and our MCap is------- £21.5m Crazeee.

Google major European energy suppliers. Very loted choice of those who fit the criteria. Use your grey cells to work out why this is a 'nice' contract. Certainly not a customer of limited means if my guess is correct. Perhaps the share price will renew it's upward trajectory as this kicks in.

New customer - major European energy producer. This is big news in a small wrapper. How many 'major Eurpean energy producers' would require heavy oil storage/transhipment at this location? Yep - it's a 'big' energy producer and our SOTA facilities won't disappoint.

The guys are ensuring that we are working 'at capacity' on a rolling basis. We only handle and mix product - we don't 'own' it - and 'Majors' always pay the bills. Nice move. Great that we are responding to requests for newsflow as it happens. That way we have immediate visibility of big events - spot on.

Brlliant start! First day after interims and another RNS - yesterday entered into a contract with a major European energy producer. As Pantastic notes - Major. This is significant because of accompanying anonymity. This is the traction that we were promised on Dan Balt so you can start upgrading H2 profits right away!!

Agree. It's also interesting that there are so few shares in public hands that day-traders can have little effect on PAN. The big spread at present is MMs trying to prize shares from ill-informed or disillusioned PI's cheaply, only to sell on the next (heralded) RNS. As you stated earlier, the effect on the buy price was minimal as bargain size available was minute - a clear indication of play.

I am more confident than ever that we will release details of the Momjasa effect well before the finals. Leander have started the PR machine to highlight our strengths. Today's RNS carried the 'notes to editors' paragraph as suggested by PI to highlight 'what we do'. The annual report was specific in saying that PAN would update the Market in due course ie trading statements. The stage is set for what could, if well managed, be an excellent stream of positive news items. Time will tell if we have learned by our frequently cited RNS famine.

Hence the totally out-of-the-blue resolution RNS. We all know it's worth 'a significant amount' and any deal beit sale, buyout, cash-flow will be transformational im both montary and operational terms.

Yep - transhipment and bunkering flexibility is indeed the key. Monjasa are huge, Denmark based and growing apace. The fact that they have contracted us is IMHO very significant. Read into it what you will, but we have 3 strategically placed terminals with a 365 day ice-free channel between Kaliningrad Baltic Top and Rotterdam PBI with Danish Dan Balt midway. New pumps, deepened harbour, £26m newbuild cost. Methinks we are being tested for lots more potentially lucrative work (or they are weighing up just what we have!)

Re-iterating the 27p target! One day they will actually get real and attribute some value to Rosbunker. Probably the day after the aforesaid RNS!!! Bit of a waste of money when they are supposed to display all the prospects in today's RNS. This board is a darned sight more informative- heyho

I can only assume that April 2014 is pivotal to one of the deals on the table. We do have multiple interest so I would assume it best practice to give the latest date as your 'horizon'. Several of the long-termers are of the opinion that an actual deal is a lot nearer. The only way we will know that is by a discreet little RNS one morning , an enormous cheer and a subsequent opening price 'well above the current level'!! Rosbunker is worth a lot of money, it is the only non-iced up port in the Baltic winter. It is strategic to Russian interest - why else would it be valuable enough to try to take by dishonest means?? We have our 50% secured in Russian law by the CEO personally. One day.........anyday........without warning.,.. That 7am 'SALE AGREED' RNS will hit the type. Do I want to be holding when it does?? Bet your life I do.

I can't add any more to your well written logic on that one. Totally agree. It is testament to the level of interest and research on this board. The contributors to the PAN discussion board are a credit to the LSE forum. So much creditable information and well-reasoned argument is a great platform for new investors to read. Respectful, whilst being humorous and refreshing risqué being interspersed with hard fact. It was interesting to see Pantastics request for the negative brigade go totally unanswered. That, combined with all the interim points, certainly gives very positive overtones going forward. Let's see the new invigorated pro-active team supporting SE - then let's see some nice deals crossing the table.

News media released today ad well http://www.peterminals.com/~/media/Files/B/Baltic-Petroleum/documents/Dan-Balt-high.pdf On the website re Desmi pumps

I was that comfortable with CEO's confident trading statement and revamping of BoD that I attended to other priorities today after adding my observations this morning. This is certainly not the end of regular newsflow on so many fronts. I expect a good flow of quality news as Simon Escott is now running with a proactive team andrew distractions. Strong summer trading is the key - we expected a little disruption at Dan Balt and the start of the key Monjasa contract may have involved some bespoke system applications. All in all the figures were exactly in line. H2 trading should be kicking in nicely, new deals in the pipeline and the culmination of the 'Rosbunker' saga. Very happy to hold as our MCap is way under NAV - it will rebalance. Cash generative - money in bank - all terminals at capacity - Rosbunker imminent

Looks very encouraging indeed. Just be aware that under AIM guidelines NEDs are not encouraged to buy shares as they areeamt to be independent. It is good to have proactive guys supporting Simon. We are on course and the interims were bang on my revised figures. Full year projections look good as well given the strong summer trading. Transformation is essentially complete now. For the life of me I cannot understand people selling their shares at this time. They are selling for 20p when Rosbunker alone is worth currently 22 to 24p - crazy.