RE: M&A activity31 May 2023 19:14
The absurdity of the current price is totally at odds with the facts. One approach could be to consider the fund manager's AuM as a significant value driver. Assuming a base case industry average valuation multiple of around 1% of AuM, the £11 billion AuM would equate to £110 million in value. Adding the cash holdings of £31 million, we have a total estimated value of £141 million (£110 million + £31 million). However, it's important to note that this is a base case estimate and doesn't account for other financial and qualitative factors like the prudence, providence and quality of PMI. When you factor in those parameters even a moderate fund manager with PMI record would be worth 2% AuM giving £220m plus £31m cash. That equates to £251m MCap - that's roughly twice its current level and not fully reflecting the underlying quality.
This is my rationale and why i see the company as a very palatable target for a bigger player. Take the package, add in the economies of scale and cut out duplication and anything around £1.50 a share is a steal. Mega vulnerable at this time but equally able to thrive given change in investor confidence as market moves forward. Personally I see PMI losing its independence in the very near future as the target of a £1.30 rising to £1.60?? unsolicited bid from Phoenix Aviva L&G etc.