Member Info for Simms45

Record results from B2Gold announced with $422m of revenue in a single quarter! almost all from Fekola mine. Calibre now looks very much a fly in the ointment and with a 34% stake they must be keen to see Calibre improve somehow and have leverage. Clive is drowning in cash and Calibre now look more like a nuissance to B2Gold with results that would look better without Calibre or a improved Calibre. Fekola are printing nuggets at an unprecedented rate. Condor would really be a help with that idle mill and lower AISC and just make B2gold results look better.

“Consolidated gold production of 239,574 ounces from the Company's three operating mines, above budget by 3% (7,327 ounces) and a significant increase of 15% (30,684 ounces) over the second quarter of 2019 (excluding discontinued operations of El Limon and La Libertad)
Total gold production of 241,593 ounces (including 2,019 ounces of attributable production from Calibre Mining Corp. ("Calibre"))”

If we have 2m ounces at $1.2k per ounze after we remove $800 AISC even i can work out cashflow of $2.4bn over life of mine, not to mention the likelihood of a 5m ounze district. Condor worth today £60m. we are getting close and once market confirms the mine selection decision, toll deal, land sales, finance, engineer we start to close the gap. All of the former is largely process and negotiation so its just a waiting game. Given the rising gold price most decisions become easier. It would be nice if before Zak Mir interview some extra news comes out to bring a sense of momentum as we have had no updates since May and all of the former ideally needs concluding by October to get site cleared in December and get things moving.

MMs are only there to facilitate a trade between buyers and sellers and individually hold minimal stock for obvious reasons as they make money on the spread. That is their job. Some UK holders have been able to trade from the first day and more have been able to do so since. it does not make sense to think MMs somehow manage the market and driven down on expectation of a mass Exodus from UK investors.I think the unprecedented volume on the first day to me pointed to Double River selling their holding but that is not confirmed but the volumes were so high that it seems there is no other explanation. The new investors might have sold but as we know the share price increased to around 12p initially before heavy selling. what the BOD need to do is put confidence into the market to attract new investors at these very low levels and provide confidence to recent IPO investors so they can buy more and average down. Hopefully the BOD will turn over a new leaf and engage wider share audience as that is the quickest way for them to build their market capitalisation.

If share price hits .75 by friday they can have their 98m warrants as that is £1m in the EQT kitty but i suspect we would only push back confidently to the high 50s on that news but always like to be wrong. However lapsing warrants are generally good news in this case as i think we have all had enough of the last placing where those who invested are still offloading for no profit. we need to lose that baggage before strongly moving forward.

It would certainly certainly make sense for BOD to release good trading update or something pre UK investors are able to sell, some of whom were able to on the first day but many still waiting. Most UK investors will only be able to sell unless they moved to a trading account that covers HK but management know they need to deliver to recent investors who since IPO are down 60% so there will be a lot of angry HK investors who have no information from CNE for the disastrous start. The silence is sadly exactly what they were like on AIM and they need to now change their ways and embrace investors and grow the company. They have £15m cash today with raise so that is a lot of money that they need to start actively using.

The share price dropped from 8p to 3p 12 months ago very quickly so we can hope the jump back up will achieved soon. Dr Jo has taken up the slack in the share and 5p now looks very likely. I would still target 10p around results but market could easily get ahead of itself and go to 15p with encouraging news.

Casper are certainly one possible future suitor. Casper exited UK market as it is burning through cash and UK was already competitive. It was best news for Eve as they competed head g to head on Hybrid and now Eve has a better run. Casper is a $400m revenue business and does have $110m of cash but losing massive amounts of money, last time $36m or so, therefore you might expect they need to sort their own backyard before looking elsewhere. If Eve can get to consistent profitability then its widely attractive to broad audience and i personally i think others not in the industry will pay a premium for their online capability and mattress in a box premium position. good times ahead if we continue on current trajectory and they might surprise to the upside in next financials.

This report is definitely the gold standard on research. Once you read and add in the recent £10m cash raise you can see just how compelling Eqtec is. The proposition to clients is so strong Eqtec are no longer needing to sell. They are literally sorting the best opportunities to go after and now can help clients get the finance closure over the line. The energy conversion is off the scale compared to comparables so unless another major competitor comes out you can quite honestly see Eqtec growing to An enormous company. This explains why we have sales popping up all over the world as if their was competition in each territory this would not be the case. The need to replace incineration with gasification has never been stronger. I have a suspicion they will not be solo for too long and we just need to see if the next 6-12 months proves that they can deliver the forecast profits. I can personally see forward guidance increasing.

https://research.arden-partners.com//view_repos/_7b492cb8-2c31-4893-9545-55e215f40c12.pdf

Great day for Eve as we smashed 3p and broke 3.5p. What a difference a day makes, especially when we have an eminent Orthopedic doctor buying 4.4% of the company. Lets hope a few bigger fish come out of the woodwork as it will speed up the climb to 5-10p my next medium term target up to next results.

RSE is below its NAV and good cash, although less than its Market cap but clearly overall undervalued. Management are dong a share buy back so looks gooden. However the oil and gas is on the wrong side of history and some of those investments might not work out so always a risk. Eve personally will considerably out perform £ for £ over next 6 months and less risk as any one of those oil and gas investments could go awry and might well do given the depressed oil and gas prices. If they focused on cleantech or gold then it might have legs but there will be discounts to oil and gas going forward as renewables are now a force to be reckoned with and major funds will quietly start to exit these investments from strategic decisions. Therefore i would never going forward invest in fossil fuel exploration or extraction as it just seems they have a lot of renewables coming in the opposite direction. How many cars will be petrol driven in 20-30 years time? What will be the massive taxes on oil and gas and what will be the subsidies for clean tech? I was once in REITs after the 2011 property crash and there was plenty of funds at 40% of NAV and because the underlying real estate would come good in time you know what you are dealing with. The upcoming results in August will give it a boost but i suspect nothing more than 15% maximum. With Eve you might add a lot more. just today on little news up 20% and no reason to not see similar days ahead leading up to the next trading update. We should be 5-10p depending on the wind and with Covid 2 looking restless it will support Eve for rest of the year and make traditional mattress competitors envious for similar action. I do not disagree with wyndrum that we could be 17-25p in several years from now as that is quite fair if we can reach £4-6m profit on a PE of 10 we get that sort of number. That is very doable.

I like the way DP is really approaching this like he is building property and understands that the maximum easy value creation is actually in the planning. Its a bit like having an carpark, buying 10% for £100k and then after planning they get permission to build a £10m tower block. The equity of 10% is now worth £1m. A 10x return for the company and the cash will not sit in the project but will be sold onto a infrastructure fund who will buy the project and operate. I think it is incredibly compelling as financial close is always the killer for development but they bring not only the technology and expertise but now can help the client get it over the line with an injection of cash for a equity stake at the pre planning position. Its a very very nice business model. The only caveat is getting some of that cash back out so there is not lots of placings but if they can prove a good return then realistically they should be able to raise money on the debt market as opposed to placings. I think a lot is going on and RNS due within 2 weeks that should take us back to the 50s and beyond.

Not sure you can compare a RI with Woodford dump. A RI is raising cash to put into the business. Therefore my £1 goes directly into the companies bank account and assuming i think the business has a great use for that cash and can deliver high ROI the share price can rise on the back of it as essentially the extra shares are all represented by new cash in the company. that can be a 0 sum game as market value after a rights issue is often exactly the same. However while we can be thankful spendthrift Woodford did dollop cash in our direction when he took a 31% dump there was no one to take up the slack. Hence we shot to 0 on supply and demand.
The woodford share dump is everything about the current price of the company today as not many companies trading profitably with more money in the bank than the market value are around. if you know of any please let me know as i went through every Woodford stock and this was best option for a negative valuation and profit going forward. Biotechs are not my thing but i know a few of those have done well recently.

I went through the RNS recently on how those shares emptied.

basically July 2019 Woodford fund wound up and share price was 8p and that price was based after a massive loss of £8m or something and turmoil at the top. Link was given the "firesell" orders and you can see below they dumped merrily to anyone would have them almost at any price given Eve nearly hit 0.

The best news today is we know 4% is off the market long-term and out of lighter fingers. This is the sort of leveling up i like to hear as the less shares in the open market the quicker we move.

this is in reverse order showing on 14th April Link sold the last of the Woodford shares but you can see the speed they tried to drop these shares into a market that was not exactly loving Eve at that time with massive losses and nobody driving the ship.

14/4 Link (Woodford) 0%
7/4 Link (Woodford) down 12.82 > 11.63%
3/4 Link (Woodford)sold 13.795 > 12.82%
30/3 Jupiter below 5%
18/3 Jupiter 10.98% > 5.12%
26/2 Link (Woodford) 14.53% > 13.79%
12/2 Link (Woodford) 15.52% > 14.53%
10/2 Jupiter 11.97% > 10.98%
11/2 Link (Woodford) 16.73% > 15.52%
11/2 Jupiter 12.99% > 11.97%
3/2 Link (Woodford) 17.68% > 16.73%
31/1 Jupiter 13.14% > 12.99%
29/1 Link (Woodford) 18.83% > 17.68%
30/1 Jupiter 14.97% > 13.14%
2/1 Link (Woodford) 19.85% > 18.83%
22/1 Jupiter 15.62% > 14.97% sold 3m
3/1 Standard Life 11.18% > 7.38%
30/12 Standard Life 0 > 11.18%
31/12 Woodford Direct 11.31% > 0
15/10 Link (Woodford 0 > 19.85%)
15/10 Woodford Direct 31.16% > 11.31%

It is simply supply and demand but just as oil prices went negative recently, where oil producers paid people to take away the oil when Woodford dumped 31% of company with not enough buyers it could have gone to 0. Fundamentally the company did not change at 10p just excess supply. Market is still recovery. Simple argument is that if Woodford did not dump his 31% where would share price be today? I would suggest at least 10p.

I wish there were more. Took me a long to find Eve. However my other holdings are all strong multibag territory but never know which one will release key RNS or pop on stake building like today in Eve. All you know is 12 months from now you wish you bought at 3.5p and only in retrospect see what good value Eve offered, still effectively 0 market value once cash removed, profitable and its high margin hybrid mattress is selling well with limited discounting. Exciting times.

EQT, PHE and SAE cleantech infrastructure companies are in the perfect storm in that a tidal wave of government funding is entering the system with top of the list of investments around reducing CO2 and pollution. When councils look around as well as large companies where to invest and make an impact and look at the likes of EQT where they could actually turn a liability of rubbish into an asset that generates an income the order books will continue to swell alongside the profits. EQT have been a little distracted on all fronts last few weeks with placing, patent fightback and Billingdon, not to mention keeping all projects moving at full throttle. Hopefully with the Covid restrictions on holidays they will push through August and there must be some half written RNSs waiting in the wings for the ink to be dried on deals. The penny flippers of the placing will depart and then we can get back on towards the 1p share price where we should be.

BOD have got to step up and stop blaming their tools. They blamed AIM but it was all down to management lack of presenting the benefits of the business, forward guidance on profits, updates on new project wins and key milesstones. this is all basic stuff but they chose not to do any of that. Keeping investors in the dark is a disaster as what CNE needs is new investors to drive this share back to the IPO price. The job is simple as they just published a 300 page prospectus and there are nuggets all over the place. They just need to break it up into bitesize chunks, do a write up on everything and publish on their website. No more than a few weeks work. They also need to engage with providing updates consistently. In many ways its a good wakeup for the BOD that it is all down to how they present the company results as people are busy and have not got time so they read news and hear on the grapevine and invest. While not big on social media it does not take much for CNE to make announcements. For a company potentially about to be on a PE of about 3 they can spend a few quid on a decent team to re-imagine their website, manage some social media and some decent newsflow. They only need to look at clean tech companies riding the wave today and they can see that tiny investment in newsflow can have massive outsize benefits on the share price.

2nd wave sadly is great for Eve. Best sales ever were May/June at height of wave 1. Eve is a strong defensive especially as you are selling at a negative valuation once cash is removed so giving money away.

3.5 now looking close. The next landing point. MMs drastically depleting at 3.4

3.35 20,000 JBER 09:24
3.4 25,000 WINS 09:23
3.45 20,000 SING 09:23
3.5 20,000 PEEL 09:23
3.5 25,000 SCAP 09:23
4 20,000 FCAP 07:50

And then there was 2. Buying picking up nicely so not long and we see 3.3

3.2 20,000 JBER 08:55
3.2 25,000 SCAP 09:01
3.3 20,000 SING 07:52
3.3 25,000 WINS 09:03
3.4 20,000 PEEL 09:03
4 20,000 FCAP 07:50