Member Info for Simms45

Anyone investing in a gold explorer is knowingly taking a MASSIVE risk, its almost casino proportions and if you look at any gold explorer share price over a 5 year period (if they last that long) will show massive swings. If anyone does not understand that and not be able to take a 100% hit to their investment really they should not invest in gold exploration. Kefi has over 10 years of painful baggage from Civil unrest in Ethiopia 5 years ago, gold bear market, liquidity crisis and any number of the usual pitfalls most gold explorers in frontier territories have over a 10 year period. i can hardly think of a gold explorer that does not face massive external factors at some point that cause the share to tank to silly lows. That is simply par for the course. Investors in Kefi who have stomached the distance have been sadly diluted to kingdom come any many will have lost large sums. Harry btw has also been diluted and looks to own only 2% of the company he founded and i am sure he did not go into Kefi thinking that is where he would end up. Most investors here i suspect are looking for 5-10X returns and be willing to loss a good chunk for that chance. I am here because as time goes on the chances of Kefi closing the finance on TK becomes more likely. I believe the government shareholding and all the other macro fundamentals means that if there is ever a time this would come through it is now. If that happens we will probably see a 2x overnight and then 5x-10x return in less than 2 years up to the first pour and that will still be below the NPV on all assets. However every investor must know that if TK financing collapsed through any number of reasons there will be some pain. Next week is the start of September and i think there is something very positive brewing as we have seen the steadily increasing share price that must factor in those with more knowledge than ourselves.

CNE have time to redeem themselves. While expensive at £1m to move they cant hide now behind blaming their tools any longer. Increasing investor demand in their shares is well within their grasp. They are 90% building ethanol plants for clean energy and that space is set to further explode. E10 is going to be a global standard and CNE should be shouting from their rooftops their green credentials and joining the likes of Velocys, Eqtec, Simec and others all riding the wave of post covid invesr in green tech but bo one would think CNE is anything to do with supporting that green revolution. The main difference actually is CNE is 3 years ahead on revenue, profits and market leading position on these others but trails their market cap. The only reason CNE is at this position is not growing demand in its shares and the only way to do that is get their head out of the sand and tell everyone what they are doing. Normally companies are only too happy to blow their own trumpet but CNE are the absolute opposite, invisible to the world.

I certainly do not think there is anything nefarious but the BOD have been heads down for 10 years doing some great things but quite oblivious to shareholder and wider industry need to be kept in the loop. CNE in their £1m IPO in HK cited the low share price was due to a lack of interest from AIM investors who did not get it but they have been totally proved wrong and the share price in HK is now way less than it was in the UK. Honestly i can say if CNE invested a few hours every time they got a contract over £1m to just toast the success of a new contract and to share with all shareholders to enjoy then shareholders would invest more and tell others. More importantly companies looking for Ethanol services will hear about CNE, especially outside of China, and they will get new sales calls. CNE are literally invisible, their website says nothing of their successes and if you visited from a sales perspective you would move on quickly. i would urge all investors to send emails to the board and make the case. i am sure just within this board there is a certain % of shareholders that can cause problems for the BOD. shareholders can table amendments and so forth at certain levels and become activist. In reality someone just needs to explain the benefits of sharing information to the wider audience professionally. Certainly EQT are the go to comparison of how to create a business that although today are not dissimilar to CNE in size in 5 years time EQT will be 10 times the size of CNE simply because they know how to build a community of investors and use this to drive sales. with almost no marketing budget EQT are building sales enquiries from all corners of the globe and most of that is down to good communication and presenting themselves on the global stage professionally. Certainly EQYT do not have a 8 page website that looks like it was put together in an afternoon with all its news pages showing nothing? Rant over but if the BOD care for their company and want to win business the easy way they need to spend some time and money on communication and even though arguably it is too late to unpack the 21 signed contracts hidden in the latest update over the last 6 months lets unpack the next 10 and see how it goes? There is almost no effort required and you can almost guarantee a doubling of the share price if they did that. Even a RNS to share they have a RMB530m £56m pipeline of deals should overtime with other news bring CNE to a £100m business. From this they should be looking to grow to £500m and make sure they become the world leader and the acquirer. As it stands CNE is so low valued that even companies who would normally be interested will not look at such a small deal to buy CNE. £25m market cap for CNE is an embarrassment to the BOD for what they have built and if they have any care for their status they need to embrace sharing the success with their shareholders. GLA and hope the board take action.

By way of example please look at eqtec #eqt today. They are similar market valuation and today released a contract of £2m in Greece. Today the share price will move a lot higher. This is one relatively small contract but CNE signed 21 of these but nobody knows about them. CNE needs to get their finger out and do what normal companies do and provide clear communication for all contracts signed. CNE is not BP and should announce all news with the same gusto as Eqtec. I will tell you something that Eqtec will be billion dollar company while CNE languishes because the BOD have no idea how to communicate and its a crying shame as CNE actually would be worth 3x today if they just wetted the imagination of investors. Personally i have never come across a more promising business but with the worst communication. It is simply staggering and sharing news would a actually massively raise their standing and secure more order enquiries outside of China as well as in. CNE has a lot to learn from a company like EQT.

We are long overdue some news and i took chance last friday to throw the kitchen sink at Eqtec at 51p as it just is such a compelling business model. If they can deliver and efficiently execute Eqtec is going to be a massive business in 5-10 years and will grow at a vertiginous trajectory. just need to now see the execution and expansion of the business. it will be back in 80s very soon imho

L2 is showing a lack of sellers and next jump to 2.3 and then 2.35 so could start to move quickly. As i said yesterday everyone is quietly jostling into position before a nice RNS drop and price is still incredibly under valued.

2.25 125,000 12:02
2.3 300,000 PEEL 16:11
2.35 300,000 SCAP 12:02
2.35 300,000 WINS 16:08
2.4 200,000 STFL 12:02
2.4 26,000 15:25
2.55 200,000 CFEP 15:26
2.57 200,000 SING 15:25
2.65 75,000 12:0

No dividend but that was almost expected but can see it more likely at the next set of results. pretty solid and hopefully HK market see it favourably. odd how there is no Chairmans covering letter or anything else as the text is pretty basic. They really need to get a grip on comminication as surely some of the 21 contracts signed had merit to report to the market and give a bit more background on. Backlog of orders is very impressive.

Why are they not releasing this sort of news to the market? Backlog of RMB 528m ?

During the reporting period, 21 new contracts were signed, with the contract amount (excluding VAT) of RMB115.0 million. As of 30 June 2020, we had a backlog of 49 contracts with an amount (excluding VAT) of RMB528.1 million.

Results out
http://iis.aastocks.com/20200825/9411814-0.PDF

Ticking up but when will results be released as i thought it was today? Maybe out of hours release but omens look good.

This is all great work and i suspect if you track this back it correlates with revenue. I also like to monitor "hybrid mattress" as this is the key profit driver for Eve as it has been mentioned to be doing well and it is double the price of basic mattress so more premium and while it is competitive with Simba and Emma a rising tide raises all boats and the loss of several competitors this year means a smaller comparable market. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=GB&q=hybrid%20mattress#RELATED_QUERIES

With a bit more buying activity today we could see 2.15 ASK as stock at 2.12 and 2.13 is looking a little light and two MMs at 2.15. Spreadex are probably holding the current price as they are one of those platforms that do not identify themselves on Level 2 while other MMs state who they are.

2.12 200,000 14:50
2.12 180,000 14:56
2.13 300,000 14:35
2.15 1,000 12:02
2.15 200,000 CFEP 12:02
2.15 300,000 PEEL 12:02
2.15 500,000 12:33
2.15 40,000 13:19
2.18 100,000 14:00
2.2 42,753 12:02
2.22 200,000 SING 12:02

There has been a good steady increase in decent buys today with some £40k and £20k pops so more serious investors piling in on future potential news or small leaks at the fringes? So far today, albeit not an exact science, we are looking at £377k buys and £147k sold so far. Bodes well for a good week. Kefi has consistently for 12 months said October mine construction start date so news of TK realistically could be anytime between now and mid September and even if most recent interview a few days ago nothing has changed :)

May have to hang my head in shame at my rounding up to $13m/£10m cash as i can see Jim Mellon and some extra warrants after 30th June did not amount to more than £200k and possibly a little over enthusiastic :) As to local i was partly referring to book5 who mentioned the location of the supposed mine infrastructure sometime ago but i think the point is i would expect buying a second hand kit will be quicker to bring into La India with less complications than buying one from China that would need to be built to spec and shipped with all the possible delays, customs issues and possible other trade complications, not to mention the chunk of change needed to acquire the more expensive option. I might be wrong and the China option could be onsite just as quick but i am not sure whether that is the case or not. I still think the toll milling is the best strategy today and that RNS could drop at anytime. MC always talks about derisk well there is no better derisk than cashflow and toll milling could be operational before the end of the year if BODs get their finger out. Its not as if we are short of a few ounces given the district play of probably well north of 5m+. money today is worth a lot lot more than tomorrow as Condor will be drowning in cash in 3/4 years but really if we can bring some of that cash forward to this year that is worth a hell of a lot to minimise dilution to pis and makes any debt discussion a lot quicker when you can refer to a toll milling agreement. I do wonder if the delay is partly other discussions as clearly there is a bigger picture that is also playing out as Rio Rinto did not come to Nicaragua for nothing.

Selling off non core operations for a decent amount of cash and freeing up management time to focus on the bigger opportunity is music to my ears. Eqtec will have its time in the sun very shortly if we can close some deals and update the level of order enquiries and partnerships as i suspect Eqtec are now in a position of having a substantial backlog.

Feels like everyone is jostling for position quietly before the starting gun :)

I think the key strategy is to increase the share price as much as possible before they need to push the button on any possible additional financing. to really get the share price heading to £1 that toll agreement and 100% ownership of land is key. With toll agreement Condor can borrow on the revenue stream and there is probably no need for a further raise for the $50m/£40m mine build. We have no debt as a company, we have $13m in the bank, we have have sizeable assets with all land ownership as security. There is no doubt is my mind that with a toll in place and 100% land ownership and currently no debt we csn borrow $40m quite easily. All of toll agreement could then be used to pay down the debt in a few years. Therefore even if we paid 10% interest on the borrowing that will only be needed for a short period of time. Onviously raising £10m at £1 a share is a tiny raise and minimal dilution and if thats the case then thats fine. We just need to do the simple steps now to get land ownership and get than toll deal signed. Both could and should be done in September so October gives Condor the options to press the button on mine build direction, that looks all likely to be the local second hand mine that would be far easier logistically to get up and running. Risk of china is multiple in my view.

Must be due a few decent RNSs anytime soon really so i suspect the market is jostling for position ahead of that. My only concern is we actually have so many potential projects bubbling up that i hope the BOD can keep all the plates spinning and focus on closing all the projects as that order book was starting to look very very impressive and can only imagine it getting a lot lot bigger. The patent discussion with Aries could have also sucked up some management time but i have a feeling that will actually become a big positive. It seems pretty clear that Eqtec will eventually get the green light and Aries will then look like a bunch of opportunist thugs and their brand will be tarnished and should garner a lot of positive publicity for Eqtec. That will happen in time. We have been rumbling along between 45-50 for sometime and been as high as 80 so given we have £10m in the bank and a paltry £38m market cap we are effectively a £28m business with net profits forecast over £5m next year. Personally i think the trajectory of the order book will be a lot bigger at the end of the year and suspect Eqtec are running to keep up with the demand.

Just a small update but my shares on Interactive Brokers are now tradeable again so things are happening. Hopefully the half year results and maybe a dividend will help the cause as we are heavily undervalued by a long shot. Lets hope the BOD are listening to shareholders and going to play things differently in HK and get involved in releasing a steady stream of news for all MOUs and other contract details as communication is KEY. Still unbelievably maddening that their so called new website zkty.com.cn has no news at all. it is about 8 pages in total and something you could put up in day and not the sort of website that is befitting CNE who wants to position itself as a world leader in Ethanol production infrastructure. The UK website is even worse and still refers to the LSE. The BOD need a proper kicking to sort out something so basic. If they are generating millions in profits they can pay someone a few quid to sort their news flow and website out. It beggars belief that the BOD would actively shoot itself in the foot over something so basic that it does make you wonder how the rest of the business is operated. Come on BOD pull your finger out and get things sorted.

some fair points and was a fag packet calculation but Kefi are operating a hub and spoke operation and the 8 year mine life is just a base case like most mines but there is huge potential for the district and there will be new drilling started once we are pouring the gold stuff. I also have expectation that other miners in the 300km radius will use the TK mill for toll mining so undoubtedly we are looking at a much longer mine life but like most mines you just need enough resource drilled to prove the economics and then stop spending money on drilling. I meant to say PFS and not PEA for NPV but we can expect that this will be nicely positive overall.
Certainly 10x from todays price in 3 years after first years results i think stands fairly reasonable with new ounzes found and other PFSs in the mix. Certainly as we edge closer things might start to hot up and leaky news might trigger unexpected rises. If we get TK over the line then actually Hawiah and Jibal Q has more value as the cash being thrown off TK will finance the whole shebang with no dilution, although expecting a little back end of 2020 to tide everything over also worth bearing in mind that subject to finance and depending on the exact lay of the land Kefi might be expected to get some fee income into Kefi.