Member Info for Simms45

Altair have been a forced seller for whatever reason for sometime artificially crashing the share price. It is probably not unreasonable that DP knows they have finished selling and bought in. I hope that is the end of the selling as we are due a re-rate subject to expected news. This will rally specacularly when the momentum changess but pity the 39m sell today who recouped almost nothing. That is a lot of medicine to swallow but if Altair have parked their holding at 12% we should be on firmer ground. The issue i have is DP knows exactly what Altair are up to so must have some insider knowledge.

Yesterday over 130m shares changed hands and whether it was overhang or simply traders piling in and then unwinding when the trade went against them we can all guess but key is volume to break the impasse as ultimately they will fall in long term holders who are looking for the big gains overtime. The details matter so we can expect credit signoff now this month and maybe within weeks. Obviously for the market cap to rise investors need to see value creation and closing the finance largely triggers a $90m windfall to Kefi investors, more than enough to credibly push us to 2.4p and trigger warrant cash for fast track into Saudi projects.

A not unrealistic market cap post banking agreement is around £100m-£150m in my view once you add in the $95m to the asset column so today market cap of £37m is still very good value. This obviously excludes any upside to Ethiopia let alone Saudi. Next 3-4 weeks will be a very exciting time for Kefi holders. HODL as this has been 15 years in the making so there is a lot of catching up to do.

He said it at the last webinar at Denver. If you imagine we spent about $5m on buying literally 100s of small parcels of land from locals and then getting them all the sign etc. That is years of work and you would not hold up a sales process because of a few locals who cant get down to the local office to sign paperwork. However it is all done so that is a key bit of news that i think most have ignored but i think it is important for sales process to finalise. It has been very very quiet from MC so that might bode well if something is about to be released.

1p will come and go, possibly even today. Reason why is that credit approval is rubber stamping exercise as it was already agreed in principle and we know who who runs the bank really. While the share price will rise once that is confirmed most investors will know this and get in before. Definitive agreements will then be the next biggie but there is a queue of companies wanting to wash their money through Kefi and out of the other end in the Cayman Islands as they have had cash tied up in Ethiopia for decades. Ethiopia will be new eldorado as this offshore banking agreement is going to totally transform Ethiopian mining.

You probably have followed this company longer than anyone and while i agree the ANS money will never come in you might see that there is now plenty more meat on the bones with real Ethiopian government officials talking positively about Kefi and it looks that Kefi can get things done in the Ethiopian government very quickly. That should be the greatest hint that the EG need this as much as Harry and they have put their head above the parapet. it will now be a calamitous outcome for the EG if things came off the rails but since the EG have a major stake in the bank who are lending the cash do you think that is likely? While you might have lost money in the past, i am underwater too, but i simply cannot imagine that once credit has approved the loan we are still going to be worth £36m market cap, and that is after the very small rise today. You can appreciate that all of the sweat equity of nearly $95m including every pina colada that Harry drank on the the shores of Cyprus will be now converted into our 75-80% equity stake in the $390m project. Theoretically you can just add $95m to our assets post finance and just on asset value alone you are over triggering warrants and then once it is over 2.5p i am sure investors will support Harry to do a placing, most likely at or above the market price as bigger investors simply cannot buy enough in the open market so they will be keen to get involved at the key moment. The upside is going to be huge in Saudi and that will create another jump in the share price as Saudi is much bigger than Ethiopia. we would be out of the woods of raising to pay off debt and raising to inject into high growth opportunities. there is a big difference. Harry still has plenty to answer for the last 3 years of bluster and rose tinted optics of the grandest scale but Kefi are a nobody trying to pull off one of the greatest deals i have ever come across in mining finance. Find me another miner who just might pull off a $390m funding package with almost no money down (except painful 12 years of investor cash and trust tied up in sweat equity). this could be all a diferent story later this month as i am sure the EG will push t convene a credit meeting very soon so they keep on track to the schedule.

Another day of buys double that of sells, from what i can see, but we fall a penny. I dont think Jim is waiting this out at all. We are waiting for legals go complete to announce sale and i would hope its possible for MC to keep us updated on what he can. He slipped in our land coonfirmation and i wonder if he can divulge anything else that is holding up proceedings. we will wait and hopefully see a positive update shortly.

It was basically a signal to investors and nothing more as it was a very small amount. If he bought £70k and 1% of company and shares 10x over next 3 months fingers would be pointing. Personally i do not think directors should buy at these levels as you can equally argue they created this debacle and they should not now enrich themselves. hence i think £6k was about right so as not to be seen to be taking advantage of the mess they partly created.

What we have here is 5 bidders so you would definitely put a deadline so you can whittle this down to 1 so the deal can be concluded. My assumption is that Condor has already got to this stage with the preferred buyer and we are now in the legal and due diligence stage. When i have been in this stage then it can take a long time or short-time depending on the urgency of the buyer who is largely driving the process and the hurdles needed to satisfy the lawyers and any banks. Remember plenty of companies have been acquired over a weekend where their is real need to do the deal but in this case less so and more a case of the acquirer making double sure of a lot of things. This all make sense as MC updated the market with his "in the bag" imminent type updates before summer that implied the stage of legals. The most recent update was that the land was now legally in Condor name so this ticks off the list. We do not know what else might be outstanding to conclude the deal but it could be anytime now really and i would sense even a buyer would be itchy now to get on and close deal before christmas so they can crack on. if the asset sale is concluded then the only excitement can come from one of the other 4 bidders tabling a takeover. i hope we can see this deal this month.

I think Eqtec are exactly the type of strategic investment those higher up the food chain will be looking at. Eqtec have proved massive demand for its technology but lacks finances to close and crack on. Strategic investors are probably closer than we think as Italy is operating but needs optimisation but once we get that RNS we secured refinance we prove our platform. If you considee incineration is over and no one is able to get planning then you can see 1000s of European projects popping up. Eqtec are right in the middle. At a valuation of £6m, just out stake in Northfork once live is worth more. Once investors understand we have runway to Q2 2024 and take calculated risk that some of the £15m+ of expected deals expected in Q4 and Q1 will come in sometime in Q1 and Q2 of 2024 the penny will drop and the market cap of £20-£50m is more likely. We need to make sure the management are on the same page as pis as they could try and MBO but given PIs own a large part of the company they have little value. This is key that pis hold a big hand in Eqtec and at these values at £60k stake could almost buy you 1% of the company. While Altair are dumping stock to settle loans and artificially destroying Eqtec shareprice those with a higher risk profile are swooping in. My average is now smashed to the floor so painful as it has been on the way down my average is now a lot less and not so expensive to achieve. I am pretty comfortable Q4 2023 and into Q1 2024 will offer some good news to fill the coffers.

Ultimately deadlines help both the buyer and seller as it focuses minds. If you tell me i can take as long as i like to do something i might well do that. I understand Hannan logic to not create a cliff edge as a buyer needs to tie up legals and so forth but i think October needs to settle the deal. It sounds its been in the oven for 3 months and board are pretty relaxed but they need to close the deal and move on. Jim will be able to trigger his warrants as part of exit i hope so he is also motivated to conclude the deal. We have 5 non binders, we must have at least 1 at the right level to trigger MC bullish “in the bag” comments but if we want to see a real exit by Christmas October really needs to be the deadline. obviously if valuation keeps rising and we have multiple bidders then obviously keep it going but MC should be able to give a little more flavour about where we are. I thought his last comment about ownership all now in name of Condor was important and still do maybe this will unblock the finale to the deal. maybe next few weeks all will change.

Topmoney did move to a facebook group sometime ago so i am sure you could find it. i do sometimes have a look but it is really a waiting game and hope the next results give us an indication we have turned the corner. We have to get the Ethanol firing again as that is the backbone of the company but they have so much R&D and a pilot project in Hydrogen so we are in the right places but just need to steady the ship and stem the losses. At some point China and the rest of the world will all move to E10 as standard but China seemed to roll that back during covid. Share is very steady for now so i am confident we will push on if CNEL announce any big deal in Ethanol and return to profit. i hope they do and do not wait until next interims as the 6 month gap is painful without any updates except garbled news on the website.

Eqtec without any new revenue coming in has available cash to see us through to the second half of 2024 as per the Interim RNS. The question is really will any of the revenue pushed from Q4 2023 come in Q1 or Q2 of 2024? If it does we will have revenue to see us further into the year and the share price will dramatically rise in accordance with that. We have many possible revenue streams that could come in. Personally i think a lot of the talk in this BB is not based on the RNS and while i have lost a lot of money like many others i dont see that we will not get some positive news between now and March 2024 to fill the coffers, not least the refinance of Italy and the many projects that have been delayed as surely some of these will trickle in.

The management team has prepared financial forecasts to estimate the likely cash requirements of the Company over the next twelve months from the date of announcing these unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements. These forecasts show that the Company will require additional external debt or equity funding going into the second half of 2024 to be able to continue as a going concern.

Honest interims and finally Babar has been shown the door. Eqtec and making all the right decisions and lets hope they continue to so

“The Company and CFO Nauman Babar have come to mutual agreement for his transition out of the business before the end of 2023. Mr Babar is departing in light of family considerations that require him to relocate outside the UK. The Board has commenced a search for Mr Babar's replacement, and he has committed to support the Company with orderly handover of his responsibilities. Mr. Babar's replacement will be announced in due course.“

Share price has been flat for 7 months now since the jump in February from .12 to .18 so i suspect a lot of people have been trickle selling into that moderate rise. While i dont expect any news for another 5 months if a deal with Sunbird can happen or something else it could really help change momentum but we seem to be deep in the doldrums and just so little volume. The company are hibernating and does not appear capable of providing any meaningful update to shareholders. i will give it 12 months to see if anything can happen as without news we have no volume and we simply the trade sideways around .16.

Shanta was not looking for a buyer but had responsibilities to shareholders to tell potentially acquirers to put up or shut up and like most gold miners they are all massively undervalued so used the press good effect but kicked the offers away as soon as it it could. It is different with Condor as they have said they are for sale so buyers have a destination that is simply based on price. we must have non binding offers at the price required and recent tidying up ownership of land is all part of the due diligence. I am hopeful that when MC mentioned this that it was a way to tell investors a reason for the hold up and now that is out of the way perhaps the binding offer can commence very shortly. anything under $200m is a bargain for the acquirer and i suspect they will be tabling around $150m. we will see but that leaves a huge gap up for the acquirer to make serious money within 18 months and if they use a lot of debt it will be all paid back within 18 months.

I think we need to be reminded that if the recent RNS update led to financial problems then the company would have said so and been legally obliged to do so. The fact they did not speaks volumes. We have the contracts signed and payments not being paid in Q4 have slipped into Q1, certainly in the case of IDEX. Therefore Eqtec not only have perhaps £5m left of their loan they can drawdown they can also access finance based on their contracts. For a lot of companies cashflow set backs like these are too uncommon. Certainly not ideal but Eqtec will update tomorrow or when the interims are due and i suspect we will see a re-rate.

Lets look at the interims and the update from the board but a 3 month push back on some contracts is not great but its also not a terribly big deal when we have contracts in place and banks are there to precisely fill any gaps, if there are any, as we have not drawn down the loan we have in place and we are waiting on refinance of Italy, Northfork launch and grant from France. We have close to £30m pencilled in for 2024 although even 50% of that will be a great place to be. Only people we need to hear from are the board and that could be tomorrow. There is a reason they offloaded all this news last week and it could be so that positive news can be properly understood and not mixed with delays. Hopefully tomorrow we find out. given we are £8m market cap there is plenty of upside if they put aside concerns.

Quite a lot of doom and gloom, which is understandable as Eqtec from looking at the shareprice seem to be building a cash to waste gasification. However i never thought i would say we are a £9m market cap with almost 4 projects operating generating cash and probably £30m of sales in 2024 with 2023 Q4 revenue slipping. Even 50% of that is a huge number so potential huge upside in the medium term. In the short-term the company needs to confirm they have control of the cashflow and can access finance should they need it. The interims i think will set the scene but there is plenty of positive things happening, just deals have been nudged into 2024. We have the refinance cash for Italy ready to drawdown up "optimisation" and NorthFork is about to rudely change the tone with hopefully a RNS of further projects. you could buy 1% of the company for £90k which could be the deal of the decade in 5 years if Eqtec deliver on their sales in 2024 onwards.

Well certainly a mess but i have invested more this morning as an opportunity to massively average down cheaply. Reality is we have contracted payments but now not due in Q4 but in Q1. This is where finance comes in as you can borrow against that and pay off once cash arrives. I think a lot of this is a storm in a teacup albeit the board have got to take off their rose tinted glasses and learn to wait to bank money before they spend. I absolutely expect the board to take a paycut or pay share this pain fairly as their salaries are excessive for a £9m market cap company.