Member Info for Simms45

Price of gold now close to $2050 so that can only provide some wind to solidifying a binding deal. Those profits are starting to look very significant at these levels. With all the twitter announcements the deal was "in the bag" in the summer leading to a spike to 34p we are now over 12 months into the processs. I hope that this "in the bag" deal happens prior to Christmas.

I understood the conversion of these debts when the company has limited market cap would have led to a higher shareholding for Altair and Pitcole. if the whole pot is 22%, while it is painful, it is not as bad as it could be. I was thinking it was getting close to 40-50% dilution. However i still cannot comprehend why we are letting Pitcole swap a 10% stake in the MDC for a decent stake in Eqtec when there does not appear to be any reason to do so and at a 125% premium in shares. This dilution should have been avoided.

This is link if anyone else has any clues

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1126/2023112600015.pdf

I am still baffled why, when cash is precious, we somehow find £5m to buy a non controlling 40% stake in another supplier that did not make a profit last year. I am sure it will turnaround and there is some logic but at the same time my spider senses are thinking whether Green is not another mate of the board of CNE and hope someone is checking there are no backhanders going on here. Surely CNE has far better ways to invest £5m in its own company or tide it over for the next few years while it develops the pipeline. The company has not even whispered this news to anyone and from what it looks like were actually forced by the HKex to make the announcement as it does not look they followed protocols. Will CNE never learn but it has certainly shaken my approach to trusting what companies do and say as CNE are next level in deceit. my only hope is to recover my investment as while i can see so much potential the company seems at every opportunity to destroy that. where is all the PR Ivy said they were going to do and where is all the updates about news as this should surely be a major news item given we have just spent the same as our current market cap on another loss making company without even a whisper. i hope someone is watching the money flow.

TKGM will be independently managed and operated and Kefi will become a supplier. If TKGM went out of business Kefi is protected as it is a separate entity. The stake of 80% will be valued on the TKGM asset. How accounts will incorporate TKGM is a future matter but we will shortly have similar vehicles setup for JQ and Hawiah. Key is Kefi will have almost no debt and should have significant stakes in entities that can be used for borrowing purposes as we potentially move away from placings where it is better to do so. At the end of the day we are worth a pitiful £30m so something has got to give once this all ramps up as target dividends i seem to remember could be equal to almost the share price today just from TK, let alone Saudi. If you need a £20k pension its a chance to make that investment today and in 5-10 years not only have a £200k investment but a tidy £20k dividend for the forseeable future. This is how i am looking at this investment once TK is concluded.

Condor Kefi has minimal debts apart from its short term financing. The debt will be held in TKGM so Kefi will just be a 80% shareholder in that vehicle. What this means is after this deal Kefi will still be debt free but have 80% stake in a $390m project. Big difference as Kefi will be able to borrow against this asset. The good news is once TK is secured we have considerable assets and no debts so we will be in a great place. Today we have almost no assets except around $110m sweat equity ($95m accounted for) and a small debt so not great. However once we get otl Kefi is in a different league. Also to answer my own question i wonder if Kefi is able to call in the $15m of sweat equity for 2022/2023 that is not in the financing. Maybe this is where we also extract a sizeable amount of money or does it stay as a loan repayable from TKGM to Kefi. Anyway that cash will be very useful eitherway.

Wait is over and basically CNE through our 100% owned subsidiary Zhongke Tianyuan has bought a 40.77% stake in a company called Zhongke Green for HK$57,898,000. That is £5m in sterling so quite a lot of change stating it will boost long term profits as presumably they were a supplier. Amazed we have so much money sloshing around as CNE is valued at about £5m so you would expect this deal to double our valuation but has barely flinched. How does company find that sort of money and not think it is better to buy back CNE shares? At least we know CNE is in great shape to pull this off but its all very odd if you ask me. Hopefully the start of being taken seriously by the HKex stock market as being an acquirer is generally positively received. The fact shares did not flinch continues to tell me the company is not making any effort to announce a major investment. No news on website but £5m invested for a large stake. Overall happy but underwhelmed by the share price that is 90% down on its HK IPO.

Does anyone know who Pitcole are? If Altair and Pitcole and Palumbo have all agreed something then this does look more like an MBO as DP has strong relationship with Altair and Pitcole i have never heard of but will become the 2nd largest shareholder from converting their tiny stake in a tiny plant into a massive stake into a potentially massive company. I still believe Eqtec will easily become a billion dollar company in time but i am now interested to know who will own it as this deal really is a bad one for pis. I know bod will say we had no choice but its a inconsequential amount of money in thr grand scheme of things and surely they can arrange a loan with potential to convert in the future? Does DP want all pis out of the business as it looks a lot like he is engineering this that way. I still do not understand as Altair will be over 30% with this debt for equity so they either need to sell a boatload of shares before or they will triggee to make an offer for the company? We are valued at £4m so its less than a semi detached house in East London. Pis need to be vigilante as something is amiss here.

So close to breaking .7 ask and when we do we will pop higher. At stake is a $390m project that we have already injected our equity into the project for our 70-80% stake so once we get credit signoff this will build substantially. I cant quite remember the source but was told that as part of the project finance Kefi will receive a sizeable cash injection for services but would love to understand if that is the case as on top of the $95m windfall we would also factor in any of the $390m that will reach our shores. We should be at least 1-1.5p today but markets are markets so its rude not to take advantage at these prices. Everything is lining up perfectly and Kefi could join the big league. If they can bring out the Hawiah DFS in early 2024 and confirm a better timeline for launching on Saudi exchange things will get really interesting.

Can someone explain to me why we are buying out Putcole of their 10.9% stake in Italian MDC that we are only refinancing for 2.9m euros and instead giving them up go 16% stake in thr Eqtec holding company based on current market cap and the 125% bonus to repay €750k euros in stock. It simply does not make sense. I can only imagine some small print in Pitcole deal but it looks on the face of it a unbelievable dilution. Altair is DPs side company so i get the cronyism for Altair who largelly steared the Eqtec share price to this place but the recent dilution plans are very poor. Surely the pitiful amount we owe to Pitcole and Altair could be paid from the YA £10m loan?? We only need a 6 month bridge because cashflow is known go be coming in from Gardanne and Italy refinance and some deal with Logic. Surely any sane board would be looking to push back agreement on these loans and pushing harder on getting cash in the door. To trigger this debt to equity when eqtec is worth £4m will mean Altair and Pitcole will earn in excess of 50% of Eqtec? Only a share price increasing 100-200% over next month might resolve that. Also Altair will be over 30% so will that not mean they need to make a takeover offer or need to sell hard their existing shareholding? Obviously the more Altair sell now the lower the share price and Altair debt to equity might own a substantial holding. Maybe i miss something but this lookd to be a masterstroak by Altar and Pitcole and an own goal by our BOD? this should have been extended and agreed in New Year when a lot could change for the positive. Why is the board doing this at thid precise point if not to dilute all pis out of the company?

I think after the weekend conference and President Abiy photo call with Harry and his conference speech you would expect attendees and a wider audience of investors will start buying in. Even a few local pis on LSE might jump on but its the wider investor audience that will be watching closely. Last few weeks before we move into gear to become a mid tier miner and 5 in 5 years maybe a copper and gold behemoth as being first major player in Ethiopia and to some extent Saudi we should get richly rewarded with future mining licenses and credibility. The height Kefi might fly is hard to know as majors could well also swoop in next year once Hawiah DFS is released. Majors will want to get a foothold into these markets and Kefi will be way ahead of the game so should carry one day a hefty premium. Gla

Frankly i would be surprised if we dont see a penny in the coming week. This deal is on and we are about to secure $95m from converting sweat to equity and i am sure plenty of billing from Kefi to TK once finance is in place. That cash could go a long way to sorting out our Hawiah stake proper and propel our listing plans on Saudi. I think next week the gloves come off as we are not just adding $95m but the entire value of Hawiah and JQ as well as they have been valued at 0 while Harry became toxic and unbelievable. Very smart move by Kefi to swap him out for someone new. If we get the slew of news over next 3 weeks it could be a big christmas as even a nominal value of £100-£150m must be on the cards as absolute bottom end of market cap. Hawiah should really have a £50m valuation alone at this stage given the quality of Artan partner. It reminds me of Greatland as Kefi is just going to sit in the coattails of Artan as money is simply not even an issue in Saudi as well as knowing we can borrow 75% at peanuts interest rate once we are ready to pull trigger in early to mid 2024.

This could all change overnight if Condor and team get a bidder to binding. Just one binding bid could kickstart the real bidding process and for me that was key. now the house has been on the market for 12 months buyers are obviously wary why. They lost the urgency and momentum but it can all change in a heartbeat and we could be pushing 40p + in no time. In some ways having JM who can continue to input £2m every year is great as a backstop but it has removed the urgency to conclude a deal or look at other options and really this lack of urgency is not working to shareholders advantage. Its time board got a binding offer and leave door open to further binding offers or crack on with one of the bidders in a JV that is almost certainly going to be the way forward. Its incredible to me anyone would go down a sale route if they did not already have bidders close to the take out price that needed firming. Time to seal a deal before christmas or seal a JV as it feels like the board are dithering and 12 months is more than enough time to make a decision. Painfully if we had cracked on 12 months ago we would be closing in on the start of production and looking forward to a completely different story. Even 50% dilution back then would still have meant by now we would be a long way further from todays share price and the feeling of action. Inaction over such a long period can have big damage to momentum and relationships built up over decades. Fingers crossed something is going to be announced soon!

.7 is a key resistance as it was placing price but looks to be on the ropes at .698 ask and once breached we should bounce merrily towards a penny. News expected imminently and we should really be 1.5p minimum by now, assuming credit signoff, happens in the next 3 weeks. Looking very promising but a long long way to go.

Cnel have announced a trading halt for “inside information” announcement. Generally this os good news and could be s major deal announcement that will move share price significantly. If it was bad news they have tended to always release asap and rather enjoyed seeing the share price slump. We wil see but company recently hired new person to head up a hydrogen unit and there have been several R and D pilot projects. I think liquidity wise all is good so my assumption really is that it is more likely positive news than negative but cnel are past masters at self destruction so i also have my doubts. Could this be a cheap offer to take private just before Cnel makes a major break through? Would that explain boards refusal to share any meaningful updates and the years of dubious behaviour. We will see but i hope cnel make a positive announcement.

You also need to look from. Other perspective as a buyer. If you have £130m that is sitting doing very little you need to deploy. You buy Condor for £100m, you borrow £75m and top-up with £30m as equity and build mine in 12-18 months. You get back £100m in year 1 of production and theoretically pay off debt. You have a company worth £200m. the gold miner has invested £130m but within 3 years has a mix of cash and capital of £300m. Obviously life of mine is 10+ years so the cash machine will keep on churning out £100m of cash flow for foreseeable future. Its also a great buy. At some point a buyer will need to deploy cash and Condor is probably as good a proposition to recoup money quickly. We even have the mine equipment ready to go. I hope Condor JV and ensure all pis are rewarded and keep 50%. Its a no brainer for everyone to do this to maximise value. Outright sale should have happened 6 months ago so they need to review approach and should have always looked at JV unless they already had offers of £100m before Hannan were appointed. It would baffle me if Condor did not have offers at a level worthy of appointing Hannan. We have 5 bids, and a serious Saudi interest so now the board needs to deliver a sale or JV asap as 12 months is a fair amount of time to deliver in arguably one of the most buoyant gold prices.

While the buck stops with the board we are valued today at £4m for the entire company. The board cannot point the finger apart from themselves sadly as they over extended and when the tide went out were caught in the buff. However now DP has given his mates at Altair a big slice of the company for next to nothing by converting a loan we do at least remove this cliff edge. Its unpalatable given collusion between Altair and DP due to his “arms length” involvement in Altair. DP now needs to switch on North Fork, extract some upfront cash from Logic, refinance Italy and get the Gardanne revenues in. Im confident, while incredibly painful, that assuming DP is not planning some skullduggery with Altair and that they remember pis rely on the integrity of the board to be in tact to deliver. Even a logic upfront payment of £2m would now transformational to the share price. Italy refinance is due and that will also have a big impact. My personal hope is they get enough cash from Logic or refinance to pay off the scalpers Altair and not dilute. Its possible if money comes in soon and if if does i wonder if DP would review this debt conversion as i feel shareholders overall would benefit. We will see.

The slack has gone out of Kefi and while you could almost buy unlimited stock last 12 months whoever was the background seller has gone and buys are now moving the share price. We should have been 1.5p sometime ago so we are just catching up so we should have steady rise. As long as things progress with credit sign off Kefi will be strongly moving forwards as there is a huge value gap to fill and then hope value and NPv might get s review as Hawiah and possible Saudi listing changes everything.

If you have got any cash down back of the sofa now is the probably a good time to go and have a rummage. It is high stakes as this has been off and on for more years than i can remember but if it comes together the trajectory is set and as we know TK closure is really all about Hawiah as that is BIG but totally overshadowed by the drawn out TK financing. It does feel that everything might well happen this time, as early as first week of November. gla

I have no idea about the shareprice as AIM is all over the place these days. Even hotel chocolat got bought for 160% increase on share price. There is value everywhere. Key is we create a value creating event for all shareholders and in time the share price will catch up with basic metrics like NAV and one day NPV. If Harry triggers a slew of news after credit approval and we secure new interest from deep pocketed investors we will motor upwards. However got to get that credit approval to know we are all systems go. Last time we even got close to thinking it might happen we rose to 2.4p but reality is today shareholders are bruised and battered and we need to see interest rates to fall before stock market is risk on and big banks and investors flood the stock market with cash. Certainly all things are starting to line up for a global upsurge in investor appetites. Gold mining in current global climate should be in a good place but i think we will not see the massive returns until Harry organises a listing in Saudi as London has lost its shine.