Member Info for Silversprings

A few things that don’t add up to add to everything else we can’t get our heads around. Why would Anavio want another board appointment of one of their own if the intention here is for administration, winding down etc.?

If Anavio are making a play to possess COPL’s assets on the cheap, how have they allowed a situation where the senior lender is now instructing a chief restructuring officer to sell at least some of these assets?

Without clarification from the company none of this makes sense

Sounds like the SL has had enough and wants to see these assets sold.

No one actually knows why it’s been suspended do they? I know those with negative views are having a field day but there’s multiple reasons for a trading suspension.

I think most would take that at this point.

What’s more disappointing is why the company haven’t released any information yet on production guidance, new CEO, or financing.

Begs the question, if this is all a highly orchestrated con, why bother getting rid of Cowan if all he’s done is carry out given instructions?

Potential possibilities as I see it (only my opinion not intended as a ramp or deramp, just pure theoretical speculation)

Most likely in my view is that there’s a power play between the SL and Anavio and Cowan is the collateral damage of this. One party will take control through the financing arrangements and the identity of a new CEO.

Possible alternative scenario is that the strategy for COPLs Wyoming assets will have changed due to the JV termination. Cowan may have been a stop gap CEO to see the JV through whilst Art was positioned as president of COPL America. If the strategy for the assets is now different then Cowan is more than likely not the right CEO for the route forward required.

Third possible scenario of course is that everything is on fire and Cowan just can’t handle the heat anymore and has fallen on his sword due to the mess he’s made.

Until we hear from the company who knows but this does not feel like a long term orchestrated con to me.

Tiburn - another consideration is what could have possibly changed from the RNS when Cowan said the JV negotiations were concluding final matters?

JV sentiment - why? They’ve been working on this for a year and are about to get a foothold into a fantastic power river basin asset and eventual total control down the line

GGS Production - if it’s negative why does the JV care, Barton flats shannon wasn’t even in the JV scope anyway.

If it’s positive - potential scenario I laid out below could occur

Other potential reason the JV folds is there’s another party bidding and it becomes in COPL’s interest to break exclusivity

Finally of course there’s the reason that everything is a con, the rug has been pulled and Cowan has disappeared.

We don’t know but something changed from the date of that financing RNA to now and the one that makes the most sense to me are the production figure from the GGS being much better than anticipated - again though only my opinion, anything could happen negative or positive

Tiburn - exactly, there’s something else I can’t get my head around either

The JV termination - let’s look at the possibilities of how that might have come around - if it was instigated by the JV party then why? One potential scenario is they couldn’t work with COPL management but hardly a dealbreaker for a major who would be buying the asset down the line anyway. The worst case scenario pedalled on here is that the JV partner ‘discovered’ that they couldn’t extract the oil. An oil major wouldn’t need a year to come to this conclusion if true.

So then you think about COPL and why they would terminate? If they were distressed and the GGS not working then any offer from the major to pay off the SL would have been accepted, the JV continue, COPl survives, and the asset is sold in its entirety to the major after delineation for a higher value, far preferable for all stakeholders than administration.

One potential scenario of course is this: COPL and the JV realise that Cole Creek is a bigger asset than first realised ‘a game changer for the company’ as Art put it due to oil in place but also carbon capture, the JV partner offer doesn’t match COPL’s new value. The GGS works better than anticipated and suddenly COPL could be in a position to go it alone with a single tap fund investor and RBL (always Arts preferred model as per his references to Occidental). COPL terminate the JV but the SL sees their pay back timeframe extending from before the year end in one lump sum to potentially a lot longer and the RNS is dropped.

None of us ultimately have any ideas but seeing as people are throwing out administration, delisting, and enterprise scale cons as fact then it’s only reasonable to put forward an alternative take on events.

Tiburn - the interesting thing for me is that none of these things will have been a surprise to those in the know. They must have known the JVP was not going to conclude successfully a while ago (or at least planned for that outcome) and they would also have been aware of their forecast cash position against the covenants of the senior lender .

Yet in the JV termination RNS the company is still committing to production guidance and strategy for their Wyoming assets by the end of 2023, why bother doing this if the company is switching the lights off etc.?

Are all of the investment in the field improvements, GGS, well recompletions, dewaxing, flaring etc. really now all going to be cast aside for the administrators because COPL can’t maintain more than 1.5 mill in their bank account and have no funding options available to them to bridge them to the point where revenue from increased production can fund? Forecasted to be only a few months off. I just don’t see how this is probable.

Now either absolutely everything was a complete and utter con (unlikely) or there’s something else happening here.

Key question remains whether the GGS is working as anticipated. If it is and production forecast is as hoped then there’s no reason COPL cant go back to the original strategy pre-JV of RBL then a slower field delineation. If it’s not then potentially therein could lie a huge issue but until we hear from the company there’s just no way of knowing.

Appreciate the reply Edgein , here’s hoping there’s a resolution for long term holders that’s better than the worst case scenario

Edgein - how do you see this one playing out?

Reading back through the RNAs I don’t understand the logic of why the SL would have agreed on the debt restructuring to allow the company to be funded into Q124 if their intention was to gain the asset on the cheap from a distressed COPL. This was aligned to anavio sinking more money in to get the GGS up and running which (as far as we know) was delivered. If their intention was to gain the asset on the cheap then they could have pulled the rug on COPL at multiple previous points JV or no JV.

Art also bought a lot of shares in the company at much higher price. He and the bond holders Anavio lose everything if COPL goes bust.

Additionally the proposed guidance on production by end of 2023 was reaffirmed upon the breakdown of the JV discussions. Why recommit to this if you are of the opinion the whole lot is imminently going down the drain.

In addition to this we have emergency flaring ceased, two confidential wells with unknown status, and a production base at 1100 bopd expected to feel the effects of multiple catalysts from gas injection, well recompletions, dewaxing etc.

Just seems a very odd situation for the whole thing to go bust just at the point when every party is likely to benefit.

The only fly in the ointment could well be if the production out of the Barron flats just hasn’t increased at all despite the gas injections but given previous behaviour of the field it must be unlikely.

Has been a long time since any sort of communication from the BoD, we must be due one soon with an explanation of what has been occurring post the tie up with Bitso.

City, Roley - any reason you can speculate for the lack of comms from the board at this point?

Nice uptick. Patience will pay.

The very definition of value investing is that the market misprices shares. If every stock was correctly priced adjusted for future growth and income then there’d be no point investing in anything.

So yes the market is wrong at certain points, but most investors know that value always comes through in the end. If you’re too impatient, sell up, if you don’t think it will, sell up.

There’s no way for you to know that anything you’ve written in your post is true JP. You’ve got no idea how the strategy is progressing, you’ve got no idea what the cash position is or what bills MOS have, you’ve no idea what revenue is being generated from the drops, you’ve no idea what the status of the IGS contract is.

You have no clue, just as you were incorrect that a placing would occur this week.

So please stop wrapping up your baseless negative speculation as fact.

The last formal communication from the company was to announce a partnership with a multibillion pound company. Apologies if I put more stock in Bitso’s due diligence than your wild uninformed dartboard guessing.

Complete clown show all week on here, the usual shorting merchants whipping themselves up into a frenzy about how they knew a placing was coming this week, they were even naming the price it would be at.

The truth is JP you’ve got absolutely no clue, spouting your opinion and speculation as absolute fact.

‘The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient’ All we have here is a board full of impatient immature ‘investors’ who haven’t even given the company a year to prove their change in strategic direction is working.

Where’s the placing JP? You said it was this week.

RNS out. Bet JP was excited for a second then. Unlucky.

JP you told everyone there’d be a placing this week. Where is it?

The drops keep coming Roley, that’s a lot of concurrent live drops now available at different price ranges.

Guzzler - you’re not a serious person. I enjoyed that period after the Bitso deal was announced when there wasn’t a peep from you. Probably panicking over your short. Keep going with your multiple accounts and odd personal agenda. I’m done with you, like most posters are now. You can scream your paranoia into the empty void in here you’ve created now.