Member Info for SickOfTheRatRace

In relation to 12 accounts with 85k, as with investing in AIM companies it is a question of understanding the risk. With UK banks it seems clear that the UK Government would not be prepared in future to let any bank fail. Either brokering a deal for takeover or indeed bailing them out however unpallatable that is to taxpayers. Having said that the UK Government turned a profit on their bailout of Lloyds, but clearly if they start selling now in RBS are going to lose out. RBS thanks to their previous share consolidation have, as Arnold Rimmer may have put it "not moved a smegging inch" with the government currently �26bn down on the deal. Personally I sleep easier having my brokering services part of a UK bank, that is not to say that should BMN go the way it is 99.999% looking like it is going there isn't going to be some genuine worry on my part about what to do. At some point the risk will be high holding such a large sum in BMN in isolation and I will have to look at realising some value and putting these into other investments outside of the stock market if my dream of a retirement on the back of BMN is going to be a reality (and it is increasingly looking odds on). Any sensible financial adviser would advise putting a percentage in x and a percentage in y etc, so some other investment vehicles will be needed rather than 12 brokers at 85k each. Even if I am to retain all BMN for the foreseeable future (I have said many times in the past this has �1 written all over it - however the sheer scale of what BMN is achieving so well documented by BBN today and Nickderbys regular upcoming lists means �1 now really does look on the low side!) then I have to give consideration to what fatbanker explained so succinctly in term of % risk. �100k in one broker therefore has a 15% capital risk factor, being 15k down should the broker go bust with the other 85k guaranteed. Then it becomes a question of the risk level you are prepared to accept, 170k with a 50% risk etc but although it looks like a 15%/50% risk the actual risk is many times lower. Yes if the broker goes bust and 85k is guaranteed you lose 15%/50%, but the broker may only have a 1% chance of becoming insolvent. It's that broker based risk that is the most important and of course in that respect not all brokers are created equally and it is a real question of DYOR.

*their annual charge Given the number of typos on this board I am starting to believe that LSE try and correct text after submission!

DarrylJ I tend to agree. Halifax may not have the cheapest dealing rate but there annual charge is fixed rather than % of portfolio and of course part of Lloyds overall which is a highly profitable FTSE 100 business. I would encourage anyone to look at their own broker following the situation with Beaufort and consider how diversified that broker is and their financial position. That is not to say that Halifax is totally without risk as the "credit crunch" showed, but it is a highly diversified business and of course doesn't just rely on brokering. Lloyds has major financial muscle and the chance of losing money with HSDL is minimal compared with other companies that may only offer brokering services.

Domain was registered in Nov 2013, so not a new development. Could however be from a previously registered bank of IP protecting names that they have selected from to use now.

Well if it is a genuine seller taking profit then they aren't being very clever about it. Instead of hammering the price by 0.5p - 1.5p every day they could more closely match sells with buy strength and still be getting 22p+ for their shares.

FastMoney I wouldn't worry at this stage. About 95% of the shares I have ever bought have been underwater for a time. Just about every LTH was underwater here for a long time. The information you need is posted regularly based on company released information. We are just converting the base production figures and sales numbers to a $ and then � rating. BMN will confirm this for sure in September by which time you will already be well ahead. Every million shares means a �10,000 loss at a 1p drop, so of course going from 25p to 18p is significant and I won't gloss over it at all. It's horrible. I can only point you at the fundamentals. It is due to those fundamentals that the price will recover and you will be in the black again.

There could be a large buy order already placed that an MM is trying to fill. If the buy was lodged at say 20p then they are more than happy to encourage as much selling as possible lower than this until filled and won't let the price rise above.

Alfa yes to a point but this would work better on jam tomorrow shares with questionable fundamentals built on hope. That isn't BMN - there are plenty of other pump and dump outfits on AIM. The problem with a sell then re-buy strategy in BMN is that it is impossible to consistently call the top and bottom and life changing news could drop at any time. If too many people enter the scenario then you also risk killing a momentum rise by over selling at the wrong time. You end up seeding doubt and manufacturing the fall that wouldn't have otherwise occurred until later, in which case you are only cheating yourself. Personally I prefer to just sit and hold. It's a lot less stressful!

nickderby: "The important H1 figures will be published by 30/9/18. These figures should be exceptional with FeV averaging over $60 per kg in Europe for the first 6 months of the year and even higher in the US." Nick you posted this yesterday. Depending whether you believe that coincidences are the universe trying to tell you something or not it this is a very interesting date. The least interesting part is that it won't be 30/09/18 as this is a Sunday. The most interesting part is that if it is the working day before that, which is the 28/09/18, I have this date in my diary as the anniversary of when we heard about the passing of Corbine. For those unfamiliar with Corbine, he is the reason that so many LTH's first became interested and invested in the company so long ago. Marking that anniversary with the first full black and white figures confirmation that BMN is a profitable producing company would be absolutely perfect.

In relation to news, it is an unusually quiet time from the board given the expected flow. Like jogj99 at 10:16 today I had expected a lot more news to be forthcoming following the II buy-in. However we should consider that the industry is currently in a period of negotiation relating to the new mining charter which is now expected to be completed in the next few weeks. Obviously I have no information that isn't available to all of you, but I do give some consideration to the respect shown to Fortune/BMN from various sectors. It would therefore not surprise me if the input from BMN is more substantial than others which may in turn explain why things have gone quiet right now.

Many thanks to the bank holiday for killing the momentum building at the end of last week.

Alfa - interesting you think it doesn't stack up so I went back and had a more detailed look. The primary reason being that my own post history on the BMN board at that time included arguing with suspected shorters that we should expect no more than 0.25p - 0.5p drop in terms of value moving the tin assets out of the company. Unfortunately the guidelines changed at the last minute and instead of the expected issue we received 11 times less allocation. If we take an expected 0.25p drop as was theorised at the time and multiply it by 11 we get 2.75p. The key dates were: 9/11/17 Admission to AIM of Afritin Mining 8/11/17 Demerger update (changing the terms from 1 share in Afritin to 0.0899) 23/10/17 Demerger update - confirmation of IPO 20/10/17 General meeting all resolutions passed Share price (via Google) 9/11/17 9.50 8/11/17 9.63 23/10/17 9.75 20/10/1 9.88 Clearly there was a small drift in that period however the closing price had been consistently between 9 and 10p since 31 July 2017. If we look at the week post demerger when we would expect some adjustment, we see the following: In the 2-3 weeks that followed we were marked down to 7.63p, a convenient drop of 2.25p since the merger announcement or 1.87p since demerger day. The point being made here that the valuation was already discussed on BMN as being roughly 0.25p - 0.5p and no more, but thanks to the change in allocation and subsequent listing price in ATM we were marked down significantly more by general market consensus that says if one part lists at x then the other part should have approaching x removed. Now of course some of this drop could have been people who had bought in to BMN in order to just receive an ATM allocation, then sold out which may indeed be the case, although there doesn't seem to be a corresponding rise before and the volume graph (via Yahoo Finance) is pretty flat for the whole period. Personally if that last minute 1:11 change hadn't been made I think BMN would have been more stable post merger. I hope that if Lemur gets spun out then the lessons of ATM will be built in to the proposal.

Clearly the deluge of emails shows two approaches are being taken. A majority of companies scared that unless you specifically re-opt in they are in breach and a minority that are using legitimate interest to just say hey, we have a new policy but you don't have to do anything but read it, and you can opt out at any time. Obviously if you have a bank account, bought something from an online store etc this is legitimate interest because you knowingly signed up and agreed to the terms and conditions at the time, although of course 99% of people don't read them. The companies who are more concerned are the ones that bought your details from a third party for marketing purposes. You haven't had any legitimate dealings with them, never opened an account etc. They are the ones that are hopefully disappearing from my inbox tomorrow, hopefully for good. Everyone I have spoke to, literally everyone, is doing the same thing. Ignoring all these requests except for maybe a select few they want to hear from.

Personally I haven't modelled it but would be interested to hear from anyone who has attempted to. As Alfa said this morning the main question is over tin/contained tin. I suspect the end result will be worse than I thought! If we say 5,000 tonnes of tin @ $20,924 (corporate presentation) that would be sales of $104.62m less production costs. Going by slide 18 of a recent presentation they are expecting 79% of that to be costs so profit of $21.97m. Assuming 1bn shares by then (probably more) that's 2.197p a share. PE of 15 = 32.95p a share. Dividend of 1p if we are lucky? This is just for Uis. Adjustment required when concentrate levels known.

Version 2! To anyone tempted to panic sell, remember why you bought in. You bought in to a company that is consistently delivering on its plan, doing some of the cleverest if not the cleverest deals ever known in mining. A company that is widely respected in the market, that makes agreements with international partners and governments, a company that is on a mission to change energy supply as we know it. Looking at Vametco based on Q1 disclosure we know that 690 tonnes were sold at an average price of $61800 that is $42.642m. Production was higher than this, but this is what we sold. Costs were $18,900 per tonne based on disclosed Rand exchange rates, which is 690 tonnes * $61800-18900 = $42900 per tonne or $29.601m, or �22,165,228.80 at todays google dollar to pound rate. BMN 59.1% is worth �13,099,650.22 EBITDA. A very simplistic multiplication of 4 for the 4 quarters in 2018 is �52,398,600.88. We know it will be more because production in increases are coming on stream as are increases in Vanadium demand, cost reductions and the potential to increase that ownership percentage to 74% this year. Still if we take that figure of �52,398,600.88 and apply it to the issued share capital we get EPS on 1,067.76m of 4.9p a share. At 19.10p (as I type this updated version) that's a PE of only 3.90. A recent examination of AIM mining stocks showed an average PE of 14. At a more realistic PE of 10 we should be 49p a share, at an average PE of 14 we should be 68.6p a share. This is all information based on the Q1 update for Vametco, calculations are my own. Different people on the board will calculate slightly differently, but the end result is the same. This is a chronically undervalued share and there is no fundamental reason for the recent drop in price. BMN is currently undervalued by a factor of 3 - 4, based on just one asset. Of course if people need to sell because they need the money, so be it. However if you are tempted to panic sell for no other reason than seeing a recent artificial drop, you are being mugged. You wouldn't sell a pound coin for 20p, but at the moment you can certainly buy one! You don't have to take my word for it, look at similar calculations by pdub and nickderby. You don't even have to take their word for it, DYOR, the information you need is all there.

Yes you are right, I will correct it!

To anyone tempted to panic sell, remember why you bought in. You bought in to a company that is consistently delivering on its plan, doing some of the cleverest if not the cleverest deals ever known in mining. A company that is widely respected in the market, that makes agreements with international partners and governments, a company that is on a mission to change energy supply as we know it. Looking at Vametco based on Q1 disclosure we know that 690 tonnes were sold at an average price of $61800 that is $42.642m. Production was higher than this, but this is what we sold. Costs were $18,900 per tonne based on disclosed Rand exchange rates, which is 690 tonnes * $61800-18900 = $42900 per tonne or $29.601m, or �22,165,228.80 at todays google dollar to pound rate. BMN 59.1% is worth �17,494,191 EBITDA. A very simplistic multiplication of 4 for the 4 quarters in 2018 is �69,976,764. We know it will be more because production in increases are coming on stream as are increases in Vanadium demand, cost reductions and the potential to increase that ownership percentage to 74% this year. Still if we take that figure of �69,976,764 and apply it to the issued share capital we get EPS of 1,067.76m or 6.5p a share. At 19.25p (as I type this) that's a PE of only 2.96. A recent examination of AIM mining stocks showed an average PE of 14. At a more realistic PE of 10 we should be 65p a share, at an average PE of 14 we should be 91p a share. This is all information based on the Q1 update for Vametco, calculations are my own. Different people on the board will calculate slightly differently, but the end result is the same. This is a chronically undervalued share and there is no fundamental reason for the recent drop in price. BMN is currently undervalued by a factor of 3 - 6, based on just one asset. Of course if people need to sell because they need the money, so be it. However if you are tempted to panic sell for no other reason than seeing a recent artificial drop, you are being mugged. You wouldn't sell a pound coin for 20p, but at the moment you can certainly buy one! You don't have to take my word for it, look at similar calculations by pdub and nickderby. You don't even have to take their word for it, DYOR, the information you need is all there.

I would be interested in hearing any theories particularly about what is behind this morning dip we are seeing every day. All I see is a massively undervalued company becoming even more undervalued. If they keep taking sells but not allowing any buys then they can mark it down as much as they want. Fortune can solve the problem with financial numbers.

The spin out of Afritin has been poor as far as BMN shareholders go. At the time of demerger BMN was 9.5p with shareholders expecting to receive 1 share per BMN share held. This was then reduced to 0.0899 of a share or to put it another way 11.12 shares now needed to match 1 BMN share. Listing at 3.95p or in other words 1 Afritin share was worth 0.35p if the original 1:1 had been maintained. The RNS information was that Bushveld Minerals and shareholders were to hold a combined 41.9% of the Afritin capital, and now a further 42.9% dilution of that figure. So with BMN holding 15%, BMN shareholders held only 26.9%. Today we are 2.85 as I type thanks to a MASSIVE 42.9% dilution that hasn't even occurred yet, or the BMN equivalent of 0.256p. Of course the markets didn't take any notice that BMN were only issuing 0.0899 Afritin worth 0.35p, so over the next few days marked BMN down by 2p. So the net result of this is that in 7 months BMN shareholders have been diluted down to 15%, and ATM is now raising working capital for a company that was supposed to be fully funded as part of the original dilution and institutional buy in. Maybe I am wrong on some figures above but it certainly doesn't look like a good deal to me.

Daisan, unfortunately it is clear in the RNS this morning at 07:01 that part of the proceeds are being used for working capital - " for general corporate and working capital costs" Use of Proceeds The net proceeds of the Fundraising will be used as follows: � to commence with an exploration drilling programme and geo-scientific work with the goal of declaring a JORC-compliant resource in due course. It is anticipated that the programme will confirm the historical mineral resources as published by SRK Consulting in 1987, although there can be no guarantee that this will occur. This programme will require the procurement of geological equipment, drilling into the V1/V2 pegmatite and other pegmatites (with a view to expand the resource base), sample analysis, geological modelling and reporting; � to initiate and progress with a bankable feasibility study (BFS) for the final mine configuration (Phase 2). Approximately 50 per cent. of this amount is planned for a geo-metallurgical characterization, metallurgical test work and process flow design, with the balance reserved for mine planning, infrastructure design and financial modelling; � to incorporate upgrades to the process design of the Phase 1 plant to improve the planned beneficiation performance. The intention is that these upgrades will involve the addition of a fourth crushing stage, a second stage in the dense medium separation circuit, as well as the dewatering equipment to improve the planned process water recovery; and � for general corporate and working capital costs.