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Just to add to this I have little time for market commentators that think just by looking at a 20 year graph they can predict that Vanadium prices will fall because there have been some historical spikes. If people are basing their Vanadium investment decisions purely on a historical graph or the "what goes up must come down" mantra then they are doing themselves a great disservice. You have to look at demands on the commodity now and in the future, not what happened 10 or 20 years ago.

The facts of Vanadium are that history only tells you what was happening with steel. That isolated view isn't relevant in 2018. A historical graph will not represent anything that either is now or is likely to happen with VRFB's or that there is a structural deficit that cannot be corrected in any quick order - or that there are ever more useful applications being found for Vanadium that create additional demands. During the last price spike did a structural deficit exist? Did any significant market for VRFB's exist outside of the military? With VRFB's the demands on Vanadium producers are high. Assuming Vanadium producers are actually able to respond in any volume to extra demands from VRFB requirements this is only going to prolong the structural deficit and prolong the period of high prices. Any new supply coming on stream over the next five years will be immediately swallowed by electrolyte needs.

IMHO the days of $20-30 a kg are already a distant memory and unlikely to be re-challenged for a long time if ever.

@mikeetg it is not just whether Vanadium is a rare element or not, it is how much it costs you to extract. Aluminium is the most abundant metal in the earths crust, but it is very costly to extract.

When looking at Vanadium, as with any other metal a period of high prices encourages previously uneconomic projects to move to production as they are now profitable. If high prices then drop, those projects quickly become uneconomic.

In a Vanadium market which is already in significant deficit consumers need more production to meet demand. To meet the additional production elevated prices are needed to fuel capital investment and present positive project economics to financiers.

The simple facts are that others cannot just dig up some random piece of ground with low grade Vanadium and enter the market as you say just because Vanadium is abundant. They need high prices to make a profit.

BMN is the lowest cost Vanadium producer. Therefore whatever happens to Vanadium prices we will remain profitable. With high prices more projects will move to production and additional Vanadium will be available to consumers. However the market cannot then afford that supply being taken out of it by lots of higher cost projects then going bust so there is certainly a Vanadium price floor significantly higher than our cost base.

faramog I believe it was originally owned by Stratcor which was later acquired by Evraz. Stratcor owned Vametco as a subsidiary Vametco Minerals Corporation. I didn't find information about the original patent application as usually you need the patent number to search the patent office for details.

In the BMN document "An Emerging Integrated Vanadium Platform" of 13th June 2016, a statement is made as follows:

"Utilises Salt Roast processing method to produce vanadium in the form of Nitrovan (exclusive trademark owned by Vametco Alloys) and V2O3"

The implication is that Vametco at least owned the trademark at that time following the path that has ultimately gone from Stratcor -> Evraz -> Bushveld Vametco Alloys.

Alfa is very knowledgable in this field so he may have access to patent information/applications/files that I do not.

cyberbub I do not see ATM as a share that is going to set the world on fire in terms of share price growth. I see a steady cash generator in the coming years and a potential small dividend payer yes, but if I was looking for a growth story I would be looking at BMN from which ATM was born.

Of course things could change significantly, ATM could swallow up some small operators and grow that way but tin price will always be a risk as with any pure play miner. Tin is already a grand down on a month ago but supply deficits can suddenly turn the price favourably to the upside at short notice.

@RazorShultz Of course being happy with your investment and analysing potential risks is important.

The question is how far you take it. Personally I would limit it to risks that there is some modicum of control over. So nuclear war and alien invasions are probably taking things too far as we would all have a lot more to worry about than our Bushveld shares.

Limiting analysis to Bushveld, I am not considering any risks that wouldn't have a material impact on the company right now. So for example if the Mokopane licence is never granted, then there is no impact to current operations and therefore our share price shouldn't be impacted. If VRFB's do not take off again there is little impact to the bottom line today as we aren't selling any or providing any electrolyte - the risk there would be to future growth only. The primary risks I see at the moment are mostly Vametco related and are:

1. Loss of key staff
2. Vametco shutdown in a labour dispute
3. Unforeseen shutdown of production due to plant issues
4. Sudden collapse of the Vanadium price
5. Government action

Taking these in turn:

1. Loss of key staff is a risk that every business faces. Staff die whilst in post, resign, retire etc. There is no more risk here than any other business. As they say no-one is irreplaceable. Probably the worst outcome would be to lose a key member of staff like Fortune or the head of Vametco operations. Even in these instances businesses have contingency plans and the business plan would continue.

2. If Vametco staff were to suddenly walk out en mass and the operation were to shutdown, there would be short term risk to income until the dispute is resolved. There are no rumblings of discontent at this time as far as I am aware.

3. If plant should fail it may need to be replaced, there could be a risk of extended shutdown if new parts have to be fabricated and delivered. The risk of this lowers as Vametco renews existing plant as part of expansion projects.

4. We are already the worlds lowest cost producer of Vanadium. If prices collapsed there would be a lot of companies out of business before us. The chance of this happening is incredibly low at this time. Even at historic lows, Vametco is profitable.

5. If the government were to suddenly turn hostile and put outrageous clauses in the mining charter etc. At present they seem open and appreciative that mining is very important to the economy. Low risk.

Hope this helps. I don't believe there is any more material risk than any other company in this sector.

Talking about the VRFB - "We've installed that at Eskom".

Past tense.

Excellent writeup Alfa, many thanks.

Just to add, should we increase our share to 74% by buying out Sojitz with the other 26% to BEEE, that 3.1p now becomes 3.9p.

Incredible returns for just one asset for both LTH's and new investors alike.

I am going to borrow from some things said by pdub, nickderby and BigBiteNow recently.

If we are to assume that BMN may start paying a dividend once the results for 2018 are known then currently the money is coming only from BVL as the Vametco mine is the only positive cash generator right now (which we know will change in future):

Production guidance for 2018: 3,680 mtV
Potential average sales price for 2018: $70,000 mtV
Vametco 2017 production cost: $16,600mtV

= profit per mtV of $53400 or £40584

£40584 x 3680 = £149,349,120 (note pounds, not dollars).

BMN share is 59% = £88,115,980.80

BigBiteNow theorised a potential capital return based on 80% for investment, 20% for shareholders.

20% = £17,623,196.16

Shares in issue: 1,079.35m

Not allowing for any distribution costs, that equates to £0.016 per share, or 1.6p.

Now let's assume that policy would continue into 2019.

Production guidance of 5,000 mtv. A (potentially conservative) average sales price for 2019 of $90,000mtv. Costs reduced to $15,000mtv through economies of scale.

20% of income as adividend now equals 3.1p.

That is ONLY for Vametco. Nothing for our share in Afritin (which will be producing soon) or BE, Lemur, Mokopane etc.

There is going to be a very good investment case for income driven investors once that dividend policy is confirmed in H2 2018. Of course we would expect the price to be somewhat north of here by 2019, but at todays levels that 1.6p is a yield of 6.7%, 3.1p a yield of 13.4%. Even at a share price of 50p a 1.6p dividend would be a yield of 3.2% which is a good return in the current low interest climate.

Confirmation of dividend intentions could be an excellent share price driver going forward.

kevkan not as mind blowing as seeing the price rise 1.4p in a day which for some investors represents a 100% rise on their original purchase price in just a few trading hours! (not me I should add)

It's going to be even more mental at 100p a share where a 6.35% rise would be 6.35p!

Thanks RichKen, appreciate your kind words.

RNS - annual report out.

As BMN hold 10% of Afritin you may be interested to know that they published the annual report today.

Which implies something is holding up the release.

The Lemur story doesn't get enough credit in my opinion as all the focus is on Vametco. For anyone who joined the BMN story more recently it is worth looking back at past announcements to see how it unfolded. Some say that the acquisition of Vametco for effectively the inventory price was "one of the cleverest, if not the cleverest" deals in mining history but the story was equally good for Lemur.

BMN obtained a majority holding in Lemur and then ultimately took it over at a time when its own share price was at the start of a downward journey that would ultimately end at 1.3p. The takeover yielded A$12m in cash (approx $8.4m USD at the time). They also gained the Zaaiplaats Tailings project which BMN had previously offered circ £800k USD for an 87% stake for and then withdrew but Lemur then offered $202k USD for 99.1%! Plus of course the Brits Vanadium Project which Lemur signed a binding term sheet with Sable Metals and Minerals which is now going to be used to reduce Vametco production costs - a project instrumental in getting us Vametco in the first place.

That's all on top of the Lemur project that people actually talk about, the Imalato coal mine and plant. A project now potentially going to be valued at many multiples of the takeover price paid, a project that was basically free.

History will look back on BMN as the smartest junior ever.

If Simon Thompson had tipped BMN at 8.24p on 1st Jan this year... well the price today speaks for itself.

Well done for finding BMN early. It wouldn't surprise me if the tipsters start covering BMN once those first figures are out. The question is whether the price will still be at these levels, indications are they will be significantly higher particularly as we approach the expected results.

As the best researched board on LSE coupled with the Bushveld Perspective shows the potential here is still huge with a price in the pounds, not pence.

Of course DYOR but you have already found one of the hidden gems on AIM. Some would say (and have said) a gem as rare as ASOS.

RazorShultz you are of course correct to ensure you are happy with the investment you are making. All I can do as a fellow BMN investor is advise you to dig a little into company RNS history and appreciate the masterclass in business building that is going on before our eyes.

As the story is still unfolding, some of the traditional yardsticks in terms of income and growth don't yet apply as we won't have confirmation of income until September. We also don't yet know what the dividend policy will be, but that information is going to be outlined before the year is out. However once you have calculated your own valuation for Vametco as part of your due diligence, consider the comment made by the company (and mentioned in the most recent Proactive interview) that Bushveld Energy will potentially be a bigger contributor to the company than Bushveld Vametco. There are several aspects to the company that are not yet contributing income to the bottom line such as:

Bushveld Energy - business plan expected soon
Mokopane - world class resource, mining licence expected soon
Lemur Imalato coal - entering final phase before construction - possible spin off to separate company
10% share of Afritin (ATM) - going into active production this year

Personally I haven't found a more attractive company on AIM to invest in than BMN, but if you find one I would certainly like to hear about it.

I note several questions today regarding whether financial figures will be released in the Q2 results.

The simple answer is no, unless there is a change of policy.

The policy was outlined in the the previous (Q1) update: "In line with standard market practice, the Company only present operational information during quarterly updates, with financial information reported in the interim and full year results"

Therefore the figures will be in the H1 update in September. The Q2 update will contain production information only, which (as has been done extensively in the past) will be plugged in to various forum contributors calculations to give you a (company unconfirmed) financial valuation.

Whether you take the forum contributors interpretation of the figures as a true reflection of the company or not is up to you. However we will no doubt have a number of contributions of similar value so take that whatever way you want. I don't believe they have been wrong so far, aside from the odd quickly corrected typo.

I believe Alfa has an article in progress about this, not sure if it was completed or not.

I don't share the opinion that the Q2 update for BVL will be two weeks after BE. I think last quarter was an anomaly caused by possible Sojitz delay.

As Fortune seems to be in full media mode right now it wouldn't surprise me to see the Q2 update tomorrow alongside another interview.