RE: BESS Project Delivered3 Dec 2018 12:35
I don't doubt that this is coming, the problem at the moment is that unless I have missed something obvious the company has not communicated any expected margins. To attribute value we need to understand the expected margin on a potential $468m so we can start extrapolating. For every say $1m of value what percentage is VRFB hardware, labour, electrolyte cost, support/maintenance, profit etc. When we have something like a pie chart showing percentages with a heathy profit then investors will have something to digest and use for the investment case.
So if for example we expect to win half the business that's $234m. An after costs margin of 5% that's $11.7m, if we expect an after costs margin of 20% that's $46.8m. What if initially costs exceed margins and the only real benefit is V sales from BMN to BE? Obviously we can talk $468m of contract value but if it runs at a loss due to setup costs it won't contribute any positive EPS potentially until further contract wins.
So still too early for any BE valuation and for me it's currently "priced in" at 0p. Which is fine, because BMN is still massively undervalued just on V production. It will make that BE re-rate when it occurs all the more explosive.