Member Info for SickOfTheRatRace

@Nick definitely upside to that. As you mentioned many times BMN is a growth stock.

Last time I checked (end of Jan) in terms of London listed companies in the mining sector for those with a PE (i.e. not loss making) the average PE was 23.28 !

I think we can be sure of one thing and that is that Fortune is not going to take the word of the mine management any longer and put out guidance to investors before they prove they can deliver the figures.

It would seem (at least from the outside) that last year assurances were being given to BMN from Vametco that they could achieve a certain level of production and when that production wasn't being met it would appear they continued to convey that they could meet the figures. BMN were then giving us production guidance based on this and the mine struggled to meet it which then necessitated several downward revisions the closer it got to the end of 2018.

Once bitten twice shy which is why BMN are not going to give any guidance until after Q1. Now they can project based on ACTUAL rather than promised production and adjust appropriately so it is conservative enough to allow for a certain number of days lost output. If they meet the figure and it's higher than this year then great, if they beat it, wonderful.

Personally I still don't see the relationship between the declining share price and an EBITDA of $107m, as pdub has reminded us there was only a disparity on production of 40t. Given the ongoing suppression of the price anyone would think the mine had closed for the next month rather than making over $2m a week - the current price really makes no sense given the profits currently being generated.

Whilst I have sympathy for those who have higher averages than todays share price and are currently underwater, to coin a colloquialism you really don't know you've been born.

Being 60-70% under when all the company had was ore in the ground, no mine, no production and no income, with lights-on placings and being surpressed by every bear, commentator, bucket shop outfit and shorter to within an inch of it's life, they were the days to sweat and complain.

Today with your current investment you have a situation that couldn't be more anymore removed from that if you tried. A company with no debt, over $100m EBITDA from a producing mine, on the cusp of paying a dividend, about to achieve with Bushveld Energy something that 99% of other businesses could only dream of, about to build a power plant to finally bring mains power to a large part of Madagascar, a mining licence on the way for the greatest Vanadium resource in the world, achieving a Nitrovan sales price that was only a dream when we took over the mine, the list goes on.

So yes I sympathise with your current pain, but you are in one of the greatest companies AIM has seen or will ever likely see. The company is immeasurably different to the one so many of us invested in several years ago and about as de-risked as it is possible to be. Of course Do Your Own Research, then hold and you will be handsomely rewarded.

Not heard this name in relation to Bushveld Minerals before but this page says they are an advisor on previous raises.

Probably not of much interest now for the historical part but may be good to know in future.

https://www.fieldfisher.com/sectors/energy-and-natural-resources/mining-and-metals

Perhaps some of you may have heard of or recognise some of the faces here: https://www.fieldfisher.com/people?sector=energy-and-natural-resources

Thankfully there is significant news due Q1 such as:

Bushveld Energy update including confirmation the battery is fully operational, electrolyte plant progress etc
Lemur update including the outcome of the BFS etc
Dividend policy announcement

I think the dividend policy has the potential to rocket the share price the most if it includes some level of confirmation as to when they are going to start paying and the framework confirms the target percentage.

There is no current target until confirmed in the next update as per RNS, but the indication only was that achieving 90% of nameplate capacity should be possible which at 3,750mtv nameplate is 3,375mtv.

Not a figure to hold the company to, was just an indication. There is no official target until confirmed by BMN in the next update.

Presentations mentioned in the RNS are now up:

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/presentations/

Hi 993444 I was taking the figure you provided which I assume was based on them already having $15m to invest and only raising $10m.

Did I misunderstand?

If it's actually a 100% dilution that is definitely going to put a lot of investors off until after the event. Although it would be nice to think they would get a placing away at 5/6p when the current price is 4p I really can't see it for an AIM junior that only sprung up a year ago. Get the price up to 8p then maybe. I would expect 100% is going to be at some discount to the prevailing price.

Of course other finance may be available particularly as a particular stakeholder is awash with cash right now. I can imagine they might be more sympathetic to a premium placing as they understand the business better than any other investor and at the end of the day it will ultimately benefit the same shareholders (assuming an investor currently holds both).

Given the prospects that's not enough to get me to sell, but then it's enough to get me to hold off buying more.

Almost....

No no. No no no no. No no no no. No no there's no listing!

*repeat

No no no no no no no.

This is mentioned about once a week!

Previously determined to be meaningless and a quirk of LSE.

Life as a BMN investor is a game of chess. I am pretty good at chess but I certainly know who the grandmasters are.

With respect to SOLG although in the past we sometimes made comparisons with BMN it is pointless making an comparison now. SOLG continue to make placings and director share options and whilst they have a healthy cash balance (at least as per the last report) they haven't just posted over $100m EBITDA from production like BMN have.

BMN are cash generative, SOLG are cash burners.

993444 good calculation thank you.

Personally I think there is also going to be a small raise for working capital, say £500,000. So if we take your expected dilution of £10,000,000 and add £500,000 to that we get £10.5m. I can only take the price today as a guide so if we assume a placing value (probably slightly generous of 3.75p) we are going to need to print 280m shares and probably a bunch of warrants too which means we are probably looking at a 33% dilution to get the plant built.

The only issue I see is the hit that the share price will take for that level of dilution. Any placees are going to be aware of this too. Therefore we could see a placing price of 3p or less to allow for the dilution and the it seems obligatory instant upside AIM placees have to see in order to participate in which case we could be looking at 350m shares issued and a dilution of 39.1%. That's could be a big hit on the price from here.

Of course there is always the possibility that a rabbit could be pulled from the hat and they can raise a large chunk via debt instruments instead against future production as they will have already proven that production is possible.

The tricky bit to calculate is whether before this placing occurs there will be any significant appreciation in the price that will allow a higher placing price. Although confirmation of pilot production and sales may help is small pilot production going to significantly move the share price when there are already 545m shares in issue? Time will tell on this one.

At present I still think the price could go either way and the threat of that dilution is going to hold this back from true value. Once that is out of the way it's all gravy so to speak.

At the moment my opinion is still to hold and I will continue to do so. The news coming out of the company is positive.

Interested to hear fellow investors views on this also.

"The fact that the Battery works is not news though"

Well clearly this is news to Bolgas following his misleading post last night.

@pb940 I know you were talking mostly in jest about an RNS immediately prior to the indaba presentation but there is actually prior for this, the day several of us attended the Proactive Investors presentation the RNS for Vametco was released and was then discussed at the presentation (which occurred after the market closed). Fortune gave a nice smile when he was describing BMN the explorer "and as of today, producer", as did I when I heard it. :-)

Perhaps history may indeed repeat itself.

"Besides they can’t get one battery working, that’s the truth."

@Bolgas given that a bunch of investors were standing by the battery in an image posted earlier today it is extraordinarily brave of you to go out on a limb and state beyond doubt that the battery isn't working when a Bushveld Energy update is imminent.

You don't take investors to your current flagship to show off a non-working install.

@YTSS

27/06/18 - 17.5p
05/07/18 - 24.6p

71.1% rise in two weeks.

12/09/18 - 19p
26/09/18 - 31p

61.2% rise in two weeks.

29/10/18 - 28p
13/11/18 - 47.5p

58.9% rise in two weeks.

So no, not ambitious at all - history in this case speaks for itself.

@WestSands in case you missed it the information released was that Vametco is making over $2m a week in EBITDA.

Therefore the chance of dilution is as good as absolute zero for working capital, if there were to be any dilution I would expect it to be for an item that would be earnings positive, i.e. the benefit in income would outweigh the cost.

Not sure where you get your information from Strider but in terms of London listed companies in the mining sector for those with a PE (i.e. not loss making) the average PE is 23.28.

Where you get 5 is "run of the mill" from I have no idea. There are only six companies out of 26 that have a PE of less than 6 that I can see and 8 with a PE of over 20.

Rio Tinto which would be considered a "stable" stock rather than a growth stock comes in at 8.43.

For clarity, I have no agenda other than to see the company realise its ambitions and ultimately become a producer we can start talking about in the same conversation as Glencore or Rio Tinto. With their assets BMN can most certainly achieve a position where we are generating profits in excess of £1bn a year.

Although I am occasionally negative I will only be so when I feel it is justified and always try to balance with positives. In general I remain overwhelmingly positive about the future of BMN. I have only ever bought BMN and to date haven't sold a single share.