RE: Lithium market maturing6 May 2019 20:20
Has anybody had a listen to the podcast?
There were two really interesting points that I thought Simon Moores made. The first was regarding off take agreements, or more the legality behind them. It seems so far that most offtake agreements that have been signed with Junior miners are more like MOU’s or letters of intent. These off take agreements are along way from the “Take or Pay” contracts that exist in the commodities market generally, and are far less valuable in terms of using them in a business plan to show to a bank manager when wanting to borrow money.
This is all that has been available to Junior mining companies thus far, and the companies have had to in effect fund them selves. This is changing rapidly, and with the rate of growth, downstream companies will have to start committing if they want the Juniors to succeed. (Did you know that the tesla giga factory at full capacity would have taken all of the 2016 capacity of the big 3 producers!)
I wondered if our “offtake” agreement with Hanwa was more than a letter of intent? Maybe somebody who is better at reading contracts than me could answer that?
It could be one of the reason why it has been difficult for us to find funding so far? That would make make me feel better about the situation we are in in a way, because it means that its not bcn that has a problem, but more the junior lithium space in general. Our time will come!
The second interesting point was where they both (Joe Lowry and Simon Moores) see lithium carb/hydroxide settling. Joe made the point that hydroxide would not continue to offer much of a premium to carbonate, and that they saw prices settling between the low teens and 17 thousand dollars a ton.
Now our pfs was done with li carb at $11000 a ton.
Costing $4000 a ton to produce, which at 17,500 tons a year would give a gross profit of 122.5 million dollars.
Now considering the funding problems that all juniors are having, the problems the brine producers are having increasing their output due to water rationing (which is something that is probably going to get worse rather than better) and the fact that the only new supply is Spodumene concentrate coming out if Oz (which needs to be processed in China to make a battery grade product), then I see no reason why our li carb can’t sell at the higher end of the estimates.
So if we take a sale price of $16000 a tonne, then we get $210,000,000 annual gross profit.
Then bring online phase two, we get a gross profit of $420,000,000. Don't forget that the pfs barely scratches the area we are starting mining in (7% was discussed on the kdnc board I think!), and then we have the JV areas with Cadence to go at.
We can keep 35,000 tonnes a year going indefinitely! But this wont happen. It will scale up rapidly and get as big as we need!
(Sorry for the use of ton and tonne. Never sure which one we use nowadays)