Member Info for Shorn

Excellent results
I wonder how much of that positive data is priced in the current SP ?

One for theiceberg et al....
The processing of the Gold - Copper currently carried out bey Newcrest in the same region - does it present a technical - processing problem introducing a copper rich Copper - Gold ore ?
ATB Shorn

@dabber
sorry cont'd - you seen how much copper is in his cars & the charging points Biden is promising...
IMO ATB Shorn

@dabber
Elon may have to yet....
Y

@M-T
Not wanting to wade into the history of this debate. And i stand to be corrected by those more in the know than me particularly regulatory / statutory issues.
For me a JV is the most likely outcome.
Whenever i have sold a company (not mining on AIM) we never signed an EA without knowing / negotiating the headline deal. In fact when trawling the suitors many different deals where discussed / negotiated before agreeing on the final one.
Each of the 3 times we did conclude an exit we did it close to the pre-agreed (HOT's) price, otherwise we would of pulled out.
DD proved up assets, trade, legal's, and the " close fit" for the purchasers aspirations for growth etc.
Value agreed upfront is not function of current or prior SP. The resultant SP after the transaction is a function of price paid for a T/O or JV and the maths (balance sheet etc) all follow the agreed deal to "set" the deal / SP on the announcement date.
I can't imagine ARCM BOD's agreeing an EA on the basis of a multiplier on a moving SP (early doors) - what i can imagine is the BOD's would warrant against data coming out after EA , T/O, JV that materially effects the future value (SP if applicable).
IMO ATB Shorn

The Iceberg blog has it spot on IMO.
And particularly where he states...
"XTR has talked about finding new nearby porphyries that can attract an economy of scale in the same vein as the Cadia-Ridgeway grouping."
This in my opinion is the single biggest affect to the SP increasing in the future. All other activities that XTR are involved with are side shows, and if anything helping cash flow.
So for me it's all about what we can establish / grow during 2021 as increased assets at BR.
AA and other majors are looking at a menu of M&A's and JV's to capture the super cycle, BR needs to stand out.
IMO ATB Shorn

So we have established the weather is not to blame for the most recent SP inactivity.
I'm looking to invest significantly in this company, and have read and read and watched - all looks and feels good, and we know the usual DD considerations are...
Copper grade, logistical challenges of the location, the size and depth of resource and how that affects extraction, the local geology and potential for additional resources, infrastructure requirements for the mine including processing, transport requirements for the resource, the company financial situation and estimated future placings and funding, the experience of directors (including skin in the project) and geologists, complexities around licensing, permits or legal challenges, and an estimate of the current and future value of the company versus its market cap, plus diversified opportunities (3 pillars).
Only thing i'm struggling with is that folks on this board don't seem to be banging on about what's good, forthcoming, or on the horizon - that drives readers interest in the company....
If i go on alternate sites you often get a lot of froth about nothing - so does anybody here have something to say that this is not a house of cards, with a company that is too spread with too many focus points ?
Please don't take me the wrong way as a newbie - but i usually feel a pull from the share chat and i am not feeling / reading the love - lol
IMO ATB Shorn

@aprogersen
Hi - we communicated over at ARCM, i am looking at this stock, and checking data flow, plus RNS's and videos.
Many opportunities it would seem, with various option plays (divestment, JV-mining, proving up resources, in good areas close to surface at certain locations), and obviously the key here is copper.
But am wondering why the SP and "chat" is somewhat in the doldrums ?
I sense CCZ are quite widely spread in their operations, is it a case of many balls (of varying quality) in the air at the same time ? And the fact is that any one of them could effect the SP trajectory...?
Are we looking at a time line of forthcoming data release hence a fairly quiet board meanwhile ?
ATB Shorn

@aprogerson
Also add in under exploration over the last c10 years - creates the environment for a super cycle...
ATB Shorn

@Cygnus - i like your maths realistic to where we are at now.
And the original AA agreement was based on lower copper & gold values...
Add a super cycle, and neighbours with possible interest, and more district to explore, all into the mix...
You have a growing potential "perfect storm".
Last week Pierre Lassonde said if you have a viable copper / gold deposit as a junior - you are in the perfect navana...
The current share price will only react in the way investors want (significantly) to tangible news (assay & a revised model to help with the maths you are suggesting).
With the above info SP goes up, some jump - take profit, and the wise ones sit on hands.
Then the journey begins - 80% triggered or not, further drilling to prove up and produce a JORC, and other interest from majors, a decision to mine resulting in JV ?? to prove further, then an asset sale ("with a bow" as CB stated)...
Nothing fast or over night here for me.
IMO of course.
ATB Shorn

@SeisNav
Funny thing is the LTH's will still be in the money if it did drop ;-)
ATB Shorn

22.5p for me

@Mikiesunday
I know we are not 100% sure of a 3 monthly interim release - i wonder if it's worth emailing them and asking ?
Just a thought ?
ATB Shorn

@LittleWing
CB has said he wants to put a bow round this system and sell.
Problem is the devil is in the detail.
Until you have "proven" the resource then until that point AA are going to be interested say in a JV - with some further mechanism to buy further in or outright when satisfied.
Obviously we are not GGP taking c 2years proving up Havieron to an MRE but there will need to be a revised JORC.
All this will take time but with an increasing SP.
Happy to stand corrected - IMO ATB Shorn

@marco777
Decided to sell some GGP (while all is quiet there) and top up ARCM just in case things move quickly...
Sound familiar :-)
ATB Shorn

@Gallmat
Totally agree with what you are saying.
1The BOD knows the value of the potential AA deal - otherwise why do this now ?
More Likely A JV hence deferment of options, and clarity to AA on the future dilution, plus the BOD have skin in the JV moving forward.
I topped up £50k this morning on this news.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Teaye72
I stand to be corrected by those who know more - but there is only one reason those folks are not taking profits now.
By not diluting and taking shares they are expecting a significant uplift.
You can dress it how you like short term profit Vs longer term real wealth is my take.
You could also say it's a message (after all they are in an exclusivity period and can't say anything) - the message is "look we are in this with you guys, real skin... and all is going well..."
IMO ATB Shorn

@JC, @Ella,
I think CB reads this board and will recognise the need for some explanation on his next ZM post.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Cygnus7
Excellent summary estimation - clear as to what we need to achieve in averages from size Vs grade .
The other uncertainty is the mention in CB's last recording with ZM of a double porphyry. Which myself and others definitely heard him mention. This implies more / additional at depth possibly through vein like extension(s).
Which may add to the model and your calculations.
For me i think the mass and grade will get to where it needs to be - the question is will a major / AA step up to the plate early doors and take a position and have CB prove it up or buy outright ?
IMO ATB Shorn

@cyberiachas
Good find and interesting to assess...
I am no geologist but i have copied this from the summary...
"The mineralized porphyries and associated alteration and mineralization occur in the hanging wall of the northwest orientated Poelzer fault which dips steeply at 85 degrees to the southwest. The pipe-like mineralized system measures 1.2 kilometres north-south by 0.85 kilometres east-west by 1.6 kilometres vertically. Phyllic (quartz-sericite-pyrite) alteration occurs predominantly in the upper levels of the system and on the shoulders of the potassic alteration...."
To me the grade of copper seems less than 0.3% BUT the scale looks bigger at the moment. But the orientation seems less accessible than BR for mining purposes.
In all honesty i would say that iceberg and others would be better versed in understanding and decoding this data.
But comparing is a good idea.
IMO ATB Shorn