Member Info for Shorn

@news
Useful to revisit theicebergs "mock" of a revised 2D model after just a few drills - interesting to see that although theiceberg was clearly pointing out that this was a poor (early days) mock - the size starts to look similar now following H6 news...
http://icebergshares.blogspot.com/2021/01/xtract-racecourse-becoming-little.html?m=1
The cross hatched shows the deeper H1 discovery, and the green dusting the extra width now proven.
No doubt we are going to exceed the mass required to exceed 2Mt (AA potential buy back trigger), it will be interesting to see grades from assay H2 shortly. Though i believe the consensus is that the average grade should be acceptable (due to the data already established by AA's original drilling way back).
IMO ATB Shorn

@Benhowell459
Good find.
I don't think you are reading too much into it - what you know is AA are operationally following the market direction, and putting boots on the ground.
Theiceberg metioned earlier Newmont had been sniffing around (would like to know more :-) )...
Newmont i believe have a gold mine somewhere in Aussie way out in the outback - BR location must seem like a dream by comparison operationally...
IMO ATB Shorn

@YORKIEBOY
Is this a Quantock fund rebalancing ?
And because it's taken a few days to process the transaction the SP has been flat / dropped a little ?
(forgive the ignorance here)
ATB Shorn

Hi JLPpositive,
Thanks for that and very interesting, and i totally agree we are onwards & upwards with a great horizon - with transferable technology some of which is IP protected.
ATB Shorn

@smose
With your cross company knowledge - am i correct in assuming that JLP has the greater Copper future growth & profitability of the three companies ?
ATB Shorn

@Sq52
Taking your final 2 points - with a JV GGP's SP started to rise over the last +1 year fairly dramatically - i believe pretty much in line with the first part of the Lassonde Curve (see below), helped by TR1's en-route as you say.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/
I think for XTR to get on the L-Curve starting blocks AA need to be involved perhaps not with a purchase but certainly with an initial exclusivity agreement while the asset(s) are proved up (similar to that of AA <-> ARCM in Zambia).
IMO ATB Shorn

@longfell
Looking forward to the next RNS....
I wonder to what extent the exclusivity with AA shapes what information (or the timing) is released by ARCM through RNS's.
I realise that there are rules around meaningful data release to the market.
I suppose if there is no legal basis to hold data back from the market - then ARCM's BOD's will be pushing to get as much data out to support implied / real value asset Vs AA being inclined to negotiate a deal earlier to ensure some icing on the cake (embedded value) is saved by AA for later (post deal)...
IMO ATB Shorn

To add after reading all the posts below...
AA's approach to ARCM's Copper assets in Zambia shows that they do nothing without plenty of DD and would not proceed with XTR without an exclusive arrangement (agreement?) whilst proving up the wider RC area for a final buy in / purchase.
So my take once this looks & feels pre-JORC above 2Mt then AA will tie XTR for an exclusive period while they carry out DD, look at the wider value over the 2Mt and then agree to a fair value independent valuation. This suits AA & XTR.
Crystal ball gazing i would say meaningful discussions would start towards the end of phase 2, and exclusivity would go to the end of this year - possibly into next where a deal might or might not be done with AA. Clearly the longer the process the higher the demand and price for Copper due to pressures already building in the supply / demand balance.
IMO that's where i sit with this with process.
ATB Shorn

@jwoz
It's interesting how the description / wording is changing on this board to describe where this ever expanding discovery is taking us.
H6 was (correct me if i am wrong) intersecting H1 proving up the Cigar width at depth.
Now the word isn't width - because it's no longer a Cigar, we are now drilling "depth" c1Km (with the additional benefit of a H1 intersect). And it's interesting how the loose description of 1 Km x 1 Km x 1 Km was used loosely is now becoming more of a reality and potentially beyond.
Assuming multiple porphyries (not my wording) we could be looking again at the "Cathedral" with multiple spiers on it's side (extensions - description previously posted)...
For those who may not of seen this image (unlikely but worth the repeat) - we are now going to be using Geophysics in the wooded area to the north and other areas to the south too, beyond the areas already drilled by Xtract & AA (before the newest exploration technology was available).
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8229M_2-2021-1-25.pdf
IMO ATB Shorn

@Bloodshot
Where it applies to the DD previously carried out by AAL and the "deal", all will be part a to-do list of actions to be carried whilst working to an agreed timetable up to completion in July if not before. I think an earlier poster mentioned ducks in a row - absolutely the case. In fact nothing is happening with ARCM without explicit agreements between all parties, including Rothschild right in the middle - otherwise the "deal" would be off, and the end of the EA extension.
I am personally encouraged by what i have been hearing recently.
On previous occasions when i have sold to a PLC (not mining) - there was so much "house keeping" which had to be done in order to satisfy the outcome of DD it was relentless - the whole process from start to finish to around 1 year on the 3 occasions i have done this. Sit on hands folks and watch for the "markers" they are confusing yet indicators to the process.
IMO ATB Shorn

@NatColeKing
Someone at JLP or WH Ireland or both is reading this board.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Docit
And given the proven porphyry length, 750m - 850m for H6, is WAY bigger than the minimum average dimension to achieve the 2Mt for AA potential 80% buy back / in...
MO ATB Shorn

@Troajan
30% don't think there will be a super cycle, BUT they haven't enough Copper supply now based on the Covid disruption...
The elephant in the room is the US stimulus package, and the US having EV and electric charging points nationwide by 2030, and the electrification of the developing economies too...
I would just love to know what the 30% believe would need to happen to the availability & supply of Copper to trigger a super cycle - because i can't think of any more pressure points than what we are facing....
IMO ATB Shorn

@arryaccountant
Which will not be priced in the current SP.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Carling
We have all been here before a few weeks ago...
BOD - RNS response...
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/media-speculation-impxpn2ydlh5o6s.html
AAL will have been aware of this in the initial disclosures at the start of DD.
A non event for the purpose of TO / JV as the BOD will of had to warranty against any fall out or cost IF ever it went any where.
Can we move on please.
IMO ATB Shorn

thanks

i don't tweet - can somebody provide the link please ?

@Jonah58...
" Seems as though we are pretty chummy with the ministry of mines. Mega deal brewing, IMHO."
Possibly contacts of one of the BOD's...
Dr Mathews Phosa...
IMO ATB Shorn

@LUFC1111
When you say... "would be surprised if broker note has anything under 30p..."
What triggers a broker note...
The II's invested in ?
New news ?
radical growth / profits (today) ?
or all of the above ?
ATB Shorn

Personally, i don't think these guys are crude enough to go do a "quick" deal to show who's boss...
The process ARCM & AAL are proceeding through are well progressed, and i suspect we are at the point of crossing the T's & I's, and as a previous poster said it's all about the assets (value) - the time now will be about assessing the latest position with respect to the deal, latest P&L and balance sheets, running up to the transaction / completion date. In my experience updating DD is a continuous process right up to the 11th hour, either using final accounts or more recently (on business sale to a corporate) i have used, a "locked box" method (accountancy term).
The Botswana deal was a no brainer, but had to be outside the parameters of the TO / JV process. It will of had the blessing of both Rothchild's & AAL.
However, the purpose cannot of only been a no brainer, and for that reason i believe it forms part of future plans for the BOD's. Additionally, there has been some previous comment about regulation rules applying (rule 15?) around shell companies my knowledge around this is zero.
IMO ATB Shorn