Member Info for Shorn

@Shiner75
Thanks for the pointer - will give it a read.
I presume Simon Thompson carries some weight @ Seeking Alpha...?
ATB Shorn

@theiceberg
Excellent update - clarity on the situation now and moving forward.
Totally agree with your view that the current SP has no future value built in, and with further data (assays) it will most certainly rise - this could be the week...
IMO ATB Shorn

@Small_Holding
I have experienced 3 company exits where we have used EA's.
The maturity date is simply the long stop date - not the planned deal conclusion date.
It is quite usual to extend the EA as you get more comfortable with the target company, this allows for additional, and updated DD, and a process of internal house keeping "ticking-off" jointly agreed items to be resolved prior to the deal completion.
For me this deal is happening and could land at any point.
In the background pressure on AAL will be mounting as the clock ticks closer to the end of the current EA. As AAL will need to agree the deal or ARCM will move on with other options.
IMO ATB Shorn

@aprogerson
On the LSE share trades - it shows those 250k / £17.25 blocks as mainly sells...
Although i know often buys are shown as sells (no idea how or why tho)...
IMO ATB Shorn

@dorfan01
Good find.
Interesting title to the article...
“Jubilee is perfectly poised to play a commanding role in the processing of copper as we also look to further implement our strategy more widely.”
More widely - more places in Zambia, and say - Australia ??
IMO ATB Shorn

@arryaccountant
I have 2.7m shares at an average of 9.8p. So for me the last 6 months have been excellent, and Leon has been an example of how to run a business and communicate it with the market - i rate him highly.
Clearly timing is everything, including buying on the rise, PGM pricing and JLP's future with the recovery of copper from tailings.
What drew me to invest significantly was also...
->The green push EV's, accelerated growth post Covid (Biden's plan), and a potential super-cycle
->Tailings at surface - little risk unlike exploration and mining
->Tailings in potential vast supply in the Zambian copper belt
->JLP already making money
->IP's on certain processes
->Transferable technology - Australia ?
->Zambia's improving socio-economic and political improvements
->Colin B's & Leon C's contacts in the region together with some note-able in-country board members.
We are in need of updates and for specific projects to come on-line. We as investors also need to be patient.
Personally, if you can i would be topping up because this share is only going one way in the near term, though my time line is initially 2-3 years.
IMO ATB Shorn

@longfell
I agree with that - but i doubt it's a 3rd party prompting this deeper drilling, and could be as you say confirming technical / asset values on the run up to completion.
For me this has numerous signs that a deal is being done / completed - final date is the difficult one - so patience is key here.
And the type of deal is also speculation but my instinct says a JV...
IMO ATB Shorn

@longfell
In my own experience with an EA in place no engagement with 3rd party will happen until a deal with AAL is off the table (announced by RNS).
AAL's - DD although initially completed will be being continually updated right through to the day of the deal completion, including: legals, financials, & technicals, etc...
Meanwhile an "agreed" hit list of things to settle, and sort (house keeping) whilst working to a timetable will be being processed.
Potentially - deeper drilling results, and alternate majors waiting in the wings will be ever present reminders that AAL should not leave this to the 11th hour to agree a deal due to costs to date & risk of losing out, and in-fact the closer to the long stop date in July the stronger ARCM's position.
Personally, i never entered into an exit (3x business sales in my case - non-mining) with an EA not knowing the end result, i.e. the shape / mechanics of the deal and the head line price (heads of terms).
The DD, together with further results firm up the deal proving up the price all brokered with Rothschild's in the middle.
IMO ATB Shorn

Thanks Northern - a good update.
All this good news and the financial benefit of the copper to look forward to !
ATB Shorn

@lezzils
The Jubilee website has presentations that LC has provided.
Watching the last few, will give you a feel for the company.
Then there are the RNS's in recent times to read through too - after watching the presentations.
After that you will be as informed as most. However, you are not too late for the growth to the SP that will follow in the fullness of time.
IMO ATB Shorn

Big enough for a TR1 ?

@WD
Totally agree with your view.
I have been through 3 exit processes (not mining industry) and the whole year is about initial negotiation , DD, and process (house keeping) and the final months are about crossing T's and dotting I's - hence the extension to EA.
ATB Shorn

@CM
I am not sure if the specific content of the EA is known, other may well know more.
In my personal experience of EA's is that by joint agreement you can extend, an "auto - right" to extend in AAL's favour is very unlikely.
IF they agreed to an extension - you can assume it's a deal in the making and the preparation to that end is taking longer BUT that they would be proceeding with a deal.
IMO ATB Shorn

I would be inclined to think that any deal will not be linked to the end of an exclusivity period.
The end date in July will be viewed as the long stop date.
AA will be under pressure to complete on any deal way before that date as the closer it comes without a deal strengthens ARCM's position / options.
The time line will depend on factors identified in DD and they will be working to a timetable to achieve the deal.
It could therefore complete at any time in my view.
ATB Shorn

@RP
I totally agree with your view. And it's in Leon's nature to over provide / succeed.
IMO ATB Shorn

@CT
It takes both parties to agree an extension.
This would represent an ideal time for ARCM to consider their options, pressure on AAL increases the closer to the deadline we get....
IMO ATB Shorn

@Tmh1980
That would make sense to me too.
More importantly (whilst i do not know the full history surrounding this ) it does have a feel of ARCM getting their house in order on the run up to a deal.
IMO ATB Shorn

Looking back at the April 2020 presentation page 11...
Bushranger Project Budget (without figures)...
->Drilling to extend existing Racecourse Mineral Resource
down dip and along strike at depth
->More detailed IP Survey (Footrot area, Southern Monzonite
targets, Northern Extension of Racecourse Mineralization)
and interpretation of new data as well as combine new data
with existing MIMDAS IP data
->Drilling to test IP targets
->Re-estimate Racecourse Mineral Resource
->Senior Project Geologist
->Tenement Costs, Legal fees, Stakeholder Liaison
->Regional exploration adjoining EL’s
We are now a year on with the benefit of hindsight - i think it would be fair to say that XTR have stuck to the objective of the original plan (albeit the figures are different - and the future is now clearer as a result of the plan). Investors should take comfort in the step process that has & is taking place.
To quote theiceberg following the recent data "the Geo's are proceeding as would be expected..."
IMO ATB Shorn

@Joeman
I agree with your judgement - XTR have a resource which is quickly altering from increasing a single porphyry mass to 2Mt, to a district wide potential which would obviously be larger again, and ALL the objective plans that come with it Geophysics, phase 2 drilling, 3D modelling and an independent software system to assess mine viability.
CB's language has changed - i think the transition from CB's description of process to the production of tangible data & results are a game changer - transformation, and one which will impact on SP increase over the next few months and beyond in my eyes.
Potential investors reading this need to understand the possible upside from early entry.
IMO, DYOR, ATB Shorn

In an earlier post i mentioned "shows / signs" that are markers of a proceedable deal in process, for example....
-> Extension to exclusivity period
-> Appointment of Rothschild's
-> House keeping (like altering / aligning year end dates)
-> And now silence - PR / Twitter, et al
On the run up to the near term deal date and subject to RNS regulatory requirements - AA will insist on radio silence, and ARCM BOD's will be relying on this board to respect that they have both their and our end game in mind.
In this period now DD from last year will be being updated - technicals, financials, legals, and ongoing house keeping will include that all future AA risks are mitigated, and indemnifying against each & every ARCM disclosed warranties.
It serves no purpose for either party to wait until the end of the exclusivity period to agree or fail to agree. The July date will be a long stop date, and not related to a specific event. Silence is painful but above all sit on hands and wait...
IMO ATB Shorn