Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Yes, Hellohihi, but 27p in mid-2021 was ~£172m without a commercial helium and hydrogen find like we now have. And that's highly relevant, don't you think? First target.

Everybody selling today, congratulations on taking 100% of the news risk for 10% of the eventual reward.

Magmanus, you sound like all the "experts" who forecast on what day the world will end. how many of these were there by now? 1000s? so about the same number as miserable doomsters on this board over the past week. most have left or flipped opinion. so will you.

It's funny how many chances this share gives, being able to buy at 0.3ish for an entire day after the post-drill RNS & interview seems insane in hindsight. Being able to buy at 2.3-2.6ish for the entire day today after the full results RNS & interview seems insane already, and won't only do so in hindsight.

Yep, me too, bought another 3.5 million shares at an average of just over 2.48 average this morning, what's not to love, sitting at 85m£ market cap AFTER not only the initial drill report, but a lot of de-risking with fantastic helium concentration and strong hydrogen results too and all of it as free gas rather than in fluids, never jump a gift shark in the mouth, don't mind if i do take some more at this price, even if it means averaging up for me

Not 3.5bn back then , Islandgirl, true. But market cap on 6th Aug 2021 at close price of 28p was 172m£. Market cap now is 85m£. So there's a lot to go still despite dilution to get back to that market cap - and that was without any helium find back then, so it wouldn't take an optimist or dreamer to argue that fair market cap should be higher than back then.

Musk, we're seen that all over the past week, from "close will be below 0.3" the day after the Thursday RNS, to "definitely dropping below 1p" on Monday evening after the 100%+ day, to "all sell now, hurry, this will go to 0.1 when the news are released", to posts saying nothing else than "timbeeeeer". Everyone knows the story about the boy crying wolf, there'll be a time when it will be true that it'll be tough to make a new high, but for now the boy crying wolf is full of s***, no wolf there when the market cap is half of what it had reached already in the past, when there was no helium resource found, no hydrogen, and no talk about the company aiming to fast track to commerciability.

"Feels like a roulette bet on number 0?"

I mean, you say lot of risk factors have been removed by now. The interview by the CEO (while I do agree with you that some parts of it get overexaggerated by rampers) has had lots of encouraging elements, as has the initial RNS with the higher helium levels in the drilling muds vs previous drill, drilling 40m into the basement, the hydrogen, the faults, the rise in temperature. The lack of "operational update" RNS since then is also a - cautiously - optimistic signal that there were no problems during the tests. And yet you still find the odds 1 to 37 stacked against you? 0 in roulette?

All fair games, but the one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is how you go on about "helium find is priced in".

I'm sure you have access to the data too to verify that the average market cap of Helium One ever since the company first listed is just under 57m£. The current market cap is 45m£. That makes the statement "but a helium find is in the price" a bit silly really - so according to you, at an average point in time of HE1's existence, a huge helium find was in the price. Or are you saying it only because market cap has risen in the past month? Well, the anomaly there was when the company's market cap was

"why would anyone jump in before test results? Either taking risk make loads money or lose the lot"

You kind of answer your own question, no? It's about expected return, as any investment, and the subjective probabilities for failure and success differ among investors, which is why for many expected return will be highly positive based on their subjective probability. Let's use 50/50 for the sake of the example, shall we? And say in the downside scenario they really "lose the lot", fine, so in the upside scenario let's use something conservative, what was the high of the market cap range when there was no commercial helium find? 180m£ or thereabouts? Let's use that, even though WITH a commercial helium find, market cap should easily surpass past market cap highs when there were none. So you roughly make 3x as much in the upside scenario than you lose in the downside scenario, and with these subjective probabilities have pretty high positive return, at which time it's more a matter of sizing the trade (because yes, given the dispersion of the possible outcomes, you won't size as big as you would if it was -5% downside scenario/+15% upside scenario).

You might have very different subjective probabilities, or other upside scenario market cap expectations, but you should realize why for many people taking a position *right now* can make a lot of sense.

"all I am saying is wait for the test results that will confirm, if commercial or not and that is the truth"

It's not all you're saying though, is it? Your posts are absurdly biased to only point out the downside scenario. Which exists, yes. As does the upside scenario, but not once you've added where share price is likely to go in that scenario. Your quote above sounds like you're a saint who just has others' wellbeing in mind, but who's supposed to believe that with incredibly biased one-sided posts at the best of times, and blatant cross-ramping of other shares at the worst of times?

That's the post you signed up for, Jacata? Wowzer.

What a statement, Cupa! "If I was a day trader, I'd not be holding overnight either"

Well yeah, that's the definition of a day trader, isn't it? haha

Still a chance to see highest daily close since the RNS, 1.49 all that's needed for it.

Sounds good in theory Kevin, but you saw how it moved on Tuesday early morning from 8 trades, 50%+. Yes, I know it retreated since then, but that's how quick it can move on early buying pressure. Do you truly think that if there's a 7am RNS showing commercial helium, with a ton of other people also then planning to buy into it when market opens, that you'll get it at a 30-40% premium? I congratulate you for your optimism.

DNP, so basically your points are "might not be amazing news" (as with every other company), and has had a tricky track record for LTHs because of dilution in the previous placing?

You are aware that ENET had 78m shares outstanding at the start of 2023 and now 376m, right? So pretty massive dilution in the share you're ramping too. It had an RNS that was supposed to lift the SP, and it is falling ever since, and usually shares that don't await immediate news and have been in a downtrend for years on AIM do what? Drift further. So not the greatest news situation in the share you're ramping. Then you say "but pretty strong support at 1.20". Can you see maybe another share that also shows pretty damn strong support at 1.20 in the past days? Double standards all around.

Some pointing out the risk that it can also go badly, that's one thing. But posters seemingly excited about a share price dropping (which doesn't even look like it's doing so out of it's post Tuestday P&D 1.20-1.50 range)? Why? Great human beings all around.

It hasn't risen "in anticipation", it has risen on the back of news, the initial news after the drill.

So why act like the rise is pricing in a commercial discovery already, when market cap sits at the lower end of the 2022-2023 (until rig problems) range even now?

The exam question for HE1....have they hit the 'holy grail' and identified sufficient helium and hydrogen to sell it. You have seen the RNS and the interview....we know they have struck gold (Helium & Hydrogen), the bit we need confirmation on is the potential quantities re the commercial model.

FACT - The initial numbers identified are a lot higher and more frequent than any other test they have previously performed. The initial results also had dilution so factually they will be a lot higher when results come through.

FACT - if the detailed results align or are higher than the initial results released have they hit the holy grail - YES.

Fundamentals

Market - Helium and Hydrogen are both a scarce resource and the demand is huge, meaning the market value is SENSATIONAL. If they have struck gold, the market cap is tiny and will grow exponentially in a heartbeat.

Licence - Can they dig the area sourced...yes they have the licence.

Have they got the kit - yes they have an operational drill etc

Have they got the expertise and resources - yes they have a skilled team including Lorna obviously and agency resources.

Commercial model - Lots of options re JV's etc

Outstanding Point - Confirmation on the potential quantities - Helium and Hydrogen.

De-rampers that compare apples and pears are CLUELESS and time-wasters. Anyone that makes a comment without RELEVANT FACTS AND FUNDAMENTALS - IGNORE.

Do your own research and focus on the fundamentals.....eliminate the noise.

Good luck to all PI's.

BloodyRedBaron (30 Jan 2024 08:35)

Helium One is worth at least £100m, so do the maths from there

What a guy, doing a 180 degree turn from constructive to cynical after his alleged exit. Top guy...