Member Info for Sherston

Agreed mate....last target was €1.50 at G Sachs as I remember...they did say any +ive sp movement would be driven by asset disposal which has been the case. Eg the Polish disposal: a brief kick upwards followed by the inevitable decline. Worst performing share in my PF at the mo! Good luck

Goldman downgrades several European banks Goldman Sachs on Tuesday made several changes to its ratings for European banks, saying that with Basel III now defined, it can realistically assess banks' capital positions. Goldman estimates that some European banks reach capital above its 2012 Core Tier 1 (CT1) target ratios of 9.8%, atop 20% of current market cap. But for others, it sees "comparative capital restraint as a valuation and operating disadvantage." In that regard, Goldman downgraded Credit Agrigole SA , Natixis SA and Credito Valtellinese to sell from neutral. Santander SA , Allied Irish Bank PLC and KBC Group NV were downgraded to neutral from buy.

... market doubts remain http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/stress-tests-clear-aib-and-boi-but-european-market-doubts-remain-2269796.html

BoI, AIB to pass EU stress tests Related Officials 'at odds' over stress tests | 22/07/2010Bank of Ireland and AIB are both expected to pass the European Union's stress tests on the region's lenders, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Bank of Ireland's €2.9 billion fundraising last month gave the lender enough capital to meet the threshold set by EU regulators, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. AIB, the second-biggest lender by market value, passed because regulators included in their calculations the €7.4 billion the bank plans to raise by the end of the year, said another person who declined to be identified. The Committee of European Banking Supervisors, which is co-ordinating the tests, may yet alter its calculations for AIB, one of the people said. The lender is selling overseas assets, including its stakes in Poland's Bank Zachodni WBK SA and MandT Bank of the US, to raise the capital it needs. Chairman Dan O'Connor told the company's annual general meeting in May the bank may sell new stock to bolster

Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland, AIB and IL&P have all been downgraded by Canada's largest ratings agency on the back of a weakening of the government's position. The four banks mainly issue debt with a government guarantee, but the Toronto-based agency has also downgraded Ireland one notch to AA as its starts to cover the Irish economy full time. All four had their long-term ratings lowered to AA from AA (high). The decision impacts upon the banks' deposits and long-term debt issues, but not their short deposits or short-term debt. The agency said the ratings were now stable, meaning a further downgrade is not expected in the short term. Yesterday the agency published a note on Ireland as well, praising recent actions by the Government. Awarding the country an AA rating, the agency said: "The AA rating reflects Ireland's structural strengths -- an open economy, highly skilled workforce, flexible labour market and strong political institutions." Ireland had come up with an "exemplary policy response", said the agency. "However the stable trends could be changed to negative if the planned austerity measures for the 2011 budget are not fully implemented,'' said the agency. Meanwhile, the Irish banks are bracing themselves for this Friday's announcement of European stress test results. European regulators plan to detail three scenarios when they publish the results, according to a document by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS). Banks will publish their estimated Tier 1 capital ratios under a benchmark for 2011, an adverse scenario and a third test that includes "sovereign shock", according to CEBS. In the last scenario, banks will publish their estimated losses on sovereign debt held in their trading book as well as "additional impairment losses on the banking book" that they may suffer after a sovereign debt crisis, according to a document dated July 15. Meanwhile, M&T Bank, in which AIB has a major stake, said it had second-quarter earnings of $1.53 a share, beating analysts' expectations.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/cowen-repeats-pledge-on-money-for-aib-if-needed-2255994.html

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-may-sell-tranche-of-zachodni-to-boost-interest-2248473.html

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/firstround-bidding-on-zachodni-closing-monday-2232475.html

Saturday June 26 2010 POLAND'S financial watchdog chief will head to Ireland as early as next week to discuss the sale of Bank Zachodni WBK, the Polish unit of AIB. But a concerted effort favouring a domestic buyer could put Poland at odds with European Union regulators, a Reuters report said yesterday. The visit is seen by analysts as adding to efforts by Polish authorities anxious to strengthen the banking sector by reducing foreign control, which is around 70pc. Warsaw is concerned that foreign domination could expose its banking system and wider economy to grave risk if parent banks withdraw funding in a future financial crisis. Earlier this week, Polish treasury minister Alexander Grad threw his weight behind PKO BP's likely bid for AIB's 70pc stake in BZ WBK, worth some $3bn (€2.4bn). PKO is expected to face off against several large European banks, including UniCredit, Santander, BNP Paribas and Russia's Sberbank. An industry source said preliminary bids are due on Monday and binding offers are required in September. Irish Independent

Not surprised if he's a big shareholder!

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-faces-valuation-uncertainty-as-it-prepares-to-offload-foreign-assets-2229517.html

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/dohertys-resignation-paves-way-for-sale-of-mt-stake-2228081.html

Tuesday June 15 2010 Societe Generale SA and BNP Paribas SA are among banks considering a bid for Allied Irish Banks Plc’s stake in Bank Zachodni WBK SA of Poland, valued at about €2.45bn. Poland’s PKO Bank Polski SA and OAO Sberbank of Russia are also interested in making an offer for the 70pc stake. Indicative offers are due later this month and at least two private-equity firms are also interested in making bids, according to sources.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/cadogan-petroleums-board-and-its-would-be-predators-gear-up-for-a-tense-meeting-on-june-2/860.html I'm sure this link will have been posted previously but still worth a second look, especially ref valuations. Cheers

Maybe some +ive conclusion from the votes will be released tomorrow?

Allied Irish Banks said that so far in 2010, trading conditions have been "challenging, particularly in Ireland," where "[customer] demand for credit is weak." The net interest margin has been pressured by higher costs of funds, more interest payments after the company made two capital exchanges in the past year, and other factors, Allied Irish said. Trading has "improved in Great Britain and our capital-markets and Polish businesses are performing well," the company said. Results at M&T in the U.S. were strong in the first quarter, Allied Irish said. Overall, bad-debt charges in the first quarter "were at a rate similar to that" of full-year 2009, the bank said. At the end of April "overall loan and deposit volumes were both broadly unchanged" from December 2009, Allied Irish said. And the company said it would pay a dividend due on state-owned preference stock in shares, raising the government's stake to 18.61%. Withal, Allied Irish said it is carefully controlling costs

From FGN RNS: On 23 February 2010, the Company announced that it had received an approach regarding a possible offer for FuturaGene Plc from a third party. Since that date, discussions and due diligence have continued, and an offer of 90p cash per share is announced today.

That's what I call a recovery.... onwards to Citi's 750p!!!!

BROKER CALL: Is BBA ready to fly? 12 May, 2010 09:55:26 AM Apparently it is, according to Royal Bank of Scotland, which has raised its price target to 270p a share from 175p. Broker tells us: 'BBA's core businesses are US focused and cyclical. The macro outlook and early industry data appear to support the prospects for recovery. Following significant cuts within the group's cost base through the downturn, we believe there is scope to recover profits beyond historical levels, in the best case outcome.'

And another....