Lithium, a global slowdown, and IronRidge29 Aug 2019 10:26
There is lots of good information posted on this BB about the huge forecasted demand for lithium, driven primarily by the shift towards EV in the automotive industry. That said, the price of lithium has declined by around 40% from the lofty highs of January 2018 when the penny dropped that this resource (along with cobalt and nickel) was going to be in higher demand over the coming years. The FT posted a good piece recently highlighting the oversupply of lithium and subsidy cuts for EVs being the key drivers of the decline in price. I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts on two questions:
1) Despite the numerous articles discussing demand for lithium for various applications, are we at risk of a global oversupply in the long term?
2) Should the world economy fall back into a recession - as economists and commentators are increasingly murmuring - what effect would that have on lithium prices?
On the first point, I would imagine that cost of production and quality of grade will become two extremely important determinant factors when establishing mine feasibility - and our results to date bode well in that regard. On the second point, I genuinely have no idea. My instinct would say that a global slowdown would lead to a decreased EV demand and therefore a knock on effect downwards on lithium prices. But then I also struggle to see the price heading much lower from here (possibly wishful thinking!).
For IronRidge, a lithium bull market as seen in the latter half of 2017 at a time when we are two or three financial quarters away from a JORC estimate in Ghana would propel this SP to new highs (in my opinion). I'm holding here until £1.00 and fully believe that price to be realised in 2020.