RE: Reducing the load...22 Feb 2022 14:28
Hi copperpot, whilst I too am sad to see today's developments, I think it's worth noting that this is far from a full scale invasion of the Ukraine. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions (or People's Republics as they are sometimes known) have been under de facto Russian control since 2014. Combined they are home to approximately 3 million people, with 75-80% or so speaking Russian as their first language. They used to be more populous but many left following the takeover by the Russian backed separatists. As a result, the Russian tanks moving into these regions won't be met by much / any resistance (quite the contrary).
What this potentially does do, however, is provide pretext for a full-blown invasion. Personally, I don't think Putin will go down this route as back home in Russia, all out war with Ukraine is massively unpopular both amongst the elites and the general population. Putin is currently acting in this manner as his popularity back home is waning, and he wants to cement his position as leader for a further X years. He needs to reinforce the image he's built up over years as being the protector of the Russian state and the only man strong enough for the job. To enter into a full blooded conflict, given its unpopularity amongst the Russian people, would be totally contrary to his goal of boosting popularity at home. As such, I don't see it happening.
Conversely, we may well now be dealing with a totally irrational and egotistical maniac, in which case who knows what might happen.