Member Info for shandypants2

Yes, thought the SP had got silly when this went below 10p so topped up quite aggressively. Still c80% down on those purchases!

However, 10p is only a c£20m valuation so hopefully we should get back there soon.

In terms of funding i would not be surprised if a supportive shareholder and/or partner bought a % at a premium.

This recently happened to EAAS - Luce bought in at a lowish price but about 30% above the then SP.

You've almost repeated what i've just posted - my point re the Q3 numbers being slightly below previously announced is that surely a RNS will have been independently reviewed for accuracy. Surprised they got away with stating a figure, which i assumed would be quite conservative, and then not hit it.

Anyway, on the whole decent progress and overall a positive RNS

From Sit's earlier post - "As per the interims, the Energy Management division has revenue of £13.6 million and an adj EBITDA £4.4 million. A sale of this division of £30m represents quite an average multiple (whether of revenues or profits), and the statement suggests it is a price in excess of £30m."

To support this i am in a small company called Croma. Despite making a profit and paying a dividend the SP hasn't done well and until recently the valuation had slipped to c£7m.

It announced it was negotiating to sell off its security division. Whilst this was a large % of overall revenues the EBITDA was less than 50% of the companies total EBITDA. In 2022 EBITDA for this division was £0.8m but with staff costs rising this was reduced to £0.28m in H1 2023.

It was sold for £6.5m - so based on EBITDA is was between 8 and 11 times based on whether you use the 2022 or 2023 figures.

So i think a sell in this range, c10 x EBITDA, is both reasonable and realistic.

Hedge - good comparison with Hollywood Bowl.

Your figures are of course H1 only - for 2023 FY if we assume EBITDA is c£5m and for a fast growing company a 10x EBITDA is a decent yardstick then that's a £50m valuation, almost double the current SP.

Prescriptions numbers are a little down on their own estimate which was RNSed in late Sept when we were told Q3 was expected to exceed 28,400, however, the increase in price per prescription does offset this.

As long as the 2023 total prescription numbers are hit (min 100k ) then this represents solid growth and establishes accrufer as the go to alternative between the cheap salt based tablets and the expensive IV.

Good post Chapel. I too noticed the H2 start had been good, which seems to have gone a little under the radar.

Also for Boom we had very few sites this time last year so the Christmas period should have a significant impact YoY. Similarly there should only be 1 weekend impacted by train strikes which is also an improvement on last year.

For me this looks undervalued - revenues are growing quickly, it is cash generative and it is now using some of this cash to re-invest in new stores or buying up franchise sites. A small maiden profit would really be ideal now.

Seems a reasonable H1 - revenues down but costs have been well managed so profits are slightly up.

Borrowings are down considerably too, which is nice to see.

Really need the newly acquired brands to start performing better as this is where the highest margins are, however, hopefully this is the start of an upturn.

Certainly not all doom and gloom

Agreed, a premium is almost guaranteed with every takeover/part sell.

recent example is OTMP has recently been sold for 110p yet was c50p only a few weeks before.

In terms of valuations - just look at twitter. Musk thought a loss making app was worth c£40bn.

"It's winter, it is normal to have pneumonia/flu outbreaks." - is it?

The pictures from China show loads of young kids queueing to be entered into hospitals. Hardly a normal winter event.

Get real.

Yes, we did have a hot Sept, but only for 1 week at the beginning, not the whole month.

Also, the WFH on Friday is being used regularly now too.

Watch out for the train strike excuse in Dec although it will actually only impact 1 of the weekends in the lead up to xmas.

Maybe just a slight delay to the decent sized purchase by the Chairman. There have not been many BOD purchases over the last few years, even in the placings, so this seems a reasonable vote of confidence IMHO .

Time will tell

Never a good look sneaking results out after market close IMHO.

Definitely a good sign and a decent size purchase. We are currently c30% below the recent 8p placing so any decent news should see this climbing- the building blocks are now in place.

IMHO no chance the CEO will buy in the market. He doesn't need to as he gets so many free shares/lowly priced options just for staying in post. When he sold a % of free shares to pay the tax, rather than use a small proportion of his excessive salary , it speaks volume.

Our remuneration committee is so weak when they delayed paying his bonus by 3 or 6 months due to cashflow issues, and gave him an extra 25% to 'reward' his patience. Unbelievable.

I agree. The ex CEO knows the current trading position and appears to be in his 60s so 5m shares at 20p is still £1m - a nice retirement nest egg.

If he does sell even some of the shares as he owns 7% of the company this will clearly have a negative effect on the SP in the short term and the SP fell 20% yesterday so it is clearly vulnerable.

It also appears he was sacked so i suspect he is not leaving on good terms

The departing CEO has over 5.2m shares so that's a decent chunk if he is to dispose of them.

He has options too but they are worthless at these prices.

His basic salary was a very conservative £92k so this won't be a massive hit if he due say 6 months salary

I agree sitandwatch - a lot of due diligence will have been undertaken before an offer was even made as for example last year's full accounts are in the public domain.

EAAS would not have agreed to formal discussions with a preferred bidder without the bid being serious and 'agreed in principle'. The bid is over £30m , not £30m BTW.

Clearly there are a few further hurdles to jump over, but on the whole i am reasonably confident that we will get a favourable deal in the next few weeks.

Came on this board to see views on the SP etc. To read Synic's bizarre take on the world is an unexpected delight.

He comes on every 6 months or so, makes some random comments on the world and then disappears.

Farage for Tory leader - you heard it here first!

With the AGM about 3 weeks away, i suspect the BOD will want the sale to be sorted on or before that date.

As long as we hit >100k prescriptions for 2023 this will start to get noticed as that is significant growth and Accrufer will start being viewed across the industry as the mid point between the poorly absorbed salt based tablets and the expensive IV.

I think this would be a sensible acquisition for any of the larger IV companies.

Regarding AOP they now have 311m shares - about 40% of all shares.

Back in 2021 when the placing was at 30p they had c28m shares and i think about 12m of these were from the early placing at 150p.

Since then they took 57m at 6p in Dec 2022 and converted over 150m shares as part of the loan agreement at c6p.

They also took 21m shares at 8p at the recent placing.

So i'm pretty sure their average is now under 10p. A 20p offer might be of interest - still only c£150m for a major drug.

Interestingly the 2nd largest shareholder is Inventages/Nestle who have 56m shares. These were purchased at the initial placing at 150p and have never been increased (or decreased since) .

Very undervalued according to Share Magazine

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/three-quick-and-easy-ways-to-screen-the-market-for-value-stocks