Member Info for shandypants2

I suspect we will now get an update next week - be it re the sale and/or the trading update.

With another 6 months trading data available it maybe the price for the Mgmt division is being revised up to reflect further growth.

The Services division grew 87% last year so hopefully this momentum has continued too.

The SP seems to have stabilised a little recently, although there are still a few large late reported trades appearing daily.

I am surprised this is still valued at under £30m - seems a reasonably low value even without the sale.

Once the sale is confirmed i can't see how this can be valued at less than £45m c 12p a share.

So i can buy in Cambridge and Edinburgh from a couple of specialist stores - hardly national coverage is it

In terms of 2024/25 numbers clearly Boom will be the driver. If 12 months revenues increase by 20%, which feels quite conservative, that's c£33m rev. If the current EBITDA margin of 20% increases to 25% that's £8.25m. At 30% that's c£10m.

Add in maybe £6m from Escape Hunt and that shows the growth potential over the next 12 months.

Yep, good numbers, as expected. A little more detail would be nice, but this is only a trading update, the detail will arrive in March.

Escape Hunt , which is more mature shows where Boom should be in a year or so as sites become more established.

40% EBITDA for Escape is quite impressive. Boom was 19% for H1 so let's say 20% for the 12 months.

Based on this the Hunt EBITDA is £5.2m and Boom £5.5m, totally £10.7m.

I believe that is ahead of the £10m market guidance, and show how undervalued this is.

Boom should continue to increase revenues and EBITDA steadily through 2024 as some of the locations were only opened in 2023 and buying a few franchised sites seems will also increase revenues and seems a sensible approach.

Another pub/food chain, Mitchell and Butler, has just reported impressive numbers for the Christmas period. In fact i think every pub/food company that has reported in the last few weeks has traded well. Hopefully this will bode well for XPF

What will be the impact on existing contracts with the minimum wage increasing by c10% from April?

A big late reported trade yesterday of over 600k shares shows there are things going on behind the scenes. Currently HL let's me sell over 250k shares at well over the bid, but limits buys to 15k shares. Guessing there is a big buyer in the background

I think news re the sale of the Mgmt division could drop any day now, certainly in the next 2 weeks. As this offer is in excess of £30m and the current valuation for the whole of EAAS is c £29m there is much upside.

I've looked back on the details of the Utility Team purchase in 2021. The initial price (not including the performance add ons) was 7.1 c EBITDA. EBITDA is £4.4m as of 30/6/23 so that's £31m. I suspect this is the minimum we would accept upfront.

A total EAAS valuation of £46m is 12p - seems low to me but is c60% above the current SP

Feels like a 'leaky' placing at c10p drop.

With this morning's SP rise the company is now valued at c£30m . This was always my minimum expectation prior to sale confirmation based on the info we have , that the Energy Management division is being sold for in excess of £30m.

Based on this then the whole of EAAS must be valued somewhere between £45m and £60m, so a decent upside is still to be had.

Seems like there is a little profit taking before the next leg up but someone has paid 8p this morning, which is nice to see.

Thanks, i know you can buy it online, was wondering if there is any bricks and mortar retailer stocking it. Appears not

Not trying to be negative, and HVO is my largest holding (first buy c5p back in 2020) but at the current price a lot of good news is already factored in.

Valuation is c3 times revenues and assuming £12m EBITDA for 2023 about 15 times EBITDA. Both look fair value IMHO.

More than happy to be proved wrong!

Both RBG and Nightcap have announced good xmas trading, albeit a mixed 6 months as a whole.

I know these are not direct competitors for Boom Battle but shows that people were spending in the lead up to Christmas. Really expecting XPF to announce impressive numbers as many of these locations will have had their first 'proper' xmas trading period and we know corporate bookings have been significant.

Alas the SP doesn't seem to want to go anywhere

Good growth, albeit from a very low 2022 figures, however, more is needed.

For the 3 months just reported, which includes the Xmas period, gross profits were £272k. At H1 admin costs were £674k so assuming the same for Q3 that's still a loss.

Out of interest where can i buys Blackwoods gin? I've only see it on Amazon

Ticking up nicely now - over 7p to sell and 7.15 to buy. There was a late reported trade yesterday of 790k shares at 6.68. Based on the price it looks like a sale, however, for such a large amount maybe the MMs dropped the price to get some shares in. It was difficult to buy more than small quantities all day yesterday.

It appears things are back to normal today.

Current SP values the company at c£27m - yet we have a buyer for 1 division in excess of £30m.

Could be confirmed any day now

Just to add to that, included in the net liabilities ( i agree it is £12m not £15m btw) look at the trade receivables and trade payables - what is due in (e.g. unpaid invoices) and what is owed i.e tax and wages owed but not yet paid. This is £16m v £26m, so they need to find £10m pretty quickly.

It is possible that some of these trade payables will be money received in advanced e.g. at the beginning of a contract but not yet earned, but of course this money will be offset by increasing the cash amount .

Clearly having a negative net asset figure is a big red flag IMHO.

Someone bought 400k shares this PM - must clearly think this is massively undervalued

Good to see volumes and the SP tick up - still c 10% below the recent 8p placing price, so i can see 10p being reached in the next few weeks.

I was wondering what the market reaction would be if Q4 numbers continue to grow substantially, but fail to hit the recently downgraded 2023 full year numbers. The current company provided target is 100k to 130k (previously 125k to 160k).

After reaching c28k in Q3 total prescriptions are c54k for the 9 months. So if say Q4 is a 60% increase on Q3 that's 44.8k and c99k for the year.

Still very impressive growth, however, this would be below the minimum level set only a couple of months ago.

Clearly the CEO will tell us how wonderful he and his team are and the growth is 'impressive', however, i suspect the market may be less appreciative.

STX repeatedly fail to hit their own timescales and targets - the raise at 30p was meant to fund this to breakeven and yet we have 2 massively and discounted placings since

With the limited evidence available not sure how we can definitively say it is or is not a matched trade. However, the 2 transactions timings, 2 seconds apart would support this. Has the price increased? It hit 27p a few days ago and then slowly ticked down, now back up. If there was such a big buyer in the background over the last few days not sure why it would tick down.

Certainly some positive sentiment ATM, so all good IMHO.

The current spread has closed to almost nothing - i'm being quoted 6.87 to sell and 6.89 to buy . I suspect something is afoot.