Member Info for shandypants2

Very interesting buying from about 12pm today, especially a late reported 750k buy. Definitely something is brewing

I prefer to focus on the increase in EBITDA - after all revenue is vanity and profit is sanity etc.

The bottom line is growing significantly - obviously the village idiot avoids mentioning that.

Quite a few 250k and 500k purchases today. Bodes well

Here's an excerpt from the Nov RNS. Says discussions at an advanced stage and then further down CEO states it is a short period of exclusivity. Also notice it is a cash offer, so nice and clean, no shares etc. Also states money to be re-invested in the fast growing service division.

The Board engaged professional advisers to conduct a strategic review of the Division, following which the Board received a number of indicative cash offers which valued the Division in excess of £30 million. The Board has now entered into a period of exclusivity with one of the interested parties.

The Board intend to re-invest proceeds from any sale of the Division to ensure the Company and its subsidiaries ("Group") have the appropriate financial resources to capitalise on the substantial growth potential within its Energy Services division.

While discussions are at an advanced stage, there is no guarantee they will lead to a transaction or as to the final terms of any such transaction.

"As discussed at our Interim Results, we continue to position the Group to be able to win new larger mandates and optimise financing solutions. Following a number of inbound enquiries earlier in the year we have appointed an independent adviser and entered into a short period of exclusivity with one of the parties which has expressed interest in acquiring our Energy Management division. We will update shareholders on this process as appropriate."

It appears Babu is still buying. A 1.5m purchase and yet no movement in the share price !!!

Re-read the RNS re the sell. Says negotiations are at an advanced stage and also explains how/where funds will be re-invested. A massive positive for me. I did top up considerably in the low 5's , however, have bit the bullet and just bought another 100k shares. Someone earlier today bought 250k so they are clearly also quite confident.

Company is currently valued at £25m - just too low IMHO. 10p would value this at £38.7m which still seems low if we are ready to sell a division for over £30m

Also, let's address Mo's options.

Firstly, c7m options is just over 1% of the company's shares so it's not overly significant.

For me, whilst the options are quite generous i think there are 2 things driving this - potentially Mo was approached by another company and these options ensure his continued employment. Surely a win -win.

My other thought is that it is well known that CF's end game is a sale. If Mo wasn't happy that his employment might cease in say 2 years, then this is a nice sweetener for him. As per the RNS the options vest in full on a takeover.

So IMHO i see these options as a positive.

"The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."

Red Leg is a great brand and stocked extensively. Do the same search on Blackwoods and it shows the issues - not stocked by any retailer as far as i can see (online sales only), and that's our 2nd biggest brand

Price ticking up nicely - could there be a pre weekend rush as per last Friday?

Since the fundraise at 65p and the SP at c70p this has drifted steadily lower over the last few months. now less than 50p.

Things do seem to be steadily improving however we need to see a profit. Thus far losses are still quite high

Never mind, it was a nice timeframe to work to. It wasn't a case of linking it with the AGM, but merely using this date to announce something big. No doubt at the Q and As today almost every question will be on the potential sale so they will want to say something.

It's also not a case of holding back info, more a case of speeding it up, as for example drafting, reviewing and signing the final contract can take up to a month. So everything can be agreed but until the wet signatures are added, no deal formally exists.

Anyway, still think a deal is very likely - this side of Christmas is my next target

From the June RNS. MFT capital still have the same shareholding as per the company's website

On 3 November 2021, the Company announced the proposed acquisition of Boom Battle Bars from MFT Capital Ltd for a total consideration of £17.38 million, consisting of an initial cash consideration of £9.88 million and deferred consideration to be satisfied through the issue of up to 25,000,000 Consideration Shares payable subject to an earn-out based on the performance of Boom Battle Bars in the financial year ending 31 December 2022 meeting a combination of turnover and site roll-out targets. The number of Consideration Shares to be issued is subject to a sliding scale based on the extent to which the targets are met. Further details in relation to these targets are set out in the Acquisition Announcement.

The Company is pleased to announce that substantially all the conditions required to achieve the earn-out were achieved resulting in the issue of 23,924,420 Consideration Shares to MFT Capital, representing 95.7% of the maximum payout.

A really good day for HVO - a big new contract that expands on the testing we do, a good trading update and also a broker upgrade.

So without fail you get Stt/Sikh coming on here with his negativity. Just remember he said TLY is a better company - how is that going?

With the AGM tomorrow maybe we will also get a 7am RNS re the sell of the Management Division.

Potentially they may want to keep the two separate and announce it afterwards, especially if there are still a few loose ends to tie up.

Either way i think we are close.

Has been buying over the last few weeks and not just RBG too.

I suspect they believe there are a number of undervalued UK companies

https://www.agbi.com/articles/uae-investor-among-top-shareholders-in-uks-saga/

I always try to be reasonably conservative with valuations, but i do agree.

In terms of the current SP very surprised this hasn't pushed up above 7p in anticipation of a deal being completed.

As 7.8p is a total valuation of £30m and we have an offer in excess of £30m for a proportion of the business the £30m level seems an obvious floor, even if the deal doesn't materialise.

Also, from the Nov RNS the deal with LUCE essentially ensures the expensive loan can definitely be repaid next summer and this uncertainty has been depressing the share price. I thought this news might have a more significant re-rate.

Yes 3 BOD purchases in the last few months has to be a positive sign. I suspect Christmas bookings are positive, and for Boom in particular many of these venues are having their 1st xmas, so the revenue YoY increase should be substantial

Just as a guide, we have 387m shares so 10p = £38.7m valuation. £30m is 7.8p, £35m is 9p, £40m 10.3, £45m is 11.6 and £50m is just under 13p.

Based on what we know under 8p seems a gift.

After an impressive 25% rise on Friday based on a pretty standard deal it is clear that many are thinking this was merely to lay the foundations for the sell of the energy management division.

We already know we are in exclusive discussions and i have previously said i suspect they will want to announce this on or before the AGM on Thursday.

The deal is supposedly in excess of £30m.

Based on 30/6/23 12 month EBITDA the management division is c double the size of the remaining business (i appreciate this is only one measurement and the remaining business is growing at a significant rate, but let's keep it simple).

So if we sell 2/3 of the business for the minimum £30m that values the whole business at c£45m.

£45m is c 12p per share.

I'm not saying we will hit 12p immediately, but i'd be very surprised if 10p isn't reached the moment the RNS drops.

Don't forget the broker value (before a sell was announced) was 13p so this valuation is not excessive IMHO.

£10m - are you sure. They only did an adjusted EBITDA of £2.3m in H1.

Are you quoting the pre IFRS number, which is always higher? For H1 this was c£5m.

IMHO the pre IFRS is always a bit misleading so i tend to ignore.