Member Info for shandypants2

agreed - recession proof, green and returns c 3times top savings accounts. What's not to like

On reflection HT you are 100% right. I think new strategy is to focus on quality not quantity so 1,000 is a stupid number - we just had a RNS for 6!
We current have 50 aquarium leads - so even if 50% purchase say 4 each that's 'only' 100.

Breakeven end of this year with c350 and then may 500 to 600 next year may be more realistic.

Will still be a profitable 2020 regardless of numbers IMHO

FinnCap has £15.8m rev and £2m PBT for 2020 and clearly this is not priced into current share price.

For 2019 rev was ST 11m, Roots 1.3, C+L 0.2 and Prolong 0.3

For 2020 they have ST 12.3, Roots 2.2, C+L 0.4 and Prolong 0.9.
They have 0 for Growlase and also new product but have assumed £0.4m costs for new product.

Personally I think ST should be at least 13m. This is based on extra 9 months at Boots and better DTC in US and Aust. Additionally DTC was up 22% last year. As H1 was a disaster last year that is a great achievement so this should produce better numbers in H1 this year.
However, I think Roots may disappoint slightly so FinnCap numbers might be a little high for this - therefore overall i'll go for £16m with PBT £2.1 - a 50% increase.

H1 will be interesting.
Last year it was only £3.9m (2018 was £4.2). I think we should be targeting 35% rev in H1 (was only 30% in 2019 but 39% previous year when H2 was poor due to SD issues). On £16m that's £5.6m.
With improved DTC and Boots rev (was 0 last year) I'm hoping for £6m.

Let's see in January where we stand - hopefully Nov AGM statement will give us an update on trading and also new product.

Re-read both documents and on the whole I'm reasonably positive.

For 2019 PBT of £1.4m is reasonable and just about in line with guidance so the previous year issues (predominantly caused by SD exclusivity issues) are long gone.
Good to see admin and wages in line with 2018 numbers so new CEO has got costs under control (is he only part time? His pay was 'only' c£50k). Little surprised marketing/advertising was so high but assume this was to support Boots and also to increase DTC footprint. Both of which were achieved. Hopefully this can be reduced in 2020 or spent elsewhere e.g. on Prolong, Roots and ST overseas.
Still a little worried about deadlines slipping e.g. we were told in Jan that Prolong marketing had re-commenced but report states it was only last 3 months of YE (so April to June). Also no mention of Prolong being sold in UK despite website being live for 3 or so months, so this clearly isn't being pushed at all and doesn't appear it will be anytime soon.

2020 figures look very achievable. 9 extra months of ST in Boots and to a lesser extent Asda will increase rev by a min of £1m and potentially £2m (£40 a week from only 1000 stores for 36 weeks = c£1.5m).
Australia and US ST rev should increase after 2 years of decline - Aust rev was £327k yet this includes C+L and Prolong so ST was minimal. in 2017 Aust rev was £723k and most of this was ST (albeit was sold in stores too). I think DTC in Aust should be a min of £250k and over £500k in US. This seems to have picked up lately and Wonder Serum is being pushed on both now.
Prolong 6,000 unit order is great news. Even at 50% discount that will be min £600k to IDP.

For 2021 hopefully Prolong and the new product will drive revenues further.

For a £11m market cap I think there is 50% upside minimum in next 12 months. 120p a share would be c 8 p/e and this for a company growing 20% each year.

why is it overdone? LSAI need annual revenues of over £3m to breakeven and we are not even at half that figure yet.

How many more placings will this company need before then?

agree, decent numbers but PAT only slightly up on this time last year and current value of company is still high on a P/E basis.

Move to corporate clients is bearing fruit though so would expect H2 profits to be higher though so £1 min for me if not £1.20 short term

just doing some number crunching too based on H1 numbers.

IMMO has said 410 headsets will be breakeven so based on current £320 per week average revenue that equates to £6.5m rev p.a. Admin seems to be c£5m a year based on H1 numbers.

Not sure how upfront headset costs is accounted for as in H1 rev was £1.3 but cost of sales was £1.15m so gross profit only c125k which is much less than I was expecting.

However, based on IMMOs own breakeven of £6.5m this could be done with less headsets as partnership model produces higher rev. I think I've heard aquariums are producing c£500 a week and we have been told there are 50 potential orders ALL from aquariums.
So we know have 295 headsets (with 6 announced yesterday) so I reckon 350 may be sufficient to hit the breakeven assuming all new ones are partnership.

With 1,000 by end of 2020 revenue could be nearer £20m!

I do think there is demand for the product - people just don't know it exists.

With a limited budget CPT don't seem to have any PR/marketing spend.

https://www.fertilityshow.co.uk/london?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIhIPwv4zu5AIVjLTtCh0uhA6HEAAYAyAAEgKjePD_BwE

There is a fertility show in London at the beginning of Nov (only 1 month away). If MyLotus doesn't have a stand we might as well give up as surely this is exactly where the company should be.

How many IVF clinics are there in the UK? Each should be pushing MyLotus before alternative expensive and low success rate treatments are undertaken

Suratosa - are you happy with this company's progress?

For the last 3 years this company is loss making and base don the numbers just published will continue to be for maybe the next 2 years.

but sill significantly loss making, hence yet another placing at a big discount.

Admin expenses up to £1.4m so LSAI need revenues of c£3m just to breakeven so £100k a month is just not good enough.

Can't see how this can be worth more than c£5m based on figures out today so could go down further IMHO

yep agree - expecting H2 rev to be over £2m based on 0.9m in only 2 months (albeit during peak holiday season).

Aquariums seem a great fit and are generating more than the average weekly £380 a week so the more of these that sign up the higher the average weekly revenue per headset.

The Dubai one is massive and very popular (at the centre of the shopping mail with massive footfall) - reckon these 4 could be doubled quite quickly when they take off.

UK zoos still under utilising this - not in say Chester and London to my knowledge

yes NAV per share now 42p and share price is currently 33p. Eventually common sense will prevail

2020 - revenue £15.8m - PBT of £2m
2021 - revenue £17.9m - PBT £2.4m

Just read this in more detail.
Current sales are approx.
ST £11m
C+L 0.2
Roots 1.3
Prolong 0.3

2020 figures have extra £0.4m for new product launch and marketing costs but no revenue. Similarly no revenue for Growlase which is also meant to be pushed in 2020. In relation to ST push into US and Canada FinnCap state "our forecasts do not fully reflect this potential opportunity".

So overall it appears 2020 forecasts are quite conservative.

FinnCap analysis just out.

2020 - revenue £15.8m - PBT of £2m
2021 - revenue £17.9m - PBT £2.4m

Previous 2020 was £15.4 and £2.4 PBT - revenue up but profit adjusted due to new product launch

Even so a £2m profit should have company nearer to £20m valuation rather than current £11 to £12m surely

Flashy love the maths but that weekend was peak season and I think heavily marketed and also included promotions.
I would maybe use this weekend as a weekly figure for the year - so £122k x50 = £6.1m p.a. Still impressive.
Also DTC margin is impressive and shows how they can regularly offer promotions via this channel

yes agree, momentum building nicely. Board share purchases underpin what looks like a healthy order book.

Bravedog - is Board are trying to keep shire price down why have a maiden divi and share buy back - both of which should give the share price a boost?

Not saying you are 100% wrong, just seems a strange approach

I remember KC mentioning that he felt ST was still in its early stages of brand development, I assume because it is 90% UK based so geographical expansion would seem to be the logical next step.

Agree re Enbright - although we have never been told (to my knowledge!) . Stevie K is sold via DTC. Seems to have a small presence in Australia and has c1k facebook followers. Presume income is peanuts but it has been launched.

2021 - Prolong is my big revenue hope. Get this going across multi regions and this could do £1m plus rev p.a and c£500k profit without too much effort

agreed, just speculating what the new product might be.

I'd hope it is delayed. For 2020 they already have a lot on their plates and these should drive revenues. A few are
1) maintaining momentum at Boots (and to lesser extent SD and Asda) for ST
2) rollout Wonder Serum to all retailers (when Boots exclusivity ends) and Moisture Mousse too (when SD exclusivity ends)
3) Get Protect & Glow in all retailers for summer season (DTC only I think)
4) New Roots product extensions (curly hair and platinum shampoos recently added etc
5) Get retail deals for ST in Australia and US
6) Increase C+L geographical coverage - SA was previously mentioned. Maybe US is imminent too
7) Get Prolong in UK off the ground and increase marketing in US and Australia
8) Get Growlase sales going
9) Body Glow recently added to B&M, probably as a trial. Get this in more stores and other retailers etc
10) Enbright in Asia and Stevie K cosmetics - are we selling these? Maybe relaunch these rather than focus on new products

So that's 10 areas just off the top of my head!

CCC, Angina is right - there is an attractive share options scheme for the Board - you have to have shares available to issue to meet these rewards. The share buy back merely puts the shares into Treasury whereby they can be re-allocated to Board members as per the bonus scheme.
The Board is being handsomely rewarded for not doing a great deal.

The current cash pile is more than sufficient to get to 55k bpd target - who knows for 75k, the costs haven't been confirmed, to my knowledge.

Future dividend commitments are only $25m p.a - this year included a special divi