Member Info for shandypants2

https://www.skinnytan.co.uk/collections/new-chocolate-range-out-now

keeps the momentum going as we near the end of H1. Hopefully the H1 numbers , usually published in 2nd week of Jan, will show steady progress and a reasonable profit - not expecting a massive profit as H2 is always heavily weighted but IDP made £400k loss H1 last year and I think broke even the year before. Even a modest profit of £500k would be an excellent return

AT - is this taken from the interview?
I see it slightly differently
NXP001 - water tight payment due , has been delayed but it will happen
NXP002 - in detailed talks with Japanese company plus other - news in Q1
NXP004 - new drug, looks promising
Ebers - progress being made

Personally the Q1 bit will see some move on in the short term but I didn't hear anything that didn't tell me progress is being made

smalltrader - in answer to your question it depends on the size of the deal.

FDA approval was a massive hurdle and the full coverage for all iron deficiencies is a big plus. This is wider than Europe, I think.
US is the biggest market for this product, worth over £1b per year, so if STX can get 10% of that it's massive.
Hence the uplift when FDA approval was granted.

I'm expecting both a decent upfront payment and ongoing royalties from a US deal.
If this upfront payment is say £50m (FinnCap has stated it could be anywhere up to £100m) then this validates the product IMHO and I don't think this is in the price.
The size of the upfront payment and royalty % also shows that a company is committed and realise the full potential of Ferracru. I think that will be massive.
Also don't forget a Chinese deal is in the pipeline too.
Re the Swiss payment - I haven't checked, but think that was for a specific form of anaemia only so the market will be smaller and the payment reflects this.

I agree - drilling plus other work completed Q1, increase in overall value of mine and also indicated from inferred plus maybe the bonus of some copper (which I think is main objective of new drill but is being downplayed as even if no significant copper it will still be of value).
Once all sorted LR doesn't want to mine so might as well sell to highest bidder

Muz - you may be right that rev was slightly lower than 43% so wanted to go with the WOW figure, however, it could be as simple as not having all revenues available yet. Monday close (so midnight for DTC) was only 2 days ago and also it might be they need to take into account returns (i think IDP offer a money back guarantee).

Previously IDP has been criticised for valuing its DTC customers so I think this RNS is partly to show that progress in H1 is continuing and also to show that DTC channel is producing repeat custom (54% over black Friday) whilst also getting new customers in too.

Clearly revenue is not profit so the H1 numbers - probably only 5 weeks away until this RNS drops, will show that. Remember IDP lost £400k in H1 last year (and made £1.8m in H2) so even a modest profit of say £500k from £5m rev is still a substantial improvement on last year and would also massively de-risk the 2020 profit target of £2m.

ok, things are taking a bit longer than we'd hope in this RNS. Drill has been successful and METS work has now been completed and will be available in Q4, as per previously announced - as this is produced by an independent company EUZ has no control over the actual timings.
As i stated previously the recently announced drill work was always going into Q1 2020 so I personally don't think we will get any concrete info re potential sale etc until this work has been completed.
This work is to increase and value of the asset and also the amount indicated, from inferred. Until this is completed how can we put a definitive value on Toral - other than stating it is more than the previously announced $110m figure.
I'm happy to wait

Great news, and good that the CEO is keeping shareholders informed of progress, something that has been lacking over the last 18 months or so.
The 43% increase over Black Friday weekend (so Friday to Monday) is on top of the 38% 4 month revenue increase we already know about so the H1 2020 numbers in January should hopefully be c40% up on last year - hardly all doom and gloom as the share price performance would suggest.

I've heard (3rd hand from someone who 'counts' items in stock to see how many have been sold) that this weekend in UK DTC the revenue could be as high as £200k - not bad for a 4 day off peak period.

Hopefully ST choc range will keep the momentum going through December, plus also C+L range in Australia which should also do well after selling out last year.

i'll be delighted with 7p a share!

Link up with Croda could produced massive returns but these things do take time

Hit the shelves last week in SD I think and now online too.
Hopefully a decent earner on the run up to xmas - also listened to KC interview with Proactiveinvestor again and he mentioned that limited addition ranges will be a regular feature with SD going forward, so this is not a one-off.
https://www.superdrug.com/Skinny-Tan/Skinny-Tan-Choc-Self-Tan-Whip-Milk-Chocolate-150ml/p/787532

https://www.superdrug.com/New-In/c/new
On the new page - top right.

Not on IDP DTC yet - assume the black Friday/Monday promotion has delayed this slightly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-50648325

OPTI need to be right in this space. Statins are expensive and have limited effectiveness yet they are still the go to for cholesterol reduction. A healthy, cheaper alternative is required - step forward OPTI... please

Cotton no 1 to 4 is a 300% uplift

1m to 2m = 100% increase
1 to 3m is a 200% increase so
1 to 4m (i.e a 3m uplift) is a 300% increase

sorry NDA will need to be RNSed - too many acronyms !!

The data room is encouraging IMHO and hopefully METS will be this week and also positive.
With additional drilling and work scheduled for Q1 2020 whilst all positive and will hopefully increase value of asset it does maybe mean potential sale is a few months off.
Perhaps that has contributed to the share price fall as investors have moved away to focus on other short term movers before returning in the New Year.
I'm hoping excellent METS (and all looking good there) will ruin their strategy.

If we do sign a NDA I presume this will need to be NDAed

Cionn - SKIN is expanding and rapidly. Rev should be over £1m this year and £4m next year - that's a 300% increase.

Yes, money is tight and has to be carefully managed but they have cash and Rhinocloud has 80% margins so a capital raise is not required unless there is an acquisition etc. CEO and Board have loads of shares so a placing would adversely impact them too. There are also loads of old warrants floating around so these will raise money for the company too if/when taken up. Number of shares is not overly important IMHO it's the market value.

Why do you think they need a raise?

exactly

the product is great, however, the marketing to date has been terrible. New CEO seems to be exactly what the company needs at this point in time.
However, the big issue is where will a marketing budget come from? I'm sure new CEO will be coming up with a cost effective marketing plan but it will still need money.
With less than £100k rev for H1 I think most of last placing money will have already been spent.
I reckon we will get a positive RNS soon and then a placing soon after.

we are not R & D a the moment - Ferracru has completed all clinical trials and is being sold in Europe.
FDA approval has been given - for full coverage for all iron deficiencies - so US deal should be better than European equivalent and US is a bigger market. STX is not an IMM type company - it is miles ahead.
CEO has stated cash positive until Q3 2020 and has also stated US deal is wanted ASAP as every day delay is a day's lost revenue.
Only debate re US deal is how much STX will get paid in royalties, upfront and ongoing.That is what is being discussed and these discussions should hopefully be finalised soon - as previous guidance was Q4 , which we are in. STX has a strong hand and are clearly negotiating hard. FinnCap has stated upfront payment could potentially be as high as £100m.
Maybe this will get pushed into early 2020 but to state 6 months is pure guess work - STX has stated Q4 and have not provided any further guidance so let's stick to the facts.

We also have a potential Chinese deal that could drop too

Superdrug promotions appears to have been a success - the online offering has sold out
https://www.superdrug.com/Skinny-Tan/Skinny-Tan-Moisture-Magic-Self-Tanning-Kit/p/786546

Big push on Black Friday for DTC in US - $10 offers etc. Hopefully this was a success, especially as DTC in US and US was minimal in the last year

Flashy selling DTC has much higher margins as no retailer involved, hence discounts can be higher.

I reckon retails will require 100% mark up on all items they sell so, for example, may buy a bottle of ST for £10 and sell at £20 (£8 and £16 excluding VAT). If that bottle costs IDP £4 it's still a decent profit margin (100%). If same bottle is sold via DTC for same price as retailer then 100% profit margin suddenly becomes 300%.
Also money received straight away, no 3 month lag.
IDP is one of the few companies i know that has both a success DTC and retail process. Most seem to be one or the other.
I think IDP has been defined by its retail model and priced accordingly and that is not the case.
Someone gave the example of SOS - smaller revenues and no profit yet much higher valuation due to their DTC model.

your comment re possible placing - surely you don't think your comment is a positive??

Clearly you are trying to put doubt in a few people's minds. STX has repeatedly stated funded until Q3 next year