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CEO still in China but is main interviewee on today's daily podcast.
Stated he was happy with deal and confirmed upfront and milestone payments totalling $63m is in addition to royalty payments.

No date on US but did say China and US negotiations were undertaken in parallel so maybe not too far off.

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heard a rumour that this might drop tomorrow (personally still think next week is more likely).

Anything above £5m rev (was £3.9 last year and £4.2 year before) would show steady progress although I'm hoping for £5.2m plus.
Hoping for profit c£500k although anything over £250k is ok considering they lost £422k last year and lost £30k year before.

Decent H1 numbers will de-risk overall 2020 targets (£15.8m rev, £2m PBT) a bit although this share will always be H2 weighted so not expecting any changes to forecasts etc.

Any news on new product would be good too, although expect we may need to wait until Feb for that.

Cotton - agree

last year it was 21st Jan so am expecting it in the next week or two.

Not expecting anything great, but happy to be surprised

Shield Therapeutics (STX): Corp China licence - $62.8m bio-dollar deal Shield Therapeutics announced that it has licensed Ferracru/Accrufer to Beijing Aosaikang Pharmaceutical Co (ASK Pharm) in China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan – in line with the company’s earlier comment that it was seeking to partner in the US and China around the year end. Shield will receive an $11.4m upfront payment with up to $51.4m in future development and sales milestones and tiered double-digit royalties. This is a good deal, considering that ASK has to fund a clinical trial in China. It removes any vestiges of financing risk (2020 year-end cash of c.£7.5m) and with the prospect of a much larger US licence deal, given that Feraccru/Accrufer is approved by the FDA, there is substantial upside to the current share price in our opinion. Shield implied discussions for US rights to Feraccru/Accrufer are ongoing, with the priority being to secure a highly motivated partner on attractive commercial terms rather than completing the process to a particular deadline, which we fully endorse. We reiterate 350p target.

might take a day or so for this deal to sink in - also this PM when US market opens as this will help 'price' an US equivalent deal - I reckon upfront payment could be 2 or 3 times this and FDA approval of course already in bag, so based on the $22.8m for China I can't see it being less than $50m for US - IMHO.

Personally on back of today's deal I think this should steadily rise to £2 in next few days

welcome Tom - with US deal this could see £2.50.

Incidentally the only reason there isn't already Chinese regulatory approval is because the existing phase 3 trial did not have sufficient ethnic mix to satisfy the Chinese process. Assume the same trial will be repeated with Chinese patients and the results should be a formality

yes well done indeed. If we can get essentially over $22m upfront from China (2nd payment when reg approval given0 then what will US deal be - 2 or 3 times the size minimum

yep Boon - I missed KC as CEO off the positive list. Has kept costs under control and has managed cash and stock well, something HC struggled to do.
He is a safe pair of hands and being UK based (HC was Australia) must help as our biggest 2 clients are both UK.

His pay (£56k last year) seems very low, although this was pro rata as he took over October ish, and I can't see any share option incentive schemes listed in the accounts.

I would have no issue if they introduced some as long as they were reasonably demanding.

based on £11k rev in H1 I reckon c 10k restaurants required to generate a profit.

Whilst FDA approval is key - I also see this being 2 stage. Should be a tick up on submission (as this is quite a longwinded process) and then the main one when (if?) FDA approval is given. The gap between the two could be 6 months or more.

Obviously lets get the phase 3 trial sorted first!!

1p tick down for last few days - can see this continuing until news drops, or at least a holding RNS

if BTC can breach $8,000 and stay there this could get interesting - currently $7,850

was hoping we'd seen the back of the 60s but still maybe a bit of a overhang from HC's sell off.

Anyway, things that make me positive re IDP (in no order)
- profit making company with no debt
- a business that is easy to understand and you can actually use the products
- Board on conservative salaries with no silly bonuses and share options
- Profit for 2020 expected to be over 50% higher than 2019
- H1 progress - 38% rev increase in first 4 months
- H1 2019 IDP lost £422k so even a conservative H1 profit will be significant improvement
- all 4 main brands steadily growing and gross margins improving
- DTC and retail mix so less reliant on big retailers and a slow down on the high street
- new product to be launched in Q1 2020 - this could be transformational and not priced in
- legacy issues with HC now removed
- current valuation of c10 PE very conservative and 2020 numbers not priced in

I think H1 numbers will drop next week and hopefully this will be the start of some decent 2020 progress.
Good luck to all LTH

decent buying today including a 50k purchase of shares at 25p. A bit surprised bid/ask hasn't been increased.

Can't see this being below 30p once phase 3 trial is formally announced as a success and then a slow increase towards FDA approval (50p ??)

agreed Con, data is being analysed independently so CEO will have no price sensitive info.

10 weeks from 7th Nov, so even if there is a small delay due to xmas period this will drop in Jan. Could be next week!!

they did a placing at the same time as the acquisition at 5.6p. I think Cathal bought all his shares at this price (although he was already a non exec of Venn so could have already held a few)

recommences - not recompenses!!!

the share price is what it is - i just think we need to start getting some positivity back on this board and obviously LR could assist this process.
A timeline of what will/should happen in the next 3 months would help e.g drilling recompenses on x and due to finish on y. Updated JORC, next set of METS etc.
With a £3m market cap this could get to say £10m (based on ARS comparision) quite quickly.

The newsflow should be frequent and positive in next few months. If coupled with some decent promotion - videos, interviews etc then 2020 should be a good year.

We are all frustrated