Member Info for shandypants2

no, I've not sold and am nursing a reasonable paper loss now so will give it a year or so and see progress.

HOWEVER, a learning for me is to not trust a CEO as much as I have previously with GB. Only 2 weeks ago I was defending him based on his statement that cash position was healthy. At that point in time he must have known a placing was required (yes, he couldn't say it but he didn't have to make the cash statement too).
Similarly burning over £500k cash in 3 months is not good business practice for a small firm, albeit one that is growing rapidly.
When GB does well I'm happy to praise, similarly when the opposite is true I think he deserves some criticism.
I think he has overly ramped things recently and the placing could have been done at a higher price if not leaked to those in the know

???? I admire your positivity

why 4p? No proven strategy, restaurant sign up process completely changed, very low revenues and terrible RNSs - lied to re strategy and money and we are now being told that CEO actually joined last week.

I'm struggling to see any positives

I'm purely speculating but Cathal did mention something about any monetisation of Flu-v or Zika vaccines will be distributed to existing HVO shareholders if Seek group find buyers in the future.

I did wonder how that would be possible once the companies merge. Also surely all assets (and liabilities) should be shared across all shareholders going forward

yes Long, effectively paying 4.75p per ORPH share via HVO purchase at the moment.

Also, could be a counter offer - unlikely but who knows

maybe not - now I've read the RNS properly supposedly the placebo used produced statistically significant results and that might be the way forward for FUM as a medical device rather than via the drug route

FUMs ED phase 3 study - failed. Good news for Prolong as still no medically proven alternatives (I think!!)

Futura Medical plc (AIM: FUM) (the "Company"), a pharmaceutical company developing a portfolio of innovative products based on its proprietary, transdermal DermaSys® drug delivery technology and currently focused on sexual health and pain, announces its top line results from the European Phase 3 study, "FM57" of lead product, MED2005 for the treatment of erectile dysfunction ("ED).

So James are you happy? SP walked down from 1.8 to c1.5p before placing (almost 20%).

We also find out that cash has dropped from over £1m on 30/6 to £477k 3 months later - a period when I think over £100k in warrants were exercised. Similarly Q3 revenues weren't great, growth has slowed, and costs have increased (probably due to new lab costs). New lab came on line 2 months late - but this was never formally announced.

Running a company well is partly managing cash too. Most of these big companies will have standard 90 day payment terms - so cashflow is key. Only last month GB told us cash wasn't an issue when he paid a £20k bill in shares - did he lie or did he not know the cash burn? Either way it's poor.

Revenue growth is clearly important but when is breakeven and what is profit target for 2020? If you announce a revenue target you MUST surely also be able to estimate profit at the same time.

I have a big holding here and do like what the company are doing but I have lost a bit of respect for GB this week. Hopefully he can win it back.

Previously writing on Integumen (SKIN), I noted the shares having gone on to more than 2.50p before falling back to a then 1.80p, concluding attempted discounted fundraising ahoy, again? Certainly, at this current juncture for me still avoid / sell. Today “Placing/Subscription to raise £1.368m”…

This, the company “is pleased to announce… at 1.5 pence per share”. It notes this “a discount of approximately 4 per cent” but I note last month the shares 1.9p+, including heading towards this level on the back of an RNS Reach; “non-regulatory news releases such as marketing messages, corporate and product information” – and have stated the question to ask on such to be ‘Is there a financial reason for such an announcement to now be made?’.

Here, half-year results had shown an increased continuing operations loss of £0.9 million, cash of £1.1 million and net current assets of just £0.6 million. The company emphasises the new “funding to maintain current pace of growth into 2020” but then also includes “nine months ended 30 September 2019… EBITDA loss of £0.668 million, a reduction of £0.134 million on the comparative period in 2018… Cash balances of £0.477 million”. I guess being a going concern is necessary to maintain a pace of growth!

CEO Gerard Brandon emphasises “the company guided revenues of £1 million in 2019 and four times that for 2020 to £4 million… profitability in sight… With the visibility we have of sales into next year, 2020 is already looking to be a good year for Integumen”. However, with a prospective market cap of comfortably above £16 million, I’d just monitor to see how good the bottom-line progress is – and at this juncture still avoid / sell.

All quite positive IMHO

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/908833/hvivo-merger-with-open-orphan--gives-it-the-chance-to-achieve-profitability--908833.html

very positive interview (and progress so far has been positive share price could double over next year).

Already hold ORPH so have bought some HVO today - at 2.47 ORPH per share it's better value for money!!!

James - I don't mind GB ramping , in fact I would expect the CEO to do so, however, this shouldn't be in a RNS. Don't issue a RNS with £4m 2020 guidance (300%) uplift and then talk about £10m for the same time period a few weeks later in another RNS.
Similarly this should not be repeated without any research by the broker, TP, even though clearly they are paid by SKIN.
Surely their job is to do some number crunching and industry comparisons etc - what's a fair price for the share etc.
Instead they issue a 'research note' that reads just like the RNS without any added value.
I like GB and invested based on his vision and passion, however, 2020 is a big year for SKIN, I will reserve judgement.
I do think he has a big contract up his sleeve which I'm hoping will drop soon but even if it does I can't see us getting back to 2p (so c £20m valuation) any time soon. I hope I'm wrong

I believe the appeal is only regarding the last few years of the patent so something like 2032 v 2037 (might have the dates wrong - off the top of my head).
I'm told appeals are made as standard and are often to get the full explanation for the decision - i.e. to inform future decisions rather than impact the immediate one.

Also, if this was a concern the deal could be structured in such a way as to mitigate against any unforeseen circumstances e.g. £30m upfront with another £20m based on unsuccessful patent appeal and Royalties say 35% rising to 40% based on the same. I think both sides will want to bring this to market asap so will not delay once an agreement is close.

When mentioned CEO always seems very laid back about the appeal and makes out it's just standard process.

11th and 29th Jan RNSs this year. 11th was to inform of a delay payment so may have to wait until end of Jan for numbers.

A bit earlier would be nice

Justin Waite effect also today - he's just bought in

TP broker notes - notice these are really poor for SKIN. Seem to just rewrite the RNS with no actual research. Also include GBs ramping which he likes to put in the RNSs (thought these were meant to be factual e.g. how many £500k contracts have we signed to date when 9 month rev is £591K ?? ).

No added value IMHO

Now less than 4 weeks until H1 end, so I've just re-read last year's Feb H1 statement.
Loss of £422k this time last year (previous year loss of £30k) shows how H2 weighted IDPs.

Although rev was down (3.9m from 4.2m) as gross margin improved gross profit was flat, as where wages and admin costs (c£1.5m both years). Big difference was marketing spend increases from £722k to almost £1.1m. This increase accounted for the £400k loss - and during a period when IDP experienced facebook/google advertising issues.

For 2020 a 35% increase (hopefully quite conservative) will produce £5.2m rev and with 60% gross margin (again hopefully quite conservative) that's £3.1m gross profit. Less £1.5m admin and wages (KC has done well to keep these in check to date) that leaves £1.6m surplus. So actual profit will depend on marketing spend. If same as last year (£1.1m) that's £500k profit - so £900k better than this time last year.
If marketing has increased (as it has done in last 2 half periods) then profit will be lower.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised at a small increase, however, anything more than say £200k extra will be a slight concern IMHO.
With a larger DTC base now and hopefully better management and focus on marketing spend (and I think KC is better equipped to achieve this this than HC) this will be a key indicator when H1 results are announced IMHO.
Although, arguably if we hit £500k profit maybe the marketing spend becomes less important.

When will news drop?

Thanksgiving is now firmly out of the way so hopefully the Q4 guidance will still hold. If it rolls into next year by a few weeks not overly concerned - must be quite close, else STX would have to update market

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/10/integumen-continues-to-build-strong.html

to counter that - here is the article from Oct. The last line from GB - if we needed cash why would we be hiring!!
What's changed in a matter of weeks??

Yes growth is positive and clearly extra funds will help - but why shoot down people for pointing this out 6 weeks ago.

yes looking more promising - decent buy volumes, on the ASK too, and people haven't been selling into this.

Chris - missing you on the SKIN board!!