Member Info for shandypants2

Just re-reading RNS from early Nov and the results due in approximately 10 weeks - so c mid Jan.

This approximation will have some contingency built in - maybe a week, possibly two.
Whilst unlikely results could come out before year end. I certainly don't think it will take the whole 10 weeks as CEO mentioned in an interview that the results can be processed for each patient the moment the scan is completed i.e don't need to wait for all 80 to be completed before undertaking the analysis.

I'm hoping for an early xmas pressie!!

Hero, i see your logic. I think maybe issues started slightly earlier in H1 as the Nov AGM statement was quite vague (e.g. H1 will be similar to last year - and no performance to date numbers) and also H1 last year had full 6 months of Roots versus very low volumes previous H1 as product had just been launched. So 'similar' to previous year would already indicate issues IMHO as that would already imply ST revenue was less than previous year.
Furthermore, the Jan statement mentioned DTC issues had already been resolved, which again indicates to me that maybe there was a time gap to enable resolution.
So potentially Oct & Nov rather than Nov and Dec - but regardless it was £300k down.
Just another point the 38% 4 month increase also includes the £122k from last weekend in June DTC that couldn't be included in 2019 numbers. So excluding that and % increase is slightly lower at c33% (according to FinnCap).
So anything over 40% H1 will be a really decent return IMHO and it looks like we have things in place to achieve this

yes and very strong negative response from the market. Even with the recent rise PE was only c10.

Not sure what else company can do

Wish - if this share is illiquid how would a share consolidation make any difference? Surely just even less shares but at a higher price.

the last few RNSs have been transformational for SKIN. Who would have thought that Labskin AI would be pushed into the background almost as Rhinocloud gains traction and can be utilised in so many different industries.
And now we have the water announcement.
I think for now people don't quite see how some of these deals translate into actual revenues, hence the share price indecision.
I think GB was hoping the £4m rev for 2020 would bring some clarity on this front.
Anything under 2p (so c£20m market cap) is a bargain IMHO

good point Hero, I hope you are right re 50% H1 increase.
After 2019 results I did say I was hoping for 50% H1 uplift so was slightly disappointed with recent 38% increase (which I suspects includes the bulk gift set order from Boots), however, didn't realise that most of DTC issues were Nov and Dec - thanks for clarifying.
The last 4 or 5 RNSs have all been really positive so at some point the share price will react:
1. Retail footprint increased significantly for all 3 retail brands
2. 2019 profit met - plus improvements in cash and stock levels and record DTC revenues in May and June 2019
3. Distribution deals for Prolong in addition to DTC
4. New product to be launched next year and deal already signed with SD to stock in all 800 stores
5. Expansion of ST DTC offering in Australia and US
6. ST xmas offering delivered on time (not bad as how often did HC miss his own targets)

Also, add to this the positive consensus of not having HC involved with IDP anymore and the fear that he might sell shares whenever good news is announced.

This was of course announced at AGM for 4 month period (July 2019 to Oct 2019) and in interviews the next day KC and JB confirm this % increase should be maintained for the remainder of H1.
With the new choc ST being sold via SD in 681 stores this upfront purchase should be over £100k. Similarly SD have a great black Friday ST gift set offer and if this is rollout out to the bigger SD stores too, as well as online, this will also generate decent revenues.
The recent ST Boots gift set seems to have been a great success - it sold out in stores and online within a week or two.
Finally it appears C+L should generate good revenues in the lead up to xmas as it's gift sets are being sold in 500 stores rather than just 46 this time last year (where they quickly sold out).
Plus DTC performance should be better as we had issues this time last year. All this reinforces H1 numbers.
A good H1 will de-risk 2020 numbers and will hopefully show that under KC IDP is in safe hands.
Maybe the share price will reflect this one day!

but company has already stated they will need to raise again in 2020 so that £7m cash will be burnt through quickly.
Those multiple deals do not appear sufficient to get Xeros anywhere near breakeven

and yet no change to bid/ask ?? Often moves significantly on quite low volumes

agreed, a disappointing start to the week.

Maybe the 10% ers taking profits from last week at 1st sign of weakness.
Still think anything under 80p is a massive bargain as from there a 25% uplift to £1, which seems fair value to me

why will it move? It's loss making, has always been and has repeated had placings to 'keep the lights on'. It has run out of money so effectively has to put itself up for sale.

The tie in with Google has been going for a few years and yet revenues are not growing sufficiently for me to conclude that there is a sufficient market for the products.

I don't see today's announcement as a positive IMHO

impressive NOT impression!

just noticed this black Friday promotion at SD - maybe this is one of the exclusive deals mentioned with SD (in financial results in Sept).
I had assumed it was a xmas gift set so recently enquired as to why it wasn't in SD shops and xmas catalogue. Appears it's being launched to coincide with black Friday at end of Nov. The Moisture Mousse is exclusive to SD so makes sense to build the offering around that.
Also was in Manchester this week and popped into the big Boots on market street (2 floors). Good to see the standard ST range still on display (Boots sometimes reduce seasonal ranges to make room for xmas stuff) but couldn't find the recently introduced gift set. Asked an assistant and they've sold out. A big store like that is likely to have order anyway between 30 and 50 so to have sold out is great news (and Boots has c500 big stores).

https://www.superdrug.com/Skinny-Tan/Skinny-Tan-Moisture-Magic-Self-Tanning-Kit/p/786546?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI8fvo3aTs5QIVAuDtCh3_VQsLEAQYASABEgK4VfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

good spot Chris. c30% rise in last 2 days on back of SKIN deal. Well done for joining the dots

In 2019 C+L revenues were c£200k (and Boon has mentioned this was c£80k H1 and £120k H2).

This year C+L numbers may be transformational for the brand.
Firstly the gift sets introduced last year in Myer were well received and sold out quickly - IDP are better prepared this year and have introduced 3 new gift sets and also stock levels accordingly and these are in all 450 priceline stores in addition to Myer.

The AGM presentation states C+L has increased form 46 (Myer department stores) to 496 as 450 Priceline stores also stock C+L (from April this year). I queried this as we are also in New Zealand. IDP has confirm that we are also stocked in 85 chemist stores (mainly unichem) in New Zealand so the total number is 581 - a 13 fold increase!

IDP also confirmed that most revenues were via retail as DTC volumes are quite low.
For H1 last year the 46 stores could have generated say £1,500 each (and would have been higher if xmas range hadn't sold out).
If the extra 450 Priceline stores do 50% of this each (I think these stores are similar to B&M in UK so have a different client base etc) that's £750 or £338k in total.
Add on say £100k for the Myers stores and DTC and that's over £400k for H1 (not including any NZ sells).

Now FinnCap has £400k rev for whole year and based on above if gift sets are successful we could potential do this in H1 only. I will be interested to see H1 numbers from C+L in January and fully expect them to exceed expectations.

yes 18 of the 20 by 2020 already in the bag. Pace of acquisition is impression. Once Paris and Venice get completed in 2020 revenues should be much higher. Need to get occupancy rates up from low 70s to low 80% as this will increase revenues further. Looking forward to next financials

surely this additional drill is to get to the copper. We know it is there but so far it is not in the JORC. If we can add a number of tonnes of copper then the NPV could increase massively. It won't be sold until the copper is proved, or not. LR appears to be keen to get this done ASAP which is a good sign IMHO

the last update we've had was the 12th Aug one when they said H2 numbers would be ahead of previous year and on track to previously announced - so c£6.7m for year.

We've heard nothing since so assume we must still be on track, else they would need to inform the market. We are now in mid Nov so for me no news is good news.

Unfortunately share price has lagged behind and any minor issues are overblown e.g. auditor change and the recent negative RNS (when news was positive)

Nice to see the share price recovering slightly from a pretty awful week or so.

Anyway, using Profit after tax from 2019 (1.01m) and a conservative PE of 10 then with 14.5m shares in issue price per share should be 70p.
However, company is still growing and 2020 profit forecast is £2m - so say £1.5m after tax.
Based on that a forward valuation is :
a PE of 10 is 105p per share
a PE of 12 is 125p
a PE of 15 is 155p

Now with a 20% year on year growth for last 2 years, a reasonably conservative 2020 forecast, a new product on way and HC no longer involved (who many blame for IDPs previous performance issues) a PE of 10 looks overly conservative to me (average FTSE 100 is 14).
So if you have confidence in KC to deliver the 2020 numbers (and first 4 months 38% growth is a strong start) then anything less than £1 is good value IMHO. DYOR etc

has Turner Pope ever provided a price forecast for SKIN? I'm not aware of one.

I think part of the issue is that it's difficult to value a small, fast growing company with limited current revenues - currently c£1m p.a vs £18m current valuation.

The £4m for 2020 provides more clarity - say £2m gross profit and £1m profit net then at a PE of 20 then that's £20m for SKIN.
Ok, not much more than current price BUT £4m appears quite conservative, growth % is fantastic and if Rhinocloud margins are as high as has been quoted maybe the £2m gross profit is nearer £3m.
I can see 3p (so c£30m) in 2020 definitely