Member Info for shandypants2

forgot to say it mentions there will be new ST products introduced next year to mirror the success of Wonder Serum this year.

Great idea - wonder serum seemed to be the big revenue generator last year so hopefully we can do similar next summer.

https://www.innovaderma.com/company-publications/

AGM presentation now online.
No real surprises as it's last year's numbers. Good to see DTC grew by 22% revenue last year and retail footprint for all 3 brands has increased massively for each - C+L for example in 496 stores, so 46 this time last year.
Having full year in these additional retail stores plus moderate DTC growth (e.g. 10%) should see YE2020 numbers achieved.

FinnCap - update summary below. 38% year on year increase to date (to hit year end target of £15.8m overall growth needs to be c23%). These figures do not include any rev for new product and Growlase as mentioned below.
All pretty positive really so price down 10% - FFS!!

InnovaDerma (IDP): Corp AGM – strong start to the year InnovaDerma provided a trading update for the first four months of the year with revenues up 38% over the comparable period, benefiting from a full contribution of Skinny Tan in Boots stores, which was launched in March 2019. This is in line with our expectations for full-year revenues of £15.8m, an increase of 23%. We are not making any changes to forecasts, although point to the upcoming (Q1 2020) launches of a new product category into Superdrug stores and Growlase in the US during FY 2020 that have not yet been included. We reiterate our 200p price target, acknowledging also the value that a new product category has in reducing the current portfolio concentration and de-risking revenue growth.

agreed!!! Should be touching 2p a share not nearer 1p. FFS sort it out.

last RNS that mentioned figures did state we are still on track to meet year end targets - think that's c£6.7m rev and c0.25 profit. That's a good story, surely??

good spot Hero.

I think IDP said they would be focusing some marketing spend on Roots this period and on facebook they're featuring a TOWIE 'star' using the products so guess it's all linked to that.
With DTC success H2 (record revenues in May and June 2019) I'm hoping this has continued into H1 and also lessons learnt from ST DTC successes can be used across the other brands.
I'm guessing you will only follow a product if you've bought it so another positive for H1 revenues.

yet another profit warning. Can't see this ever being profitable IMHO

the Monte Carlo distribution model is often used by Actuaries to value assets and liabilities.

Essentially it runs them through hundreds of thousands (so 100,000 plus) scenarios to generate outcomes. This can then be charted and the extremes are usually used for conservative valuation purposes (e.g 1 in 200 events or 99.5%).

If LSAI is doing likewise it can use these outcomes to better target the most successful advertising positions etc.

Not quite sure how this will translate into revenue but seems a good idea, if not too expensive

agreed Bricks 0.07 valuation was before JORC, as I said, so valuation should be higher. Hence I'm sitting on my hands!

listened to LR over weekend - did he say he's really excited for the METS? On the whole he sounded a lot more positive than he has in last couple of interviews and clearly the JORC results haven't impacted share price as expected.
Turner and Pope saying 0.07p prior to JORC so I'm sitting on my hands for a while.
If METS drop later this week / early next week hopefully we should get nearer to the above valuation.

down c15% today on volumes of £3k traded!

Only have 1 profitable brand , Red Leg, and although promotions and marketing in H2 has been proposed to drive revenues this all costs money.

Need to do something with Blackwoods too. Great product but not sure of it's place in the crowded gin market. Retailers not stocking it, as per last RNS, doesn't bode well

I'm but having a stand at a trade show is BAU and is not RNS news.

Last week radio 5 live had daily features about issues conceiving linked with national fertility week. It was all IVF - good and bad stories. CPT could and should have got a mention as MyLotus should be used by ALL couples before contemplating IVF (which is costly and has limited success). That is the CPT story.

Nice to see share price rising but IMHO lack of cash is a massive concern

I think it was Vox, if not Proactive. Essentially I think CEO was saying they interpret results as they go along so when final patient is signed up and then scanned final results can be released soon after. So although patient sign up is/may be slightly delayed the results, scheduled for Q4, shouldn't be delayed

Jilson , totally agree.

For a £50m company 1/2 year revs of £30k is just not acceptable.

They now need to grow rapidly to justify this valuation. For 2020 they need to be in the £5m range IMHO.

Cash looks ok, despite continued hiring - it's the revenue growth that will sink or swim this company

Good to see DTC are making frequent and ever changing offers, particularly in UK and US and both are now offering Moisture Mousse (which was exclusive to SD).

US are offering Halloween bundles - great idea.
https://www.skinnytan.com/collections/halloween-skinny-dip

Australia less proactive but their focus seems to be on the Wonder Serum. A little surprised that Protect & Glow hasn't been rolled out in Oz as we are coming up to their summer months but WTFDIK.

Yet to see any ST xmas gift set in SD - there is one bundle of 3 items, but it looks a few months old and certainly doesn't have any wow factor. As IDP called out they were doing an exclusive gift set with SD it should be landing about now.

listened to the interview last night and have to say I quite like the CEO. KC comes across as knowledgeable, calm and assured and I would prefer him to do a lot more of these interviews as HC is not only damaged goods in some people's eyes and can come across as overly slick. Additionally as HC is Australian based the time difference is a massive issue and I'm hoping he limits his travel costs!!!
The 9 SKUs will be 3 versions of 3 separate products so this could be interesting and as mentioned could be expanded further. Interest from overseas distributors is also a massive plus.

The tie up with SD is great - c800 stores of which 400 to 500 are a decent size plus DTC which appears to be flying at the moment. Both from early March so c3.5 months rev in 2020 results. HOWEVER, until we know the products and potential revenue I don't think the share price will move much.

FinnCap has £15.8m for 2020 (12.3 ST, 2.2 Roots, 0.9 Prolong and 0.4 C+L). As previously mentioned I think range will be between £16m and 17m (ST 12.5 to 13, Roots 2, C+L 0.5, Prolong 1 to 1.5 - the range in ST and Prolong is because i'm unclear of the margin we are making on distribution deals for Prolong and how successful ST distribution deal will be in US).

Neither FinnCap or my numbers have any revenue for new product and Growlase (where a distribution deal has been mooted). Based on yesterday's announcement I think £500k is a reasonably conservative revenue forecast as the launch will be supported with instore and DTC marketing.

All 4 of our existing brands have had positive revenue movement recently and this now makes 5.

I am looking forward to AGM statement and hopefully some clarity on 4 month performance (July to Oct 2019) .
Whilst 'performing in line with expectations' would be ok. I'm hoping for a bit more detail.

More proactive coverage from 31/10.

Was interesting to hear that the Chinese deal could be quite large and China doesn't have a fully approved IV alternative.
Was thinking US deal would be the biggie this quarter. I had underestimated the Chinese deal.
Should be an interesting few weeks.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/906058/shield-therapeutics-analyst-discusses-further-positive-data-from-non-inferiority-feraccru-study-906058.html

As mentioned on ADVFN Zero motorcycles (using Starcom trackers) sold 2,500 in 2018, this will be c5k in 2019 and should double again in 2020.
Starcom revenues should increase at a similar rate.

https://www.salesforce.com/uk/customer-success-stories/zero-motorcycle/

Yes, hopefully next week but think in last interview CEO stated that they are combining the sign up and results analysis phases so this might mean a slight delay. Last we heard we still needed one more patient in each category so hopefully this won't take too long.
Positive results are almost a given so happy to wait.

Scary - for clarity NFX has already received £0.5m from the Chinese - the outstanding milestone payment is £2m.

We have been waiting for this to drop for over 3 months.

That and the Japanese discussions are the short term drivers IMHO, with a lot more to come in 2020

Totally agree with the last post. It's national fertility week and not I mention of MyLotus - can't get pregnant - IVF or nothing according to the reports.

What a missed opportunity