Member Info for shamI89

Company has some under-developed assets which can double its production in couple of years.However right now there is not enough value left for shareholders as not only company is pursuing rights issue it is also considering debt to equity. So first shareholdets would be diluted through rights issue and then debt to equity swap.Company has not announced a date and market has been given an opaque indication that refinancing would be carried out in Quarter 4.So until we hear something about refinancing and terms attached to it, share price would keep on falling.Only thing that can strenghthen company's power of negotiation is a sudden rise in price of oil

Results would determine share price and what strategy they are pursuing to reduce debt level apart from offloading Ugandan assets. Think they are trying to sell Kenyan assets as well but securing a sale is hard in this environment.

What is current ask?

Going through previous interim results date , they can come at any time between end of August until end of September.

I have taken a small position now at 16.4, but would add more if stays around current level tomorrow

There is no denying that but there is still a risk besides that , so not risk free investment although current market capital can be justified by its stake in Polymetal.

Its product awaiting Russian approval could bring some really good rewards , besides that its stake in Polymetal is worth more than its market capital but in my opinion these two factors failed to give share price much needed boost.

Hard to say, as I said that I reckon few of time may still have some shares to offload.Knowing their antics they may even start pumping it after they buy it back to cause another p&d for quick 10/20%.

Some well known "p&d" faces were pushing it last week and that has resulted in a lot of speculated money getting stuck in this share, think they have dumped and so has the crew that followed their "tip".A few may leave today or tomorrow and that would be an ideal time to buy it.

And took a small position yesterday at 211.30, regardless of long term fundamentals short-terms it offers a position to make a quick 10%.

Every $5 above 38adds 50-75 millions to company balancee. , but we will get exact figures in this account and it all depends on price of oil now. As I said I want to take position in this company but I am waiting for results. I can afford to pay 10-20% extra if results are good and there are no hidden surprises.On the flip side if results are bad I can get these 10-20% cheap.

Problem is now a days it is not worth taking "two years view" as so much can change within days and months. Two years ago nobody would have thought that one day tullow would be trading at 7.5. I remember it being over 1000 at some point, premier always had its fair share of problems. Tullow looks cheap but may even be cheaper, I can pay extra 10/20% after results but I would be satisfied that company is in great health.

I want to take a position in Tullow but I want to wait for results in case it may contain some nasty surprises.

This company had win a jack pot when they managed to find a farm in partner in the form of premier, at that time it was one of few oil companies that was debt free with huge cash pile and we had oil meltdown of 2015, where these lot could have picked up some really good assets for peanuts.Premier bough Eon assets for 130 millions if I remember correctly.This Bod has wasted all of that money and has nothing to show for it. Premier is under financial strain and wont take on a a huge developmemt program like San Leon for atleast two years.

Yes , that is why I have said that tullow has tried to do right thing at the wrong time as Ugandan assets were worth much more than 573 millions but in this environment they had to sell these at throw away price and that has to he approved by authorities.Premier bought assets at the boom of cycle, apart from Eon north sea assets, problem is some of these assets are worth much more and could be game-changers but short term money flow can wipe out shareholders

Premier wounds were self inflicted, they should not have bought Bp's assets if their financial condition was that critical, for that money they are looking to wipe out or heavily dilute share holders through rights issue and debt to equity swap.Tullow tried to do right think at wrong time by offloading Ugandan assets.

You are right, I did not read their April update, but I still cant understand this current sell off and only reason I can think of is its debt.Update is mot far off and in roughly two weeks we will get all details that we need.

Go through their update on 12 March , but here it is "2020 free cash flow forecast of $50-$75 million at $50/bbl; free cash flow breakeven of c.$45/bbl".

In their update in March they stated that their break even price is 45 dollars,I remember telling SuaerKraut that after premier oil Tullow could come under attack due to 3 Billion debt.Right now all speculations and results would clarify everything.

3 billion debt, Tullow breaks even when oil is 45 so it is breaking even or making a little profit.