Member Info for shakhtar

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/kaz-minerals-suitor-said-to-mull-sweetening-2-4-billion-buyout
Bloomberg just reported that revised bid is coming, expected in the 700-750 range.
That is ridiculous if this is true. Shares are already changing hands above the top of that range, and we've seen 785p just a few days ago (not to mention 807p intraday high today).
Are they really so thick not to see that shareholders simply won't sell at this level?
And surely the so-called "Independent Committee" and their advisers will not be recommending an offer in this range, given that both existing shareholders and the market clearly see it as undervaluing the company. Let's see how independent this committee really is...

Looks like someone knows something we don't. Price just shot up to 805-810p at around 10:58 and a few trades were made at those prices before it retreated but still up 3% trading 765p whilst copper is down nearly 1%. Takeover Panel should be asking the company to make the announcement to explain this.

Good article:

https://www.intellinews.com/minority-investors-says-gbp1bn-2bn-missing-from-kaz-minerals-buyout-offer-valuation-201759/?source=kazakhstan

Give us 900p Mr. Novachuk and maybe I'll start thinking then about giving you my shares.

I never owned this Sharegar, so don't you worry about me. I looked at it carefully about a year and a half ago and decided against it. Certainly wouldn't touch it with a barge pole now with all the problems in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan and covid etc making this even less likely to ever be funder by any further debt.
You see, I don't trade short term, I invest where there are strong fundamentals. This one is overvalued by a mile. This is not to say that one could not time entry and exit perfectly (if they are lucky) and make a profit here. In fact, you can just follow Mr Andersson's buying spells to prop up share price and trade around it, if that's what you are after, and I wish you luck with that strategy. Just don't sit in this share long-term like some losers on advfn, make sure you jump ship on time before it sinks. In the meantime, I'm happy I make you laugh. GLA

https://www.mining.com/copper-price-defies-predictions-of-a-pullback/
Quote from the article:
"...“Any price pullback to $7,600 should be used to build longs. We expect copper prices to reach $9,500 by mid-2021,” analysts at UBS said..."
I wonder if those UBS analysts are the same ones that issued a recommendation to the Independent Committee that 640p was a fair price for KAZ, which at $9500 copper would generate EBITDA of $2.5 billion (and that's on current production levels, disregarding Aktogay-2 coming soon) and Net profit after tax of $1.6 billion, or 250p per share, making that recommended offer valued at P/E of 2.5x !!! On this basis alone UBS should be prosecuted for their role in all this.

I agree, the boat has sailed. They need to be bidding £10 now to have a solid chance to pull this through within a short time frame. Otherwise it would be a protracted process as shareholders wait it out, hoping for another upward revision, and the risk is then high that no bid will succeed, particularly if copper price continues on its current uptrend (which I think is very likely)

I bet we will see announcement as early as next week with the Independent Committee withdrawing their recommendation. Pressure is on!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/kaz-minerals-investor-pushes-board-to-scrap-2-4-billion-buyout?srnd=deals

"The deal process should be terminated, as it’s “inconceivable” that minority investors will accept the offer of 640 pence per share, RWC Partners Ltd. wrote in a letter to KAZ directors seen by Bloomberg News."

“Nova Resources should recognise that they will be unable to de-list the company and should immediately begin to harmonise relations with minority shareholders,” RWC wrote. “It would be more beneficial for all shareholders if the company were able to focus on being one of the world’s lowest cost, publicly-listed copper miners rather than continuing along the current path of investor discord.”

Agree 100%!

Strong institutional buying over last few days leaves me with no doubt that a much improved bid is coming. Information is already out there and those in the know are buying. I hope Mr.Kim bids at least 900p or else I'm not selling my shares to him.

Whether an offeror is ALLOWED to by shares to achieve 50% (regardless of whether they have secured sufficient undertakings) is a matter of FACT and not opinion. As a matter of fact, at present, they will not be allowed to by those shares (unless they formally change their target and notify shareholders of it). This is where your statement is misleading - your conclusions and your opinions are based on the ASSUMPTION that they have 50%. Which is wrong. Is that clear now?

you obviously didn't read carefully my post, or you don't understand what it says

One thing is clear to me. For over two months now the share price stayed consistently above 640p. Every day millions of shares change hands. So for two months now those people believing 640p is acceptable have been selling and for two months now those people believing 640p is a rubbish offer have been buying. Two months is more than enough time for all those who would have accepted an offer at 640p to exit their investment at a price above that number. Anyone who holds any shares now is surely holding because they will not be accepting the offer, and any offer below today's price. Otherwise, why hold?
This makes it a great investment in these volatile times. Where else can you put your money where downside is known and limited and the upside is virtually assured?
IMHO. DYOR

Rastuss, it is good that you make it clear that you differ from everyone else here. Because your posts are highly misleading. There is no problem about having an opinion, but when expressing it you should make sure you do not inadvertently (or purposefully?) mislead people, thus influencing their opinion and trading decisions. For example, in your last post, you seem to imply that getting to 50% is a done deal (not to mention drawing incorrect conclusion from what this means). To be clear, the offerors' STATED INTENTION was to take the company private, which required achieving 75% holding. "Stated intention" are not just words. What it means is that, in accordance with the Takeover Code, unless they receive enough acceptances from shareholders to enable them to get to 75%, they cannot buy a single share! Now, they can, if they wish, and when they publish their offer documents, revise this statement to require a minimum of 50% of acceptances (which is the minimum required by the Takeover Coder for any takeover to proceed). If they do so, then will indeed be allowed then to buy those shares for which they already received irrevocable undertakings. But that is ONLY if they state in their offer documents that getting to above 50% would be enough for them. AT THE MOMENT, this is not true, and all we know for a fact is that they clearly stated their intention to take the company private, which requires 75%. So as of now, they cannot proceed with purchasing ANY shares unless and until they receive acceptances from 75% less the 39.4% they already own.
So, Rastuss, please, kindly make sure you comments are clear and not misleading, and please refrain from scaremongering!

Clued, no they don't have any shares other than 39.4% they own plus a commitment by 10.6% of their friends to sell to them IF they launch the offer. What people don't seem to understand is that they have NOT yet launched the offer. No offer documents have been sent to shareholders yet. They only announced their intention to offer 640p, and they must put forward their offer before 4 February. SP today is 727p which basically means that shareholders are saying NO, loud and clear, to 640p. So when the offer finally comes through (if at all) it will have to be increased to, probably, well above 800p, or otherwise they will not be able to buy any shares except those 10.6% of their friends who already committed to sell.
To force takeover through, by which I assume you mean force everyone to sell, one needs to acquire 90% of shares. They only have, or rather can get to, 50% at the moment.

Rastuss: I disagree with you on everything you said in your last post about what would happen to KAZ once this ridiculous offer fails. I have explained my reasons a few days ago, so no point repeating myself. I do want to address your "you'd been better off..." point, as someone else today raised a similar point. In short, you guys make a number of false assumptions when advising us to dump KAZ and buy ANTO or another copper play.
Firstly, not everyone's investment strategy is just to follow the trend or to have copper in their portfolio, which is what "buy Antofagasta instead" statement advocates. I don't just jump on the copper bandwagon, nor am I a trendfollower. I invest in companies that, in my humble opinion and based on my analysis, trade at substantial discount to their fundamental value, at any time in the cycle, and KAZ is certainly one of such companies. Antofagasta has always been trading at 1.1x NAV (and well above now) so from my viewpoint there is no reason to be holding it. KAZ, on the contrary, has fallen from trading at just under 1.0xNAV before the Baimskaya acquisition to barely holding on to 0.5x NAV since. For a company with such great assets and never missing its production guidance for the last 12 years this is cheap!
Secondly, your statement assumes that KAZ shareholders only have KAZ in their portfolio and not ANTO or GLEN, too. I said why I don't buy ANTO but I do own GLEN, for the same reason of believing that it trades below the fundamental value of its assets. So does FXPO and a number of other companies I hold.
KAZ is a deserving member of my portfolio, and for as long as I believe that it trades below its fundamental value I will be holding the shares, and trading in and out of them depending on how this dynamic changes.

Rastuss: if my granny had balls she'd be called a granddad. "IF" doesn't matter. The FACT is the price is above $8000 per tonne!

Where is the so-called "independent" committee, I wonder? Sitting quiet while the market is telling them what it thinks of this derisory offer by Mr. Kim and Mr. Novachuk. Those directors on the committee must be ashamed of themselves, and Mr. Southam in particular! This offer is doomed and with it the reputation of directors who approved it will be destroyed.

Let's name and shame them all:
Andrew Southam
Michael Lynch-Bell
John MacKenzie
Lynda Armstrong
Charles Watson
Alison Baker

Remember those names and let's make sure we do not put our hard earned cash into shares of companies where they serve as independent directors, now or in the future. And if they read this, or their PR advisors follow comments on this board, I hope they will get the message. And unless they want to be unemployable, they should withdraw their recommendation for this derisory offer without delay.

And whilst we are on the subject, where are City and UBS who issued their recommendation to the "independent" committee in support of the 640p offer? While at the same time the same banks were telling investors that target price for KAZ was 800p! Well, I guess they were right in the latter at least! Those banks should also be named and shamed. And they, too, should care about their reputation and review their opinion of this offer and withdraw it! They are facilitators and enablers in this sham, accomplices in this blatant attempt to steal the company from its shareholders. Hey, City and UBS, if you or your PR people are reading this, we are calling you out! Stop enabling the weak and incompetent "independent" committee to hide behind your advice and perpetrate thievery!

Let's all do something about it. Only a handful of people write on this board, but I know quite a few people follow it. If you agree with this comment, don't just like it, say "I SUPPORT" in reply. And let's all write to the committee and to the banks and demand withdrawal of their recommendation NOW! This company is easily worth £10, if not £12 a share. The independent committee MUST NOT support any offer below £10!

I said this 15 months ago on this board, and I say it again. Massively overvalued and piling on more debt while burning cash. No-one would lend to them anymore, so Mr Anderson steps in to the rescue, now to a tune of $30m. Well, at least it would generate him a nice $3m revenue stream, which shareholders will ultimately finance. Good for him!
It is incredible to realize that if I'd shorted this back when I looked at this in Sept 2019, I would have been proven right and would have made a profit DESPITE the massive rally in gold price in the intervening period. Terrible.

Enough of Kaz, I am off now to celebrating the New Year - it's only a few hours from midnight where I am.

HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone! Hope it brings us all luck in investing and return to freedom from covid. Good luck!

Precisely, Hash! What people fail to realize is that it was the purchase of Baimskaya that created this unusual opportunity to buy an undervalued and underappreciated company at a huge discount to its fundamental value - the first such opportunity for Kim in the company's 15 years of being listed when the market reacted with such immense negativity to what was a long term sound strategic value-accretive move. This reaction established an excellent (and persistent) price arbitrage - the share price was driven lower while the market was moving higher, gold prices moving to record levels later followed by copper prices, while all this time the company kept generating huge amounts of cash, reducing its leverage and adding further value by taking Baimskaya through feasibility study and confirming its massive potential. All this time this price arbitrage was deepening as KAZ massive discount to its fundamental value kept increasing, and the uncertainty around Baimskaya was used by Kim to keep that arbitrage in place by releasing next to no information on Baimskaya - didn't you notice how scarce the news flow was since the acquisition? Whether Kim planned all this from the outset and purchased Baimskaya for this reason, or whether it was just a fluke that reaction to this acquisition was unexpectedly bad (and I tend to think it was luck rather than planned), it was too good an opportunity to miss, so no wonder he came out with the offer. The only reason he didn't launch the takeover early in the year when his luck struck again when share price was driven even lower by coronavirus pandemic is that he either was not quite ready with the financing, or VTB got scared and put it on hold. I'm sure of that - otherwise he would have done it, no doubt.
What they (Kim and Novachuk) don't quite understand is that it's not just a handful of retail investors like myself who understand the above, but the whole market does, comprising professional institutional investors, RWC being a prime example. They were quick to come out and call this rubbish offer for what it is, politely saying "we are DEEPLY UNDERWHELMED by the offer". And since that statement copper price moved up by almost $1000 per tonne!
KAZ is trading above the offer price and that says it all - the market is saying NO to the offer, and it's just a matter of time before Kim sends out invitations to shareholders to sell their shares to him and will hear silence in response. They'd have to raise the offer price or face humiliating defeat and miss this great, and rare, opportunity to buy the company - because they are greedy.