Member Info for shakhtar

ok, that was operating profit of $1bn. net profit $639m, so PE 8.9x, still well below peers
The best surprise is the cash cost of production. At today's prices KAZ makes $8100 for each tonne of copper it produces. So this year they could be looking at $2.4bn EBITDA at today's price, and that's without Aktogay 2. That is huge!

EBITDA $1431m, Net Profits $1 billion!!!
Net debt down to $2.6bn against expectation of a rise to $3bn
Cash cost only 64c/lb - that's huge surprise, down from 77c/lb from previous year! Amazing!
So, KAZ is trading on PE of just 5.7 and trailing EV/EBITDA of just 5.8x (against copper peers trading at 7-8x!!!
CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP (IMHO)
Nova's takeover attempt is surely dead now!

Oh, and if anyone doesn't like taking that risk of having to sell for 780p, I would suggest you sell today at 847p so to give an opportunity for someone who (like myself) thinks this company is undervalued at today's price to buy those shares. That is important because those who buy now surely will not be accepting the offer, so the more people sell now at a price well above the offer price, the higher are the chances that Nova will not get to the all important 75%

The key part in that quote is "we've got the necessary votes". Problem is Nova doesn't, and the question remains if they can get to the magic number - 75%. If they don't get the necessary 75%, they cannot do anything and the company will remain listed in London and you'd be able to sell your shares any time, just like now. If they do get 75%, then they can take the company private, and yes it will be difficult to sell your shares, but that doesn't mean that minorities will not be protected. The company will remain a UK company, subject to Companies Act, and also for 10 years will continue to be regulated by the Takeover Code, both of which offers reasonable protections to the minorities.
The same Takeover Code, incidentally, requires that bidders provide a minimum of 14 days for shareholders to make up their mind once they've reached the magic 75%. So, if Nova do get to 75%, we will all have 14 days then to decide whether we want to keep our shares and become a shareholder in a privately held company, or whether it would be then time to accept their offer and sell shares, at the same price that others are getting. That's 780p now, and cannot be lower now under any circumstances.
I'm keeping mine, at least for the time being. No advice intended. DYOR

Copper up another 2%. KAZ shares up a few pence, keeping steady progress up - another day of trading with more people buying well above the offer price. Steady towards rejection of the offer. Can't wait to results this week.

I wouldn't switch from KAZ into other copper players, I would stay put and reject the offer. Nova's bid provides a nice protection from the downside risk. I agree with the view that copper is just entering a new super cycle, but it's not going rise in straight line, and a correction will come sooner or later. Holding KAZ is a great way of limiting your downside when correction comes whilst keeping exposure to the long term copper growth. That's my opinion...
Having said that, I do believe copper price has some way to run yet, even in this first leg up, before any meaningful correction. IMHO, I see copper reaching $4.6/lb by April-May time before correcting. I agree, Nova couldn't have picked a worse time for their offer. It's becoming quite obvious now that no shareholder in their right mind would accept the current offer. Nova would then increase their bid to 880-900p and extend the offer period beyond the current deadline (which, incidentally, is 9 March). They are allowed to keep the offer open for 60 days, so 8 April will be the next and final deadline. I don't think shareholders would budge, though, and the bid will fail then, just weeks away from the AGM in May.
I see big changes coming, as shareholders would be coming to the AGM with their anger at this whole debacle being very fresh on their mind. They will likely make their feelings known to the not-so-independent directors through their votes, and at the very least the CEO, Mr. Southam and the Deputy Chair, Mr Lynch-Bell can expect to lose their jobs. I wouldn't be surprised if other NEDs get 30-40% of votes against their reappointment. The company would have to respond by replacing most of the Board. Mr. Kim and Mr. Novachuk would of course vote themselves to remain on the Board, but I cannot see Mr. Novachuk remaining as the Executive Chair. The Board would need to be reconstituted with fresh independent faces.
And, importantly, the true value of this company will start emerging (starting with the results announcement this Thursday) as 300kt of copper produced at the lowest cost globally (!), and going soon to 370kt with the start up of Aktogay 2, is truly a cash machine worth noting, particularly when copper prices are about to go into all-time record territory. If copper rally continues, I see sp reaching £12-14 range within this year.
DYOR and GLA

Only a day since Chinese got back to work from lunar holidays and copper already threatening $4.
Anyone on here still thinks of sending their offer acceptance form in? ))))))))))))))

I reckon the copper price action over the next few days and the results next week will put the final nail in the coffin of Nova's offer and we will see KAZ sprinting to £10 in no time

Renaissance Capital raised their target price for KAZ by 25% to £10 yesterday. They said: "We maintain our BUY rating as we like KAZ's portfolio of low-cost, long-life copper assets, which we expect to provide robust returns through the cycle. We believe KAZ offers near-term volume growth through Aktogay II and longer-term growth potential through the Baimskaya project." They attributed $1.1bn NPV to Baimskaya even with the $8bn capex in arriving at their recommendation.

At $3.8/lb copper, KAZ has a run rate ebitda of $2 billion (and that's without Aktogay 2)!
At conservative 5x that's $10bn EV and debt dropping to below $1.5bn by end of year.
At current £/$ fx rate this would translate to £12.90 per share!
I thinks it's time for Nova to admit defeat and pull the offer. Let the company trade freely so we can finally see the £12 sp it deserves.

https://www.mining.com/copper-price-surges-to-new-8-year-high-on-supply-worries/
Copper moves above $3.8/lb, heading fast towards $4/lb.
Surely a further increase in the offer, this time above 900p, is looking quite likely now.
Hedge funds are accumulating. Looking good! GLA

Nova's bid financing facility agreement with VTB Bank has been made public and is available for everyone to see. It shows that they have $3.52bn available to them to buy out KAZ shareholders. Assuming they fixed the £/$ exchange rate at the time 640p offer was made, I calculate that they used up $2.4bn of the $3.52bn facility to make their initial offer. This means they had $1.12bn of additional funds in the kitty before they upped the bid today. THEY COULD HAVE INCREASED THEIR OFFER TO 925p PER SHARE. This is what they budgeted for when asking for a loan from VTB bank. Clearly this is what they believe KAZ is worth - 925p per share! Shareholders should not accept their 780p offer, IMHO, and wait for the full 925p being tabled.

RWC statement flies squarely in the face of the not-so-independent committee who said they consulted with the shareholders before recommending the offer. Liars. They ignored the shareholders. For them there are only two shareholders who matter are Mr. Novachuk and Mr. Kim.

Given that the offer will now be sent to shareholders only on Feb 8th (at the earliest) and the minimum offer period of 21 days, we will all have the opportunity to see the results on Feb 25th before making any decisions. And for those who have doubts and think whether they should yield to NoVa offer, I hope the results would show how much this offer undervalues the outstanding quality of this company's assets. I believe the result would once and for all put a nail in this offer's coffin.

I expect net cash cost of production to decline significantly compared to last year given substantially higher gold and silver prices and devaluation of the Kazakhstan local currency, firmly keeping KAZ in the lowest cost producer GLOBALLY! Copper production was above the top of the guided range (280-300kt) at 306kt. All this should translate into EBITDA of at least the same and likely higher value than last year, probably around $1.5bn or thereabout. Capex was curtailed due to covid uncertainties. This all means net debt should decrease to about $2.5bn against expectations of a rise to $3bn at start of the year. We should hear an update on Aktogay Phase 2 which I expect to be on time and on budget, commencing production later this year. We should see production guidance for 2021 at similar levels to 2020 as the management will again be conservative and discount any production from Aktogay 2 (but we should expect 2021 production should actually be higher than in 2020, at around 310-320kt). At current prices the expectations should be for 2021 EBITDA of $1.9-2.0bn.

Do your own math, make your own minds, but I agree with Hash, the shares should be trading well above £12, so any offers below £10 are just too low and disrespectful, but nevertheless welcome as they provide a nice floor for the price in case of general market volatility. Great investment this is turning out to be! IMHO, DYOR

Rastuss, I'd say that Mr. Southam's career is over. He's well and truly shown himself as the oligarchs' stooge. But then, he's likely to make so much money from this he probably wouldn't care too much.

Mr Nova-Nova should change the name of his bid vehicle. This is funny, I just realised, "NO VA" means "No Go" in Spanish. And like the sales of infamous Chevy "Nova" in Mexico never took off the ground, so will this stupid offer fail and will NOT GO unless he ups the price to £10... and changes that egotistic name. LOL

This is a very important point indeed, Rastuss. If they’d called it final, they would be prevented from increasing it by the takeover code. Not calling it final they showed their hand - they CAN increase it further and they are leaving themselves this opportunity, so obviously they are serious about it, they will NOT walk away, and if market demands, they WILL increase the offer further. Well, lets make sure we all tell them clearly - this company is worth £10, so increase your offer to the fair price and call it final!

The so-called “independent” committee bent over yet again. Come on, are you looking after us, minority shareholders, or your own pockets?
780p is NOT ENOUGH!
Stop you scaremongering tactics. If you believe Baimskaya to be so risky, just DON’T develop it, sell it!
The company produces 300kt of copper, soon to be increased to 380kt with the imminent start of Aktogay Phase 2. And it does it at 70 cents per pound. At today’s copper price that translates to EBITDA of $6200 per tonne of copper produced, or $1.9bn for 2021 going up ton$2.4bn in 2022. So Nova Consortium have just offered us 3 times Ebitda for the mines which will operate for 25 years?! Come on, you think we are stupid or what?!
TRY HARDER!
I will not be giving you my shares until I see an offer number starting with a 9 at least. 1000p is what shareholders really deserve. Don’t insult our intelligence Mr Novachuk, Mr Kim, and the Not-So-Independent Committee.

Bid is due tomorrow, it's time to put up or shut up!
We are trading at 770p, so any bid below that is dead in the water. They need to offer at least 10% above, that's 850p, to have any chance of success in securing the required 75% to delist.
What are they going to do? Bid low and give us 60 days (maximum time allowed by the Takeover Code before offer fails) and hope the market will crash in the meantime and shareholder will sell? Or will they bid high and give us 21 days (minimum required time) to accept the offer before the annual report is out on 25th February?
It seems to me the latter strategy would be a wise thing to do. Bid 850p minimum and get this over and done with by end of the month. Will greed prevails though over common sense? We will know in the morning.
GLA

More reports of expectations for an increased bid:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consortium-likely-raise-bid-kaz-153348893.html
"A revision up to 8 pounds will not make the price attractive..."