Member Info for shakhtar

@hash, your turn to be spot on with your last post. Totally agree. You only need to look at how quickly KAZ got the approvals for the deal. A friend of mine in the industry told me it can take anything between a year and two years for a foreign company to get approval to invest in a Russian strategic asset such as Baimskaya. KAZ managed to get this in 3 months, which is like an absolute record for this. I bet you Mr Putin has promised to pay for all the infrastructure which would explain why the company is so confident in this project when everyone hates it. And if this investment by Russian-Chinese-Arab funds is into Baimskaya, that would mean a lot of government and third party money going into this project which would massively derisk it. The share price would fly... But that's a lot of ifs, as Rastuss said, so DYOR as usual.

Agree with your logic Rastuss, sounds like he is talking about something else. Maybe this is not even in copper. Could be nickel or zinc.

George, yes, I am a holder. I don't trade actually. Well, a bit, I hold a core position long term and add or reduce when I feel the price is right. I'm bullish copper, in the long term, and KAZ offers a nice clean exposure to copper with amplified gains (or losses) compared to trading copper itself.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/rdif-russia-china-investment-fund-to-invest-537847.html

Let's hope he is talking about Baimskaya!

I read those comments on today's RNSs and weep - doesn't anyone here know maths? Or read the RNS on tuesday?

Aristus didn't buy anything - clearly those were the shares they received for selling Baimskaya as Tuesday's RNS says. The shares were admitted to trading today.

And neither Kim or Novachuk sold any shares (let alone transferred any to Aristus) - their percentage holding was diluted by the issue of new shares and therefore they had to report the reduction. Anyone with 3% or more has to report a change in holding when it cresses each percentage point.

How are they mixed? Looks very positive to me. Copper, gold, silver are all up on previous quater and at top or above guidance for the year. Only zinc is below but that’s like 4-5% of their revenue, so negligible loss of revenue there compared to gains in all other metals. Very solid performance! Expect it to go up on open.

The deal completed, George, which means they paid the cash already, and issued the shares

Completed. Looks like KAZ decided to go ahead with the acquisition despite the negative reaction. BOD showing strong belief in the project or just being stupid?

Still no news on either of the two proposed acquisition and no news on closing the second phase of the fundraise promised for early october. This begins to smell like a failure to me.

Chartist, so, what happened to your 551/553 position? Still holding or did it get closed out?

DC2007, sorry don’t know, I have a read only access to research on Bloomberg at work. In essence, Citi have a peoprietary cost analysis across seaborne iron ore and pellets and see fxpo as the cheapest among suppliers whilst market continues to favour high grade supply so they see pellet premiums to continue widening. Hence they call fxpo their top pick for exposure to seaborne iron ore. Their worst case unlikely scenario for fxpo is 140 and bullish upside is 400, with TP 280. Usual caveats apply )

They've obviously leaked it to their bank buddies first, who've been piling into this share for at least a week now, and now that the strong run has almost exhausted itself they've released it to the wider audience ))

Whilst I don't think we'll see 280 as there other analysts who think this should be 120, but I agree with the Citi argument and think we should see 240-245 fairly soon.

GLA

That's a very good note from Citi. Very convincing argument and a TP of 280 (with a bull case of 400). Having read the note, I wish now I didn't cut two thirds of my position at 193 a few days ago. Will definitely keep the rest now for longer than originally planned and will add if dips back below 180.

Interesting video. This railroad, if and when built, would pass next to Baimskaya (see map at 4 minutes into the video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd6GxtMdSuA&t=27s

Pipe dream or soon to be a reality?

Sotolo, you ask a very valid question, and it would be interesting to hear a discussion of this.

I think that we are indeed in a long term down trend and I can see POG going to $950 at least, possibly much lower ($700-750). I know it would mean many gold miners operating at a loss (forget about investing in exploration or development), but this has happened before and I don't see anything out there supporting POG from the fundamental standpoint. Quite the contrary, dollar can be expected to strengthen over the next few years, crypto is out there as an alternative asset class (albeit a rubbish one, imho), what is there to support gold demand? Could anyone out there convince me I am wrong?

Whilst I do not miss the minute-by-minute commentary, I did notice the sudden disappearance of a certain poster who kept us entertained over the past few weeks. I just hope his yacht is fine and his awsome share price prediction powers haven't been claimed by the waters of the Adriatic. Or the South China Sea, wherever it is that he's gone on holiday ))

Uncertain, re your post from Monday 21:24 where you talk about £ vs $ POG, what you were saying there was, essentially, that CEY shares are quoted in sterling whilst the company's operating currency is the us dollar (well, at least all revenues and probably half of the operating cost and capex are, with the other half being in local Egyptian pound). This is true for all mining companies listed in London. There is no need to think of it in £ POG terms.

In other words, if you think $ POG stays where it is now, but £ moves from 1.30 today to 1.43, then what you are saying is that today's CEY share price will drop from current 86p to 78p (= 86 * 1.3 / 1.43). It's not quite correct to link this logic to 2016 as you have ignored how Sterling and Dollar and Egyptial pound relationship looked like back then, not to mention inflation in all three between then and now etc. etc.

In summary, I don't quite agree with your logic. Whilst I don't disagree that £/$ movement has an influence on share price, it is not always evident or present. And aside from the whole host of influences I mentioned, the relationship is aslo influenced by such things as technical analysis - all that wonderful support / resistence stuff which is done by reference to the currency shares are quoted in. A lot of investors (traders) rely on TA and this would undoubtedly have influence, further breaking this $/£ logic.

And one must not forget that £/$ moved from 1.43 in May to 1.3 now - this movement has also contributed to share price performance in that period, which should reverse if fx moves back to those levels...

Because I'm a LTH and my recommendation reflects that. I don't care for short term movements. I have been adding since below 500p and will add more if sp drops towards 350p.

Unfortunately have to agree with the shorters on this board (despite being massively long KAZ). We should expect SP to continue going down for as long as copper price is heading down. I think all that talk about the Russian deal causing this is overdone. Yes, it knocked off around two quid from the share price, but the real culprit here is copper price. It accounted for about 400-450p of the sp decline since the £11 high in early June. I did some numbers. Before the deal I reckon every $100/t decline in copper price caused 32p drop in share price. Post deal this is now around 26p. According to my estimates, the current share price discounts an average copper price of $6200/t for the year. I think copper price can move as low as $4800/t but should average around $5500-5700/t over the coming year. This is inevitable, I think, due to escalating trade war and strengthening dollar. That means KAZ could drop towards the 270p-320p trading range, I'm afraid. And if something causes panic and equities fall (as some predict), we could easily hit 140p. Let's just hope I am totally wrong with this miserable short term picture I've painted. Fundamentally copper is in short supply in the long term and if it falls now, mines will not be built which would only mean an even more pronounced move up when it comes eventually. KAZ will run along, down and up, but its fundamental through cycle value should be closer to $10bn, not $3bn (and definitely not $1bn, if it moves that way in the short term)! GLA

Chartist, have you ever considered a career in football commentating? I think you'd be good at that