Member Info for shakeypremis

Indeed.

I don't think SDX can get US$40m together and don't have the future cashflow for debt (yes if they hit with the drillbit but no bank is going to lend on that presumption that they will). Maybe they can get US$20m together and then be left with no money, perhaps it could be done in a kind of payment plan so all money isn't spent at once.

The longer they leave it, the less options they have and less bargaining power and the only option left is wind up company and distribute dividend or try to go for broke in SD and Morocco and maybe just go bust which I am sure the major shareholders won't allow.

Time is of the essence here and these guys are exceptionally slow to do anything and might find themselves painted in to corner if they are not careful. They really don't have years to waste screwing around.

The problem with that, as I keep going on about, is if they do that, say after next year after not drilling or spending anything on CAPEX during 2022, they would have 2/3 years left of reserves in Morocco and production rates in SD that will start to decline from 2023 (and would reach approximately half that of current 8,000boe level by 2025), which is why they must always drill and spend all of their cashflow doing so. You can't really plan any exciting future plans or acquisitions when you are constantly drilling to maintain current production levels, adding a couple years reserves per year if you are lucky. They've not discovered anything new in Egypt since Sobhi in APRIL 2020 and no development wells at Ibn-Yunus do not count, which we still don't know if it flows as of yet do we.

If they then needed to spend all their cashflow in Egypt and Morocco in 2023 like they do mostly every year then they will be doing it with less cashflow than before as SD production would have declined. Then they start eating in to cash....

They need a big hit somewhere and at the moment there is no such target. The 100bcf of prospectivity in SD won't all be hit and is from 6/7 wells (all costing money) and it will take years to drill at SDX's snail space work programme.

I can assure you I will be perfectly civil and we can even have a rational discussion about the merits and negatives and risks of investing in SDX. Then we can stop this nonsense on here.

you too, email me and let's do a zoom/skype or whatever and I'll show you one of my accounts (interactive investor) where I hold some of my SDX stock.

Screw it, email me, I will post it here publicly, I don't care, it's an alias to my main email address and I can delete it afterwards;

daveyg@nym.hush.com

Put your money where your mouth is.

I have pm'd you my email address on advfn, we can do a screenshare and I'll show you why I am so ****ed off.

Can you all stop with the unprovable troll claims and just focus on discussing the company? Even if I am a troll trying to downramp, if this stock wasn't such a dog it wouldn't be affected by someone like me being 'negative' and I guarantee that it is not my cynicism on message boards like this and advfn that is causing this price decline, it's other holders throwing in the towel.

Yes, it could be. It could also not be. I don't know and neither do you. Are people just averse to hearing anything negative these days if it doesn't fit with their bias?

I can't message you on here unless I go premium which I am not going to do. How about Twitter do you have that? Or are you on ADVFN? I can send PMs on there.

You sure about that mate? How much do you want to bet? I will give you my email address and we can set up a zoom and telephone call and you see for yourself. That ought to shut you up.

God help us if they throw in the towel and sell.

I don't really see how Waha/Ingalls can stand this much longer. They are going to have to kick out management or force them to change course because their investments here are being destroyed.

I would buy more if I didn't already have too many and for the fact that this only ever seems to go down (after brief upward spurts).

AP100, I have a right to be negative here. Just look at the share price. There isn't much to be positive about in terms of catalysts to drive share price higher. We can all talk about how undervalued the stock is etc etc but the market does not care.

AP100, I am being objective. I always try to be. That's the only way you'll make money. I put my views on boards like this for some intellectual back and forth about companies, usually all I get is defensiveness and accusations of trolling and other BS. Say what you will, I will keep airing exactly what I think on boards like this. I do the same thing over on CEO.ca, check out my OBJECTIVE posts on Emerita Resouces (EMO.v) who released drill results today. Please desist from ad hominum attacks and simply refute what I've got to say like LuckCounts at least tries to.

Maestro1, I hope that is the case and certainly could be if they stop drilling. Will they? I think it would be prudent to do so at this stage and try to get some extra cash together to try to grow the company inorganically because organically isn't really working at this point.

Yes I am still holding. Not going to sell this at such a low valuation. There is still hope here and turnaround is possible. I would replace management though as they are going to run this in to the ground based on current trajectory.

If 50% of the remaining 100bcf in prospectivity comes in, that gives a little under 3 years of production at 50mmcf/d in SD. How long will it take them to drill 6/7 wells though given how slow they are usually? 1/2 wells per year? By the time they are all drilled we'd already be at reduced gas production in SD.

There's no way they should buy back stock. They need every penny to maybe pay back shareholders a decent amount of their money in dividends or invest in exploration or an acquisition. Buy backs now would be suicidal. You can't do that now when you don't have reserves for more than a few more years of plateau production. If they had 10 years of plateau production at SD left then yes maybe, or preferably a dividend instead.

I am a disgruntled shareholder who is unsure of the way forward given CURRENTLY stated plans. You can keep calling me a troll, and saying that there is 6-7 years of reserves left but given current production profile and SDX's own projectsion there aren't 6-7 years of current production rates. There are two years at best currently and 3 with Mohsen success which is of course far from guaranteed. I am not going to argue with you about that any longer. SDX say themselves what I am saying.

Also, I don't really have faith in this management team. They don't own many shares at all, especially Box and never ever buy any. Reid and Box are in it for the salaries I would say and have a vested interest in stringing things out as long as possible rather than taking any risks and getting the sack. They might decide to take some risks in the future when the writing is nearly on the wall for the company but by that point it might be far too late.

It's my view that the MARKET might be pricing in the possibility that SDX runs out of cash (given current excessive Morocco CAPEX and low production) by say 2025/2026 and can't see any CURRENT reason that will definitely not happen. Production SD may start to decline from 2023 onwards without Mohsen success, which is more likely to fail then be successful given CoS.

Now my own view is that I think they'll come up with some more prospects in SD and hopefully Top Nappe turns out to be good and reduces F&D over there and actually starts to really generate some free cash flow after F&D. And we are backstopped by the possibility of dividends if it's decided to run down the assets.

We've all been saying this is an undervalued company for years but it just keeps going down and we are now in the situation where they MIGHT not find the gas in Egypt to continue the business there. If Salah or Hanut had come in we'd be in a different situation, but neither of them did.

Look, I admitted I made a mistake over on ADVFN regarding Morocco reserves. I confused my notes on reserves discovered in this year's campaign with total reserves. I am getting the production profile from an SDX presentation on South Disouq. Production is forecast to decline from current plateau rate by 2023 and by mid 2024 with Mohsen success.

See here page 9 of October 2020 corporate presentation;

https://wp-sdxenergy-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/10/21133748/SDX-Corporate-Presentation-October-2020-final.pdf