Member Info for shakeypremis

Heading for the 11's, I would never have believed it. Not on the brink as Goldie says but not that many years away from it at present given current identified prospectivity. Each coming year is going to require continued drilling success just to maintain a few years of reserves at current production rates. How quickly can SDX even drill all those remaining targets in SD totalling circa 100bcf? They are so slow at doing anything. 100bcf is not going to come in either, they won't all be successful. I do struggle to see at the present what exactly future upside here is.

Yes drilling is stupid expensive in Morocco, they are using same contractor that Predator are using and are using the same rig I think.

Perhaps I am being a little negative but I still don't see how we change things around here with current catalysts. Current plateau production at SD is not going to be increased now (not without some new large target being identified). Moroccan production isn't going to increase significantly, I don't see Moroccan drilling costs going down unless Top Nappe comes in (which there is no reason to EXPECT that it will). So we are in the same cycle of burning all free-cashflow drilling reserves in Morocco which may show some return on investment eventually, but not likely for years at current rate.

I wouldn't say they have loads of prospects in terms of reserves in SD. They have approximately 100bcf of identified prospects in about 6 wells I think. They aren't going to hit all of them, given COS of each well we are probably looking at less than half of them actually coming in. Now possibly drilling each of them will identify other prospects but that is yet to be determined.

Drilling Mohsen and a successful outcome there adds maybe 2 years max of plateau rate of production at SD, the others will all add less than that, in some cases not much more than half that. Plus it's going to cost a fair amount to drill all of them.

I don't know why they don't acquire some adjacent licenses and get 3D on them, there's got to be some more prospectivity in the region. SDX need a big target to come in and they just don't have any anywhere at the moment.

Another strategy, is offload Morocco (would anyone buy it though with contractual obligations to deliver gas and sod all existing reserves, any buyer would have to be up for drilling for more gas), build up a war-chest of cash in the next few years with SD/WG free cashflow and buy some producing assets that can have their life significantly extended. SDX know how to do that well. There isn't much else they could do with cash other than run down assets and distribute. There's got to be more gas at SD to go after though, perhaps in adjacent licenses. Would the accountants be up for it? Well, if they don't they are going to lose their fat salaries and they don't have any shares so they aren't going to get rich off fat dividends either.

Another problem (simply for the share price is) that investors now know there is nothing exciting happening and nothing value enhancing on the horizon for almost another year. A lot wont wait around and will dump and given the pathetic liquidity here that could easily result in the share price going down even further. I do hope not and I hope investors see the value at the current price, but you have to ask, what value when they spend all free-cash on replacing produced reserves? Cash isn't increasing, reserves are falling (slowly but still falling), are investors going to find that exiting?

Oh for god sake. Look back through history, you will see that I am simply an increasingly disgruntled long term shareholder. If you don't think what I have said is possible and danger regarding F&D costs and diminishing reserves then you don't really know what you are invested in. 5.3 years is not a lot of time and not a lot of reserves at all.

I remember when people bashed me when I said PW was a charlatan.

I've never said this is a hopeless investment. If there was a better vision here this company generates the free-cashflow to self-fund it without dilution. That is exceptionally valuable. The company is treading water at the moment, spending nearly all free-cashflow on drilling, mostly in Morocco simply to replace produced reserves. I don't think the market likes this. It's possible that in a few years the company has several more bad drilling campaigns (like this year's) and basically runs out of gas and then runs out of money.

Well, there goes any chance of most of us getting our money back in the next few years. This company now has zero future production/free cashflow enhancing catalysts. They're going to keep blowing all free-cashflow on Morocco drilling just about replacing produced reserves and the cycle continues.

I don't think Mark and Box are really 'running' SDX per say. Yes day to day etc but as Paul Welch once said, the two top shareholders really have a lot of input (that's Waha and Ingalls & Synder) in terms of direction and strategy etc. If Hanut doesn't come in and there are no mitigating circumstances they are going to all have to re-think the strategy at SDX because at that point there are no (currently identified - at least that we the market know about) real future catalysts.

We've seen these types of movements a lot with this share. Liquidity is low and people trying to buy in ahead of maybe anticipated good news next week can move this share significantly so I wouldn't say it's necessarily indicative of anything.

That's Morocco, not Egypt.

A) this is SDX so temper your expectations
B) they aren't producing 6000 barrels of OIL per day. They are mostly producing fixed price gas, most of which is coming from Egypt where they get absolutely shafted by the Egyptian government and along with them stealing 50% of the production they only pay SDX US$2.65/mcf so it's definitely not as valuable as a barrel of oil an energy equivalent basis. It's still very cash generative however.

No one is manipulating whether a trade shows as a buy or sell. The trade price determines whether it prints as a buy or sell. If the trade price is above the current mid price then it's printed as a buy. If it is below it is printed as a sell. That's all.

Success at Hanut could be the catalyst the share price needs. Although if it's a failure this stock is again likely to be dead money for years.

You feel forced to ask yourself, if Hanut does indeed come in on prognosis and flows well, will the market even be interested? I know I would be. It's still quite a while between start of drilling and expected results so we could actually see some buying coming along shortly.

Yup, make our break time for sure, certainly for the share price anyway medium term. We'd better hope to Christ it comes in.

So far, not much point in sacking him.

Probably go down whatever happens. lol