Member Info for shakeypremis

It's not in Reid's or Box's interest to return any money to shareholders and wind up the company because they both own bugger all shares and would of course then be out of jobs. It's in their interest to try to keep their jobs and salaries for as long as possible and hope to find something decent in Morocco or South Disouq. If the company can get the cash together they might also prolong their existences with an acquisition. So they will most likely elect not to support a dividend distribution and return money to shareholders (because again, they won't get much out of it compared to their yearly salaries), but will instead try to prolong the life of SD and Morocco as long as possible so as to keep their jobs. They have some juicy incentive share options but it looks like achieving them will be almost impossible for SDX so the incentive is to not take massive risk and instead try to keep their jobs for as long as possible.

If Reid can keep his job for another 5 years he'll earn another US$3.2m+, Box will earn another US$1.7m+.

We don't know if they are actually selling out completely. Strange place to sell some stock though if you don't plan to sell out. I don't believe in SDX any more either, although I am willing to wait and see if some cash is added at the end of 2021 and what the actual plans are for 2022 and I will try to quiz management on BNP/Exane's revenue forecasts.

Could be some additional prospectivity in the Qawasim sands though although investigation required;

"Disappointing result, but a return to exploration drilling planned in the area for 2022

The well result is disappointing, however the potential of the Qawasim formation - where good quality sands were encountered - will now be investigated. "

You can get it on Research Tree or from their website I think.

They are forecasting very significant revenue declines from 2023 onwards, just like a certain unpaid internet troll on this board...

It does seem like they are scratching the barrel a little now in SD. Remaining prospectivity is in multiple wells (6-7) and all quite small, Mohsen being the largest. CoS indicates over half will fail. How much money would they waste maybe proving up less than 50bcf? If they did manage to prove up 50bcf (doubtful given CoS) they I think that gives under 3 years production at 50mmcf/d.

Given SD generates very roughly US$12m/year in operating cash flow at current production rates net to SDX, maybe US$33m in operating cash flow from 50bcf discovered minus whatever CAPEX is required to drill, test, connect, develop and sustain production and then that would leave the free cash flow. On the face of it it seems it would be worth going for, especially seeing as they don't have anything else to go for there.

Really no idea. Drilling for gas is not my area, we'll have to leave that up to the company's judgement... I just think they are kind of hamstrung and have to drill. Hopefully there is some free cash flow added to the balance sheet over the next few years which will give some options.

Hopefully also some more prospects are identified in SD and god forbid they pick up some adjacent licenses and try to find more gas in those, you know, do some more exploration??? Because as you say those remaining prospects do look a little bit small, you could waste a lot of money drilling them with 6-7 wells and not get much reward based on size and stated CoS.

Yes and they then put another Waha CEO on the board.

SDX can't return money to shareholders if they want to buy an asset and buying and asset will be very difficult anyway from cash when you aren't generated much/any free cash flow from operations because you spend it all on drilling. I think they can perhaps afford to slow down drilling in Morocco which is higher success than SD but I don't really think they can stop drilling in SD yet. Doing half as many drills in Morocco for one year might allow SDX to generate maybe US$8m in a year in free cash flow to add to the balance sheet along with perhaps some extra from Meseda in Egypt.

Aligning holdings with whom? Ingalls? Ingalls hold shares on behalf of Nikos Monoyio (4.36%) and Dr Valerie Brackett (4.32%) or at least they did according to SDX's significant shareholder register, they changed that to split them out a little while ago. The Ingalls shareholding on its own is currently 10.09%.

I do hope that sale by Waha doesn't mean they are beginning to exit this stock.

Maestro, they aren't aligned with shareholders. They own very few shares, especially box. They have an incentive plan that they know they cannot meet with their current strategy. There are some shares there for them if they can turn things around massively but I don't think they can really do anything. They have to drill and spend all money doing so. I think we can see some small cash build on balance sheet but at the rate it's going it will take them many years to get any significant cash together.

Big smoke, No mate. If its a link you're trying to paste it doesn't work.

Because they get paid US$1m between them and they don't have any shares.

Where are SDX going to get US$30-40m? They aren't going to stop exploration.

Will caveat by saying maybe they could get debt if they were to try to buy a producing asset with it.

Kitting them out money other than their own of course, getting US$1m/year between them, of course they are smiling.

Yup, it's drill and spend most of free-cash flow on CAPEX again. I don't really see what else they can do. They can't really stop exploration and drilling.

I just hope we do start to get some cash build on the balance sheet. They can't get debt, they can't dilute because the market cap is too low. All they can do is keep drilling and hope to add some reserves above production and build a little cash on the balance sheet.

Here's something that will troll you further. Messers Reid and Box's smiling faces talking about today's results. Mr US$650k/year and Mr US$350k/year respectively.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/611f894b0e6e7c49dbb1e273/sdx-energy-h1-results-2021/?popup=true

How about you get this in to yours. STOP USING BoOEs for SDX gas. An equivalent amount of SD gas to a barrel of crude on an energy basis is not worth nearly the same in dollar terms.

Everything I have pointed out is a legitimate concern of mine and probably of some others too.

I am going to continue to express my opinion here and if you don't like it, well tough, I am afraid.

It's been said again and again for years how undervalued SDX is, yet the share price continues to decline. A new strategy is required.

They are nice yes and good to see Morocco production continuing to increase. However 2021 CAPEX now guided to up to $28M and will be all of 2021 operating cash flow fine and therefore no or negative free cash flow and therefore no cash added to balance sheet or even can used from the balance sheet. Cash is now down to only $9.1M, was $10M last year. I see nothing here to suggest the downward cycle in share price reverses. Now we are cheap down here but my now well voiced concern over continued spend of all operating cash flow on CAPEX, continued slow use of cash on the balance sheet and no significant increase in reserves and production looks set to continue. West Gharib may add some production but realistically how much??

The board and management not buying shares really tells you what they think of investing in SDX.

They can save US$1m by replacing Reid and Box, they earn that between them in salaries per year. They don't deserve that much. Yes they'd have to pay some other people but you could get them cheaper than them.