Member Info for shakeypremis

Ah lovely, is that a new all time low today? Sigh.

What Moroccan news??? More small wells in a new area that hasn't been opened up yet? I really hope they aren't still wasting yet more money on paying the Oil Walrus for 'analysis'.

Their time must surely about to be up.

You keep misrepresenting what I am saying. It's good no doubt, it'll help, but it isn't going to turn this company around. After government cut their entitlement share of production (which is what actually counts) will be around 400bopd extra.

It's not a large oil project. They aim to get production back to previous levels. Like I said, it's not going to turn this company around.

I would really hope not. Maybe Mohsen but everything else worthless. Properly scraping the barrel.

What is misleading about stating facts like 80bopd entitlement production??? They are only really ever going to get back to previous production levels in this asset with this drilling campaign. It's worth doing and I'm not suggesting they shouldn't but this company is sinking and this is really the best they have got at the moment. That huge SD CAPEX spend looks like it is going to be ultimately wasted.

Nothing much changes short term, significant cash should still hopefully be added to the balance sheet in the next year or so but I don't want this management team deciding what is done with it. They need to go.

It is most definitely time to sack management and get someone else in for a last ditch attempt and change of strategy to stop this from sinking. South Disouq looks like it is a dead end sadly. Why oh why they haven't acquired additional acreage around the license I don't know. The massive sunk cost of all that infrastructure demands that you try to extend its life. What a bunch of absolute clowns.

No cash added again. Adding cash by end of the year looks highly unlikely given Morocco remaining CAPEX. This is also horrible;

" Following the results from the 2021 drilling campaign, the South Disouq Cash Generating Unit ("CGU") is expected to have a reduced economic life, and consequently the carrying value of the CGU is likely to be impaired by US$6.0 - US$9.0 million. The impairment will be finalised during Q4 2021 as part of the review of the future prospectivity of the concession and the 2021 reserves audit process."

They've revised down unrisked mean bcf of every single remaining target in SD and have also revised down the chance of success for everything. There's basically nothing left worth going for there.

First well will bring about 80bopd net entitlement production to SDX. It's not significant in the grand scheme of things.

Looks like they've already been changing the price previously with no extra money going to producers (certainly not SDX). At the moment the government have the producers over a barrel. The only way the government would increase the price paid to producers is if the producers, for whatever reason, stop producing or cut production down because they can't make money any more. What is more likely to happen first is that cost inflation forces the cost to produce an mcf to rise and starts causing supply disruption. That is more likely than a government like Egypt taking proactive action beforehand to ensure stability of supply. But I guess we'll see what happens.

2000 negative posts? Have a look at the earlier ones. You can see they are positive.

I am not going to engage in this constant mud-slinging. I am going to keep posting my point of view and hope for some constructive engagement. Sure criticise my take on things, that's fine, but do it in a civil and logical way (if you can).

The reason I don't post on other shares on this site is because I only have a few other UK listed investments (Adriatic Metals, Cornish Metals and Spectra Systems). I invest much more in non-UK listed stocks, mainly on the TSX. I find much more constructive dialogue on Canadian boards where these stocks are concerned and also Twitter.

Can you stop with the appeal to authority non-arguments? I could just as easily say, why is the share price at odds with 3 analysts estimates? Who is right? I am getting a lot of my assessment FROM said analysts. BNP for one say at the current time that SDX will generate negative FCF in 2023 because Morocco production stops. I didn't state that, they did.

Do you have your own opinion or do you simply repeat what analysts say? The analyst assessments are based on exploration success which as we all know isn't guaranteed. I am looking at what is known and realistic now.

Littlened, I want to see a use of capital that can kind of guarantee production. Say an acquisition. Of course they've left that a bit too late now given the oil price but perhaps they can pick up another gas asset in Egypt (given ****ty fixed gas price) or some oil asset off a major looking to divest (but they don't have the cash or future cashflow at the moment for much at the moment).

They're painted in to a bit of a corner. Morocco production stops dead in 2023 (I am sure they will find more and stave off the end there for another year or something) and SD production starts declining in 2023. If they do an acquisition now (which they don't have the money for and can't get debt for) they have no cash and can't explore and open themselves up to bankruptcy if something goes wrong somewhere. in 2023 they will maybe have US$20m or so and maybe **** all production (probably not but at the moment, without further exploration success that's what the reserves indicate). They will have to spend money on exploration to continue production but then they can't buy anything.

I don't really know what they can do other than continue with current strategy, but I am not in charge of the company and don't have knowledge of what might be possible.

Luckcounts, you are not factoring in government take. SDX have a 50% WI and then of the 50% net to them the government take circa 50%. So entitlement production is more like 25%. It sucks but that is Egypt for you.

I want to see something of substance and I want to see a bit of a change of strategy.

Come on guys. This isn't going to move the needle. It's accretive and worth doing but it's going to take up two years basically to eek an extra 1500bopd (maybe 400bopd entitlement production) from this asset. We're gonna need something more to get us out of this rut.

*if

Lol ~80bopd entitlement production of the well hits and produces at 300bopd gross.