Member Info for shakeypremis

Company doesn't produce much oil as a percentage of current cash flow. With the Meseda drills, oil cash flow should be a more appreciable part of free cash flow.

It's not a huge amount of shares. Something like 400,000. Nothing really. Some of us own that much or more. The moved down from 5.14% to 4.93%.

I wouldn't assume to get a response. But seeing as it's not a tough question and is not questioning something negative about the company he might well answer.

Box might reply to you via email if you email him regarding cost recovery terms in Egypt. I won't give you his email address but you can find it at the below link (just search for 'box');

https://www.ebrd.com/work-with-us/projects/psd/52261.html

Someone had to sell those shares for someone to buy them and vice versa. It doesn't matter. All that matters is the trade price. And that is going up for once. Hopefully SDX will continue upward with the rest of the oil sector. Maybe this Meseda stuff and the extra oil SDX should now produce - as you have to remember they are essentially a fixed-price gas business - is making the market take notice? Big seller finished? No idea. Combination of factors? Too cheap? Just hope it keeps rerating and we get other good news from Morocco this year and South Disouq.

This is actually holding and indeed going up. Yes other oil stocks are holding and going up but this is SDX. It usually just goes down whatever happens. Perhaps we may have turned the sentiment corner?

But you must still account for production sharing agreement.

I also don't think that every extra dollar in oil price increase goes straight to bottom line. Some old SDX presentation will explain that.

One good thing about Egypt though is that there is cost recovery. So if you get an economic well and produce it you can recover the cost of the CAPEX from the Egyptian government. They probably won't pay you on time but eventually you should get it.

Sorry I realise you have accounted for working interest. My apologies to you there.

4000bopd GROSS production. Entitlement production after 50% working interest and then after "Egyptian government circa 50% production *sharing* agreement" leaves them with circa 1000bopd entitlement production.

You must understand that SDX only have a 50% interest in Meseda and then that 50% interest is effectively diluted by another 50% due Egyptian production sharing agreement. That's why Meseda currently makes little money, a few million in free cash flow per year and will not make the crazy predictions on this board once production gets up to 4000 bopd GROSS because GROSS is not the same as entitlement production. That said, boosting free cash flow from Meseda to around US$12-14m per annum is going to be very welcome.#

Once you understand I am right about the above perhaps you might start to take some other things I say with a bit more credibility. If you are investing in SDX without understanding the Egyptian oil and gas sector production sharing arrangements (sharing is the wrong word because it's just outright theft) then do you really understand the SDX business there? No you don't. Plus failing to account for Working Interest which is even more obvious.

Darienttaylor, they do not own the Mesda/Rabul assets 100%. They own 50%, their partner Dublin petroleum owns the other 50%. Then you have to factor the government take 50% of each partner's stake so effective ENTITLEMENT production attributable to each partner is around 25%. So no, SDX will not net US$50m per year lol. It'll be more like US$12.5m. You can all **** me off all you want and call me a downramper but some of you don't understand how the oil and gas sector works in Egypt.

This should hopefully have a better year this year. If the oil price holds up I don't see why not. Maybe a gas find in Egypt and something happening in Morocco to add some extra upside. Very vulnerable to failure/downside in all those areas though. High risk/high reward bet at this stage.

You are confusing BCF (billion cubic feet) with mbbls (which is actually 1000 barrels of oil as opposed to million which I think you might actually mean). Completely different and even more different when you consider SDX is forced to sell the gas dirt cheap in Egypt.

They are messing around with Warda and the other wells because it's all they've got. Shikbala deep *could* be a half decent prospect to go for with P90 case of a little over two years worth of gas at 50mmcf/d however they won't go for it even if they think it's a valid prospect until they've secured the adjacent acreage which they don't currently have. Who knows how long that will take.

When are we going to here about these new Moroccan ventures? That and the extra cash flow that they'll hopefully get from Meseda/Rabul wells are the only things this company has going for it at the moment with the Egypt drills being the only thing of actual substance that might come to fruition. Any 'plans' they have for Morocco should be taken with a pinch of salt until we see something concrete. Laurel and Hardy do not have a good track record when it comes to saying they have plans for Morocco. They have never materialised so far.

Merry Christmas to all. Here's hoping for a better year next year, in all things.

In times like these I feel it is important to reflect on those of us in society who are less fortunate that others. The homeless, the poor, the destitute and also Mark Reid and Nicholas Box who only have US$1m between them for the year plus additional management fees totalling over US$1m. How reminiscent of Tiny Tim's Christmas theirs's will be this year....

Good news. Late but still good. On it's own this well doesn't move the needle and it still needs to flow but these wells in MSD and Rabul always seem to so that's probably not much of a concern. A few more of these wells and we are looking at significant extra free cashflows (assuming CAPEX predictions for 2022 remain the same).

UKOG once again valued at more than SDX. That tells you just how lowly the market values SDX. UKOG is a complete basket case dilution machine and still worth more than SDX.

I am not a deramper. I am not a paid deramper.

With that out of the way, I do point out the positives here and the potential. The problem is that all seems to be nullified by sentiment here and managements' poor record here and lack of any clear plans for the future. At least short term I don't expect sentiment to improve here and attract new buyers. Longer term, the fundamentals should move this back up even without new management. Cash on the balance sheet cannot be ignored. BUT, only if management here don't spend it all without significantly adding to NAV and NPV as they have done in the last few years. That needs to not happen otherwise I don't see why this doesn't continue down. Depleting reserves and stagnant/depleting cash, it can only go one way.

This is less than 2% of my portfolio. It doesn't make me lose sleep at night. But I would like the potential here to be realised. I would buy in this situation as a value and turnaround story if I didn't already own a bunch here.

Littlened, how about you email management and ask them about the US$1.1m of 'internal management time' instead of bashing me? I would but I know they won't talk to me any more.

Oh for god's sake. Keep bashing me with the same stick. I am downbeat on the company because of the downward trend that has been in place for years. I am upbeat in the sense that a different management team and a new strategy and better communications could do a lot with the free cash flow that *should* be hitting the balance sheet in 2022 and 2023.

There is lots to be positive about here, but when will it ever be realised? All it is going to take for the above referenced free-cash flow to be wasted and for the downward spiral to continue here is more of the same from the same management team. I don't think they will be that stupid but who knows.

Maybe none of them are really? It could just be PIs. The volume is small. From time to time one of the smaller significant holders will sell down as they too realise this is a basket case and then another will take their place.