Also translated from e-mail..25 Oct 2014 23:37
Good afternoon
Kallpa Securities SAB updated valuation of Maple Energy Plc. model (Maple or MPLE) with a recommendation to keep. Our new fundamental value (VF) by the action of MPLE of $0.100 (less than our previous $0.240 VF) is in line with the market price of US $0.100, at the end of October 23, 2014.
We update our Maple model to incorporate a new vector of prices of ethanol and to conduct an analysis on the two proposals which are known so far to inject capital into the company.
Similar to our previous report, we consider as the stage base an emission of shares for US $50 MM at a price of $0.20 per share. Although the proposal of Alcogroup and Graña y Montero was already approved by the Board, do not assume it as given that it has not been approved by the shareholders of Maple.
We use the methodology discounted cash flow to the firm with a horizon of 10 years and a discount rate of 11.40%. In addition, we assume a perpetuity without long-term growth.
What has changed in our model?
q we reduce our estimated price of ethanol, in expectation of lower world demand and increased supply.
-Forwarded Message Attachment -
q increase net of US $175.5 MM to $191.2 MM debt, according to the balance sheet of the company to June 2014.
q we reduce the p net loss expected for 2014 and 2015 - $15.1 MM and - $9.6 MM, US $31.0 MM and - US $14.1 MM, respectively. This at the lowest price of ethanol, minor AC yields a and suspending n of operations at the plant of ethanol for 12 weeks to be carried out in the 2S2014.
Analyse the two proposals for Maple estimate that our VF be of: i) $0.067 by acci n Alcogroup and Gra proposal a and Montero; and, ii) $0.190 by acci n with the Maple Resources. We conclude that, even if the first transaction n will have to alg n upside for the expertise that contribute to Alcogroup in the management of assets of ethanol and financial of Gra back to y Montero, offer Maple Resources (not approved by the Board of Directors of Maple Energy) ends up being m s attractive to offer m s value by acci n MPLE.
For these reasons we have previously reduced our VF to $0.100, and reiterate our recomendaci n keep.
Best regards,
Good afternoon,
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