Trial Results Prediction25 Apr 2020 11:30
Here's my current thoughts, FWIW.
All quotes "" are from the 23/04/20 interview, which IMO supports my ideas if you read between the lines (but without confirmation bias!).
The bottom line is that, unlike some here, I don't think these results will be black or white, I think they'll be a mixed bag, and probably not conclusive. RM: "Conclusive is a strong word" and "When we get the data we'll sit down and discuss that with the agencies."
Firstly, I think it may be successful for some of the targeted co-morbidities but not all. I wouldn't want to guess which ones, though chronic lung condition seems an obvious good bet.
Secondly, I agree with the consensus here that it will be most successful for those treated very early in the progress of the illness. "It's such an important first response." But that's where there's an obvious problem with a hospital-based trial. Right now, no-one wants to go anywhere near a hospital unless and until they're feeling seriously ill, meaning that the immune system is already active. So it will be difficult to get the treatment started early enough. Worst case is that late treatment with SNG001 might even have a negative effect, because of the ACE2 issue*.
A home-based trial would therefore stand a much higher chance of getting the treatment applied early enough. Hence what seems to be a switch of emphasis:
"It would be fantastic to get the drug into at-risk people, in the home environment when they first develop symptoms. This is going to require some technological steps, and some creative thinking ..."
It certainly is, because how on earth can you be sure that trial participants at home are doing things properly?! Online supervision perhaps? Or here's an idea from Mrs SGD27: target nursing/care homes, where there would be qualified people available to supervise.
"We just work very hard at putting the drug in the right context to make sure it gets tested properly, because what we don't want is a grey result, we want to get definitive data as quickly as possible so that the drug can move towards approvals as quickly as possible."
To me this sounds like an aspiration, rather than an expectation for the pilot phase of the first trial. But no doubt other interpretations are possible; only time will tell.
I really am optimistic for the long-term future of this company, and like RM am hopeful that SNG001 "could work out to be really really helpful". But it may be a longer ride than some are anticipating.
AIMHO, GLA, DYOR, GSOH, etc,
SGD27 (My background: sci/tech but not bio. I've held SNG shares since 2016, and added a substantial chunk during the December low. Last week I derisked by selling a large fraction, under pressure from Mrs SGD27 and having read the ACE2 research. Currently holding 100k.)
* Not familiar with the ACE2 issue? You need to :
(a) Admonish yourself for inadequate (or confirmation-biased) research!
(b) Read the original paper :
https://www.cell.com/cell-host-mi
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