Member Info for SGD27

Anyone got them yet? I'm still waiting for Hargreaves Lansdown to sort it out.

This looks like the big one we've been waiting for!

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3517881/Stamp-coin-specialist-Stanley-Gibbons-raises-13m-share-placing-pay-debts-boost-growth.html

~£30m mcap seems to be holding up OK, touch wood. I imagine over the next couple of weeks there will be a constant nibbling at the SP, with people selling a few existing shares to free up funds to buy the new ones at 10p ("tail-swallowing"); but perhaps larger buyers will be happy to hoover these up? If the SP does hold, then I'll probably also apply for the "Excess Entitlements" (see RNS), but I'm not expecting that to come to much.

It does seem ridiculous though. The RNS was 7am, so people had just 1 hour to read through the RNS, note the date, go to another document to find the time, then adjust any stop-losses or buy-requests. Is this normal?! There did seem to be a lot of cancelled trades appearing yesterday - I wonder if that's related? Or have I just misunderstood? Any experts out there - help please!

Finally found it : http://www.stanleygibbonsplc.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/dlm_uploads/Placing-and-Open-Offer-Circular.pdf So it was 8am. Very annoying as I didn't realise I was buying ex-entitlement yesterday. That'll teach me to read through all the small print in future, and only ~1p down at least. Apologies if I've caused anyone else confusion.

I just got round to reading through yesterday's lengthy RNS in detail, and eventually came across this, under the "EXPECTED TIMETABLE OF PRINCIPAL EVENTS" : "Existing Ordinary Shares marked 'ex' entitlement by the London Stock Exchange 14 March" But they don't give the time of day! So I confess to being confused now, but presumably we're already ex-entitlement? The SP appears to have been similarly confused.

Hi CarpeDiem1, Yes, of course your guess as to where the mcap will end up is as good as mine, probably better. I'm not very good at valuing a company from scratch myself, so I'm just taking my cue from Griffiths, Henderson etc. who seem to see some value here. Looking at the pattern of trades over the last couple of days, there does seem to be a slight tendency towards larger buys mixed with smaller sells. As you say, there may be investors panicking and rushing for the exits, but perhaps the larger organisations are happy to hoover up at this price? ATB

Clarification: when I say "same as it was last week", I mean having added in the new £13m which is being raised.

Hi Stupot, No, I'm putting the mcap at £30.5m, same as it was last week. Let's explain this again, now that we know the open offer ratio is 10:8. If I have 10 shares @ 23p, then I can buy another 8 @ 10p. So I've paid 310p for 18 shares, which is 17.2p per share. 17.2p x (47m + 130m) shares = mcap £30.5m We don't know yet when the ex-rights day will be, but if the SP is ~23p the day before, then it will drop to ~17p on the day. (NB Anyone using stop-losses needs to be aware of this!) I really hope most people already understand how this works. ATB

Well, this is interesting. The emotional part of me now hates this share. But the rational part of me thinks that the "correct" (I refuse to use the word "fair") SP should now be ~23p, for the reasons I've already given. So I've just added 14,000 @ 18p. I hope it doesn't turn out to be as stupid as my original buy. GLA

So we now have our answer for the ratio of new placing shares to old, it's 0.8. Plug that into the formula I posted on Friday and you get 23p, which just happens to be where the SP is now. Two observations: 1. It's a very poor deal for existing shareholders - very deep discount with only a small fraction offered to existing shareholders. 2. We didn't have the 0.8 information on Friday, but it appears as if enough people did for the SP to move accordingly. On the face of it, dreadful. Just my immediate reaction. DYOR.

Just to clarify, here's a simplified version : "Tomorrow" (ex-rights) it will cost 34p for 2 shares, because they will be 17p each. Today it will also cost 34p for 2 shares, but you'll buy one for 24p in the market, then be able to buy another one for 10p. This assumes a 1:1 ratio for the rights. If that's different then today's market price should be different. Of course real-life sentiment will change all this, but it's worth knowing how the price is expected to jump on ex-rights day. The real problem here is that they seem to have rushed out the RNS because the price was already falling, looking a lot like a leak. But then they've only given us partial information, so now it's impossible to understand what today's SP really means! My guess/hope is they'll now try to get a "complete" RNS out ASAP for this very reason. ATB

While I'm at it, I might as well turn it around and work out what today's price should be for different N. A quick bit of algebra gives: 17.25p x (1+N) - N x 10p (using JohnLaw's 17.25p ex-rights price). So for example: N=1 : 24.5p N=2 : 31.75p N=3 : 39p Here's a consistency check: if we were being offered our full fair share of the new shares, then N would be 130m/47.12m = 2.759. Putting that in the formula gives 37.25p, which is the same as yesterday's price. Of course the effect of sentiment is slightly harder to calculate ;-) Usual caveats, DYOR, ATB.

Because of the rights, today's share at ~24p is effectively (1+N) shares for (24p + N x 10p). So the ex-rights price is : (24p + N x 10p) / (1+N) The problem is, we don't know what N is! But we can try examples : N=1 : 17p N=2 : 14.7p N=3 : 13.5p As you say, this should be ~17p. So it looks like the market is only expecting N ~ 1? That would be disappointing. (Hope I've got this right - perhaps others could check...)

Thanks, Wisecrow, that all makes sense. I suppose 3:1 would risk oversubscription (> 130m:47m) but perhaps they wouldn't mind that? At least it's slightly reassuring that H & RG must think there's some value here.

Storm, I'm guessing it only makes sense if today's shares carry the right to buy new shares. (But how many new per old, that's the question?)

I hope so. From the previous RNS : "As previously announced, the Board intends that the fundraising will be executed in a manner that recognises the pre-emption rights of existing shareholders insofar as is possible."

Also Richard Griffiths now at 8.60% (7.86% + 0.74% CFD) : http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article/id/5223690 LSE appear to have mislaid today's earlier RNS (at 10:48, re Henderson holding) but it's here : http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article/id/5223667

And now 17.03%, as of the holdings RNS just in. I wonder if their target is 20%? Anyone have any thoughts on what they're up to?