Member Info for Serif

Did anyone get to go to the AGM and if so was there any update on state of play re ongoing activity? The rns makes no reference to any presentations or updates appearing on the website.

Could you go to market and get the CEO you would want by Xmas? Think you would have to have someone in mind and lined up already to know you could achieve that.

When CEOs are pushed they usually leave at once, but here Hugh is staying “as an employee” until end of the year to do a handover. So it doesn’t look like a fall out. So why they quoting a change of strategy as the reason for the change? And is that handover to Simon (would he need one?) or is someone else lined up already?

Just noticed it’s exactly a year since the rns announcing the placing and the news on the major’s interest in our licences. It’s certainly a slow burner!

Not an excuse, clearly states in GOV.UK that at election time any contentious planning appeal decision will not be published until after the election. If the 6 week publication rule applies that should mean the result will be out between 13-20 Dec.

Now appeared as a press release on their site and good news for EOG. Very clear that all EOG licences/applications are not to be affected in any way by the ban and that the Gov is focusing on Gas exploration for future licensing rounds. Still not completely clear how you explore for gas without perhaps finding oil, but that not of immediate relevance to us. Let’s hope they now move on more quickly and grant some of these permits.

RNS says that second consultation on Inishkea permit finished on 13 Oct - it was actually on 13 Sept, which means that it is almost 7 weeks that DCCAE have sat on this now without making a decision. Very slow by any standards.

Tac, completely agree. Think that speed at every turn is now vital both here and in Ireland. We need to get planning permissions, permits, licences signed off at the earliest possible opportunity, before other political developments ((e.g. elections in UK and Ireland?) throw up more unpredictable obstacles. Every month of delay invites more potential problems. Although it’s probably much further off, would probably be wise to have the same mindset for Morocco from the start!

Jus’s update on the other board says that Exxon, Equinor and EOG are all talking about the Porcupine at this conference. Should be interesting especially with any post Iolar insights, and a chance to gauge continuing level of interest in the Porcupine area. Hopefully EOG will be taking this opportunity to chivvy along our potential majors! Would also be an ideal opportunity for any further clarification from Irish Gov about how “gas only” future licences might work in practice. Does anyone know if there is a way we get to hear what is being said at this conference?

The reference to this policy clarification “memo” to be brought to the cabinet “over the next month” is in the Irish Times article tweeted by EOG on 27th September.

Yes there has been clarification that current licences are not included, but there is also meant to be a wider Gov policy paper about what the ban on issuing further permits actually means. I am guessing that any major thinking of investing in the area may want to see what further opportunitiies they could go on to develop, and probably just want to see something in black and white rather than ambiguous statements at UN conferences. It may depend if they are just interested in Inishkea alone or have wider ambitions. I think the paper when it comes could be a positive for EOGs position. Just frustrating that it’s another thing that’s taking its time to appear.

Tac, I think the political situation still needs some clarification - we were meant to get a statement from the minister sometime this month spelling out what the future ban would mean in practice - haven’t seen anything yet. And we are still waiting for approvals on our survey permits, so there is a lack of clear action to back up their statements from the Irish Gov at present, which could be a factor in the delays.

Yes I suppose we may see some delayed sales but they will need to be quite big to work so much against all the buys. And we do seem suddenly to have started using these very small steps of 0.02 for some reason with a tight spread. Movements just seem a bit unpredictable at the moment - I seem to remember us dropping after the Varadkar UN speech 20-30 points or more, but then not seeing this matched by our competitors in Ireland nor the sales subsequently showing to explain this drop.

Seems to take millions of shares bought to get the SP moving even a fraction up, but a couple of 100k sales only to move it down by more, when buys on the day still greatly outnumber that! Anyone any ideas what could explain this?

Agreed Tac, hugely better than the average interview and asking some of the questions that actually drew out more helpful answers. Can we get this guy to do more of these in the future? While I am sure that some will see this as just more words (and of course that’s true!) I thought the following was useful information:
- Confirmation that current licensing options as well as full licences would still be honoured by Irish Gov - we have one of these still in for conversion
- parties (plural) are interested in Inishkea besides the major and some competitive pressure is emerging - likely good for our position and speed of farm in
- the odds at Wressle are very strongly pointing towards approval and possibly with quicker outcome because simpler inquiry
- if approved Wressle should be on line by summer 2020 and put our revenue between £3-4m
- Morocco work is fully funded from last years fund raise for first phase -( so I would speculate that if timings work out, for any subsequent costs of works here we should have wressle income by then to offset)
- EOG have capacity to work Morocco without lessening up on Ireland - (prob a case of making fuller use of in house resources now that most research work done on Ireland)
- there is already some interest from others in our Morocco licence and we will go for a farm in early if we can
- Clearer focus on share price - any farmin will bring £1m in back costs and with a go ahead on wressle should move the share price to double figures (a bold statement I thought but with the caveat “although the market will do what it does”).

All words, but clearer and more purposeful than usual IMO.

At the mid price might it just be brokers moving shares between themselves after such large buys in the day?

Supplementary information from EOG was uploaded on DCCAE site earlier this week for Edgeworth and Kiely, giving a new finish date for the next consultation of 30 Oct - so we are still progressing these permits. Vermillion also got a response on their permit for Corrib maintenance - mixed result, an all clear on the Environmental Impact but with the Appropriate Assessment going out to yet another consultation until 6 Nov (this process looks designed to cause delays - can’t think who there’s left to consult!). Based on previous DCCAE response times think that the Inishkea permit should get a response next - may be by end of next week. Just hope we don’t get pushed into yet another consultation delay.

Sorry Tac, can’t read that without gmail. Are you able to say what it’s about?

Someone’s woken up - the SP is finally responding!

Anyone got any idea what may be happening here? Just had a huge buy of over 8 million shares and in total are over 10 million up on the day, but not a flicker on the SP!