Member Info for Serif

Hi Tacuma, doubt its you being dumb more likely that you are going to have to help me out here as I could easily have got the wrong end of the stick and/or fundamentally misunderstood how blocks work! The latest EOG presentation (date 16 June) shows us acquiring the block from DNO but it is actually labelled CNOOC 3/19 - and we are talking about acquiring the Edge prospect which the CNOOC survey application is all about. DCCAE list block 3/19 as DNO 20% with CNOOC as 80% operators. Have I jumped to a false conclusion over what we have actually acquired when it says we are now 100% owners of 3/19 which contains the Edge prospect?

I see that the CNOOC application for their Edge survey had its EIA and AA approved by DCCAE end of last week, so it is presumably in same state as Inishkea survey, just waiting now for Ministerial approval. Curious to know if we now can “inherit” this permission once the sale gets formal approval.

Something seems to be putting positive pressure on the SP - just no idea what that is yet!

Tac, always hard to know for sure, but there was a rash of large sells in 250 to 500k range on (if I remember right) 9/10 June, immediately followed by their notification of holding dropping from c4.8% to under 3% - with the threshold being crossed on 10th June just after the last large sell. So was putting these two together, but am open to other explanations. In any case, looking forward can never tell if people are selling out or just reducing exposure etc., so no guarantee of future sells at this level - had just made me wary of investing at this level especially with a 40% spread (thought there might also be some connection between these points).
Todays movement is very welcome especially if we can sustain the bid at this higher level as it would provide some reassurance that there is not this particular large seller about- and maybe we could be getting enough liquidity through increased trading volumes to see the back of these ridiculous spreads - now wouldn’t that be a positive!

Good rise in the bid this morning. Fingers crossed that the Newlands have sold what they want for now as we could then be in for a decent rise if oil keeps firming.

Yes, so long as Wressle comes in broadly along expectations, it’s not clear how much more crashing on this share could take place!

Rob this is reporting shorthand for a ban on issuing new licences not a Government statement - so we need to be clear what the Government is actually saying in the first place before drawing conclusions, but we know what it meant last time - future equals future licences. We should also be aware how this may be presented in the short term in getting agreement through the various Gov parties and then see what happens in practice when they are making decisions about running the country. Do they:
- get rid of gas completely in next 5-10 years for which no one has a plan
- import more Russian gas funding environmental damage in Russia and the Artic not to mention monopoly supplier and strategic concerns
- import LNG through some shipping means with transport carbon costs and questions about origin (some of the worries that sank the Shannon terminal)
- or extend life of indigenous gas supplies using current infrastructure to cover needs over next 15 years or so (Corrib).

Yes, as with the end to oil exploration announced last year I think this refers to the issuing of future licences for exploration. Last year the Gov confirmed that the oil ban it didn’t apply to current licences, which means that if you have a licence it may play out to your advantage, so long as there are companies interested in extracting the gas in current licences. This Green policy has long been announced as a condition for Gov and won’t be a surprise to EOG.

Yes agreed improvement on last time - he doesn’t seem a natural PR man! Useful update. Not overselling when asked about timescales for farmouts interest in current environment. Also clarified that Morocco desk work was continuing and positive, which wasn’t too clear previously after Covid rns. Wressle on schedule and for now it seems all about getting this revenue up and flowing to underpin everything else.

I see that CNOCC have a survey application out on the Edge prospect, which I presume is what we have just acquired. This has been strung out in consultations as long as ours on Inishkea. Anyone know if we can just take this application on from where has got to (if we want to) or would have to start again?

Not sure what anyone could say about Irish politics at present - no one knows anything! Overall looks a good opportunistic acquisition, which does not increase our risk/costs significantly, but could greatly increase the reward. The big unknown remains likelihood of farmouts, and if this does anything at all to help with that, that would be another big plus. Also see it as a positive that there is activity going on within our current means.

Think there is another temporary problem with the SP - epic almost 40% spread and a query on whether there may be a 12m share overhang if the Newlands are exiting rather than simply reducing exposure. Simplest way to address this could be Directors buys which would signal their confidence in the moves they are making and that they see quick share price recovery. Otherwise asking a lot of PIs to buy into such a spread and overhang.

Don’t think this share is alone, I think that the whole sector has bounced back, once it got over negative oil prices and the forecasts of $10 oil for the foreseeable future proved to be wild nonsense after a couple of weeks.

And just see what small amounts you can buy.

Thanks for posting, Beacon. Useful to have some SP figures put against potential developments and in highlighting the potential in phase 2 of Wressle. A positive development and showing a potential way forward - which could certainly be attractive to new investors at current price. Now would like to hear from Simon about his plan, as Wressle can only form part of this if we are to get beyond these still relatively modest increases.

Yes some signs of life - and we seemed to ride out the couple of big sells without setting us back. Maybe some of the “stale bulls” exiting which someone referred to the other day - which is probably a relief all round to clear the air!

Ujo buying out Humber must be a vote of confidence from them in the value of Wressle. I see from EDR BB that Humber have been keen to get out of their UK oil assets, so this presumably given us the very minimum of the current value range for Wressle.

Well here’s hoping the oil price continues to strengthen this week as it can only be good for eog and it’s SP.

Which makes our current Chairman and our senior NED the only smart people around here - so perhaps we should be optimistic about their leadership!

I would be over the moon with anything near 10p which is beyond my wildest dreams at present - but I do think we could be in a much better place by the end of the year with Wressle on stream - barring any silly mistakes. Would be interested to know what BB contributors (both optimists and pessimists!) think is a realistic range/increase for the SP if we get a reasonable farm in to Inishkea on top of Wressle production this year?

At last some positive movement and opening up!