Member Info for Serif

Depends how good a deal you want. Vermilion have made it clear they want both existing licences developed if possible. If you want to get the best deal you don’t commit yourself to the sole option in town unless you need their support e.g. for a licence renewal. If Ireland opens up then Vermillion know they may be bidding against others which strengthens eog negotiating position - either way they want it developed as it makes no sense for them to put all their investment on the one option of Corrib South alone, when they could have two extra (and better researched) prospects in Inishkea. Imv sensible for eog to appear to keep options open.

VL, since Finch decision planning law re extraction of oil and gas is such a complete contradictory mess in this county that personally I wouldn’t waste any more money on UK assets unless it was proved to be a money maker like Wressle. Its only the farm outs that count at this stage - so I’d spend nothing until I had one of those over the line. If they succeed with this, then developing Cloughton might (just might) have value worth going for.

Itsawrap - from memory the video was 2 Dec so he can’t have been talking about Dec figures - my guess is we are going to see something for both months in the 300-330 range - unless there was downtime in Nov. I can’t get Wressle below 300bopd on the figure of 124bopd given here and I would generally go on an rns figure than something said in a video by an “ex Director”!

They also seem to be avoiding Capex on Wressle and Cloughton until H2. Makes sense as means they will know if farmouts on EG and Ireland could provide the funding rather than the alternative of financing Wressle by debt against production. Doubt they would actually get necessary permits much earlier in any case.

Itsawrap - doesn’t 125 bopd for December suggest a much higher figure for Wressle than the 250bopd being touted? Perhaps closer to 350bopd much in line with earlier months? Did AS simply “misspeak” or have Dec figures recovered?

@Wraith. I suspect you are right about timescales, but after the info in that presentation I am now expecting (rather than just hoping for) a farmout on Inishkea this year. Think from what he said Irish Gov will be sufficiently supportive and that Vermillion (presumably) will be keen to farm in to any of the remaining licences.

Original video now been turned private so the link I had doesn’t work anymore. If it helps (and from memory) the gist of what he said in the first extract was -

“one of the Corrib partners had sent him AND the Department of Environment an outline proposal to farm in on authorisation of next licence phase”

Second extract - last 4 months there had been more momentum around Corrib/energy security issues than he had seen in previous 7 years - and he was confident that the energy security issues were prominent ..

If I have misrepresented any of this - apologies - I no longer have access to video. Perhaps someone who does could correct or add to if relevant?

My own take around the first extract is that PRD were concerned that Ryan would use the “lack of finance for works”clause to reject - so Corrib partner had supported to keep it in play.

This is the link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9bpAhjwyu4

Worth listening to the Ireland sections at 31.47 and 1.01.50. Thought the second of these sounds positive for progress. Would be good to hear whether Eog have a similar take.

Probably just cost cutting - but maybe one day we’ll get an rns about adding value to the business.

He has a whiteboard but he lost the pens early last year, which has stopped them recording any progress since then.

Don’t tempt fate - we’ll get another presentation.

Think I also saw that the US company trying to build the LNG plant had recently gone belly up - so there probably isn’t anyone even trying to build this theoretical LNG facility at present.

2019 programme was full of energy policies, bans and the evils of fossil fuels. This programme sidesteps the issue completely, which should mean policy gets set by commercial, security and funding needs rather than ideology. Let’s see who gets the portfolio.

So costs, free carry on a $45m drill and something around 20% retained would be a good result to aim for? Although on IW figures even 10% would be worth over 25 times current MCap. Huge numbers - just need new Gov to form and signal intent to put it back on the table..

They don’t need to drill a well on Inishkea in Phase 1, only commit (and show they have the resources via a farmin partner) to fund a well to enter Phase 2. They have 13 months left on current licence to do that - which should be plenty of time once the new coalition show their hand on energy policy. And that’s looking better than it has for years - but it’s still down to the politics.

@B. I’m just glad that one of our big investors is taking an interest and that he brings a shareholder view to the business decisions.

I never trust these mark ups on late buys - price didn’t change and we will probably see it unchanged tomorrow morning but “marked down” by a similar amount. Still MMs seem to be sticking with the 1p buy price, so we are almost at the giddy heights of being a penny share again.

Roll on next month and the appointment of ministers - that should show where their interests lie.

Good luck with whatever you are pursuing, imv never worth letting an investment get you down. Fwiw lse seems to be showing a little over a million bought today and less than 100k sold.

Thanks, Flombo - that’s more like it. I call that a good swap for Ryan! Let’s see who gets what in the new Government.