Member Info for Serif

I wonder with the number of chunky sales over the past few weeks whether we will see any notifications of holding thresholds being crossed - would seem an odd coincidence if this was several different parties deciding to sell in these chunks.

Anyone got any ideas on why we have only seen the Inishkea survey appear as a consultation as yet - and no sign of the other 2 planned surveys? Wouldn’t it make sense to complete them all in one go? Should we read anything into holding back on the others?

Catching up re the weekend developments, and relieved to see Iolar getting the green light, as it would have been a real blow if blocked. Also pleased to see EOG application for Inishkea appearing - if this goes through on the initial consultation dates we should get a ruling by 1st week of July. And there is a survey ship lined up to carry this out in July, so the planning work has certainly happened. It may seem slow but the wheels are turning here and like others I hope that this in turn helps move along the decision re farm ins.

Thanks, Anthony. Maybe it’s possible to carry out site surveys slightly later than the drilling window or perhaps not too keen to push ahead until Iolar gets the green light?

Anyone know when the preferred “window” for work in the Irish Sea ends - end Sept or later? If we are to carry out our site surveys this year I would expect to see them appear on the DCCAE site soon, as the consultations seem to drag on for at least 2-3 months with various requests for additional information.

Why would we need a placing, we raised plenty of money last November for the scheduled work and acquisitions this year, and these have still to take place.

Yes, so based on the last such appeal we should get a ruling by 1st week of January 2020 - only 11 months after the appeal was lodged! Wonderfully fast and efficient government - still it’s a firm date in the diary now and I was encouraged by the reference on the Egdon site to this decision being made away from purely local political concerns. One way or the other this should hopefully resolve this endless cycle of frustration.

To answer my own question (!) in part, I see from the DCCAE website today that the consultation period on Iolar should finally end on 29th April. It has already been decided that no EIA is required so hopefully there should be a ruling some time in May. I note however that the decision is open to judicial review, so that may perhaps cause a further delay. So IMO looking more like mid to late summer if it clears all the hurdles?

Just a thought/hope - might our potential farminee be waiting for confirmation that exploratory drilling will get the go ahead politically?

Anyone know more precisely when this is likely to happen and how long it will take to drill? All the references I can see are for “summer” which could be anywhere from May to end September.

Glad we have disposed of this, protected ourselves against more costs and wasted time, and should get at least something back in 6 months time. IMO Holmwood has been a big driver of negative sentiment with endless false starts and a stream of disappointing rns. Couldn’t see it producing any value under current conditions for the foreseeable future.

Thanks, Selfish. I want to believe and hope you are right about the Iolar argument. My doubts creep in because Exxon are top of my guess list for potential partners - mainly because I can’t think why a super major would farm in to Iolar last year unless they are thinking of moving into the area on success or promising shows. If they are thinking of moving in then they are likely to be lining up potential licences to snap up once they have results ahead of the rest of the market. Don’t know, may be I am over thinking this - that’s the trouble with these long and teasing waits!

Personally I welcome the extra 6 Bopd. Although it’s small beer, it does offset the annual decline and provide a little more revenue at least to cover overheads. There is a big difference for me between a company which is covering its overhead costs from revenue than one which has to draw constantly from its fund raising to pay for this. Hopefully this can continue to roll on to other wells, al least until we finally get to see Wressle flowing.

On Morocco I am positive that they are looking beyond Ireland. While it’s easy to focus on Ireland outcomes of total failure or total success, there are surely a range of possible outcomes between these two extremes, involving mixed results? IMO Morocco provides another strand and one that could bring in other investors in due course which would be helpful to those wanting out once the Ireland play result is clearer. However I don’t think that the timescales we have been given for landing the deal - January, then March, now “a few weeks” are great for confidence building. Seems like an unnecessary own goal when in practical terms it makes little difference exactly which month they get this deal over the line, so long as it happens. Why raise expectations when everything in this business tells you it takes longer than you think? Surely better to over estimate the time needed and then surprise on the up side!

Listening to the video Hugh sounds very confident that a farm out will happen, although the time scale is still very open ended and his parting words were about appearing next to talk about Morocco, so may be not expected in immediate future. To be fair on timings he did say when the data rooms first opened that the average farm out now took about a year, so no change in that line, but am still concerned about a deliberate delay by potential partner until after Iolar. On the positive side he did give the impression that they were continuing to press the process and it was very much still live. Thought it a bit odd that having made a big play of the possible impact of the Irish climate change bill in the Interims he didn’t mention it in the interview (unless I missed that?). Am a bit confused about the likely impact of this, I had got the impression that it wasn’t getting very far and in any case unlikely to apply to licences currently being worked. Now the Interims are flagging it up again - has something changed?

Would also have liked to hear a bit more about the level of other interest, particularly re Inishkea, Would be good to know that others were seriously pursuing this, at least as our plan B, especially if we are shelling out for site surveys soon.

I take your point re momentum stalling, Antony, but I am looking more for momentum based on rns newsflow rather than what looked like some twitter driven rise and fall (good as it felt when the sp was rising). I am prepared for news based momentum around potential developments this year to be slower paced, but this still relies on information on progress being released broadly within expected timescales!

As interims now look unlikely before next week, as you say, let’s hope that it’s a sign of something imminent that is worth holding back for or something that’s taking up all available effort to get across the line - not just some administrative hold up that’s slowing down our momentum!

Is it set down anywhere that the interims will be out tomorrow? I know they have been on 4 April last two years, but they were on slightly later dates before that. Here’s hoping it’s tomorrow as some update on progress and/or obstacles encountered would be welcome.

Yes Tacuma, I am sure you are right, I recall something about private equity funding - was this specifically around Inishkea?I can’t track it down in recent RNS or interview. But then as I understand it this is not “the major” we are waiting on, but might be one of the alternatives being explored for funding?

In the Feb interview Hugh refers to the potential company as “a very large company”and their NW Europe Division as “ very large” - not sure that this language fits with Seacrest/Seapulse for me. But still this is yet more confirmation of action from other companies around the areas of interest, all of which sounds very positive for our prospects IMO.

Should be a busy two weeks ahead for news now. Hopefully we will get the overdue Morocco update as soon as, the farm outs have been sitting with the major HQ for at least a full quarter - so enough time to go through review process (if that is part of the delay) and we have the work over results to come. Also with interims due in 10days or so, looking forward to updates on Inishkea interest, progress on preparing the LO/19 PI (due H1), and firmer scheduling for site surveys. Lots of potential here IMO and hopefully the next two weeks should give us some solid and positive news to keep building on from here.

The English may be clumsy but the message is still clear that there is a lot of interest in Morrocco from large and small companies and we are alongside some big names in the list.