Member Info for SeplatWinner

I would like some feedback on my post-acquisition (MPNU) and post-completion (ANOH) spreadsheet. In all the assumptions below, I'm taking the "low/bear"-case as to create a large margin of safety.

Seplat Standalone/Current:

- 50 kboepd

- 2P Liquids ~200MMbbl

- 2P Gas ~1,3BSCF

- 20y current production life

- $130m annual capex for maintenance

- $30m interest

= $250m annual steady state free cash flow (net, net, net)

Valuation: ~ 5x EV/FCF

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Seplat + ANOH

= $250m FCF + $50m FCF from ANOH = $300m/Y

Valuation: ~ 4x EV/FCF

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(Seplat + ANOH) +MPNU

- Deal is sealed but renegotiated to a 30% ownership for Seplat and 70% to NNPC (previous: 40/60)

30% of:

- 95 kboepd

- 2P 400MMBBL

- over 15y of reserves

~$150m FCF (interest up, shares outstanding unchanged)

Seplat+ANOH+MPNU = $250+$50+$150 = $450m FCF

Valuation: ~ 2.6x EV/FCF

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Obviously this is a very rough sketch. Does it align with how you guys see about things?

Can't stress enough how good the numbers will be, once ANOH comes online next year. 10-15 years of guaranteed revenue streams. Huge optionality on the LPG business side of things, as well.

Link: https://i.imgur.com/Q1hwdeB.png

Brent at year high this friday. Seplat will mint cash in 2024, that's for sure.

Only a couple of hundred of shares was traded at 1.41 and 1.42 (year high) so I guess your position wasn't as big. Unfortunately, I was only able to sell 90k shares at 1.385 and again I'm a buyer at these levels. Cheers

Barclays: For 2024, We Increase Brent Forecast by $8/B to $97/B on Significantly Tighter Balance Estimates. Large Inventory Draws over the Coming Months Could Aid a Breakout from the Range-Bound Trade in Oil Markets Year-to-Date.

I'm actually starting to scoop up shares again (Seplat, that is). It looks incredible cheap on 2024-2025 numbers - not to mention far more "sticky" revenues coming online. Agreed, a Nigerian company should carry a discount to North American peers - but at 3-4x earnings one have to bite.

This is such an incredible bargain.

At least two (2) huge catalyst the coming year 1) DCB finalized and thus Going Concern no longer in play and 2) reinstated dividend. Besides double digit growth with a secured backlog, of course.

This could probably 5x in 2-3 years. I do, however, believe PE will acquire it once DCB/Going Concern is finalized.

Considering ANOH coming online in 2024, and where oil prices are currently - aren't we looking at $350-450m free cash flow in 2024 and onwards? Not considering the MPNU deal. Or am I too high in my numbers here?